Posted by Curt on 10 August, 2016 at 10:06 am. 3 comments already!


Stephen Green:

Let’s get ready to ruuuuuuummmmmmmmmmmble!

Most of the convention noise should have filtered out of the polls by now and it’s still too soon for the polls to have registered the new noise. By that of course I mean Hillary Clinton’s “unintentional” campaign appearance with the gay-hating, Taliban-loving father of the Pulse nightclub terrorist right behind her, and Donald Trump’s allusion of “Second Amendment people” to potential assassins. And then there’s Clinton’s “shocking pay-for-play scheme,” except that as Jane’s Addiction warned us almost 30 years ago, when it comes to Hillary, nothing’s shocking.

If you’ll remember, our base map last time around was RCP’s poll averaged result, with all Leaners removed — just showing Trump and Clinton’s Solids and Likelies. Five weeks later and there’s only one small change to the base map: Trump seems to have nailed down Nebraska’s stray EC vote, giving him all five of NE’s semi-splittable votes.

The bad news for Trump is that with 13 weeks to go, he still doesn’t have a lock on the southern tier of red states. The bad news for Clinton is that she still doesn’t have a lock on the northern tier of blue states. But when we look deeper, you’ll see that the bad news is mostly Trump’s.

Let’s add RCP’s Leaners in to see what I mean.

There are a few changes from last month’s map, but two of them may prove vital. Clinton has shored up Maine’s stray split EC vote, which balances out Trump’s similar gain in NE. Trump has slipped in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Wisconsin has slipped out of the Leans Dem column, but Pennsylvania and its treasure trove of 20 EC votes has slipped in. So have Virginia and Colorado, even though just five weeks ago I said that I personally wouldn’t try to call those states yet, “even under the kind of duress involving an ISIS propaganda video crew, my most tender bits, and a finishing hammer.”

CO and VA could prove decisive in Trump’s attempt to turn enough of Obama’s blue states red to beat Clinton.

If we filter out polls of registered voters from 270toWin’s collection of recent surveys from Virginia, the remaining likely voter polls give Clinton an average lead of 44-39. Colorado’s likely voters give similar answers.

In our first go around, I showed you how Trump could win by making an endrunthrough the Rust Belt, where his economic message would seem to play best. So far at least, that message hasn’t been resonating outside his core supporters.

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