by SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER
The situation can only be considered urgent as Ukraine has now made their full intentions crystal clear. If before we suspected with high confidence, now it is plain fact. They intend to destroy the ZNPP plant as a last ditch attempt to ‘activate NATO’ by blaming Russia.
A completely coordinated campaign over the last few days has affirmed this. Not only was Budanov’s maiden speech after reappearing from his Kalibrated cranial trepanation centered on Russia’s alleged ‘mining of the ZNPP’ basement, but now several new instances of highly coordinated messaging have been released by Ukraine and its Western controllers.
(I re-post Budanov’s video just to have them all here in one place for easy reference)
In fact, since that video from days ago, he’s released a new, even more urgently threatening message:
🇺🇦🤡 “The 4th and 6th power units of the Zaporozhye NPP were mined by Russia,” – Kyrylo Budanov
“The situation has never been as serious as it is now.
The plan of the terrorist attack at the ZNPP has been fully developed and approved. To accelerate the catastrophe, they can use technical means,” Budanov stated
Now, Zelensky has made two separate videos where he plainly states that Russia is preparing a massive terrorist attack at the ZNPP plant “just like they did at the Kakhovka dam”. He goes on to sternly warn the world and charge them with the responsibility to act with utmost severity in response to this upcoming Russian attack. He specifically invokes the threat of radiation crossing the borders into other NATO countries for obvious effect.
And a day later, in coordinated fashion, Lindsay Graham threatened Russia with massive NATO retaliation should Russia use any type of “nuclear” aggravation:
He even put forth a new resolution which specifically quotes the ‘destruction of a nuclear facility’ and ‘dispersing radioactive contaminants’ as an attack on NATO itself:
Obviously, this is quite ironic and hypocritical given that it was the U.S. and UK that just announced the supply of radioactive DU ammunition, which does exactly what Graham here describes in spreading radioactive contaminants.
The official Russian embassy account, quoting Russian envoy to the U.S., fired back, stating that in the event of a conflict between Russia and NATO, the U.S. would not be able to “hide behind the ocean”, clearly referencing nuclear strikes:
Western press is already running with the narrative:
What can one say, the West’s leaders are clearly psychopathic. They have already destroyed a major pipeline in the Nordstream in an obvious terrorist attack and now they are planning one on Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.
Ukrainian presidential advisor Podolyak added to the orchestrated release with his own statement, slowly conditioning the narrative that Russia is losing its grip on Energodar and will blow the plant to “stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive”.
Intrinsic to his statement is the clear threat to Europe, contributing to the theory that this ploy is in fact a part of Ukraine’s nuclear blackmail.
By the way, it should be mentioned that the IAEA reportedly released a statement denying Budanov’s claims, so that will be interesting to watch. Despite the agency’s corruption perhaps they’re not entirely suicidal and psychopathic:
But I’ll post this again to show the corrupt IAEA has already been exposed as a surveillance arm of the AFU:
However, to begin building the groundswell of the narrative, the Ukrainian health ministry even released these preparatory safety alerts for citizens to stay safe during a nuclear radiation accident:
Russia even arrested saboteurs with Cesium-137 on them:
🇷🇺The FSB detained five people who were trying to smuggle 1 kg of radioactive Cesium-137 worth $3.5 million abroad.
It’s reported that it was intended for use in the SMO zone in order to discredit Russia.
The suspects have been arrested and are making confessions. A case has been initiated on the illegal handling of radioactive substances and preparations for their smuggling.
I’d say sooner or later we can expect some sort of Nuclear incident in Ukraine
But, can they really do it? Firstly, a potential ZNPP attack invokes images of Chernobyl, vast exclusion zones and thousands poisoned and dead. But there are very large differences.
Firstly, Chernobyl exploded with an unprecedented force after its pressure vessel reached immense pressures due to a concatenation of highly improbable events. The explosion was so powerful as to generate discussion amongst experts to this day whether the reactor had actually gone ‘critical’—meaning, fission had actually occurred thereby creating a mini nuclear explosion at the reactor.
My point is that such an explosion is hardly possible at the ZNPP. For one: the power plant, as I understand it, is in some form of cold shutdown. This means that the rods have been retracted and the danger of any sort of mass catastrophe of this sort is very low. You’re not going to recreate the power of the Chernobyl blast with manmade means. I don’t know how many tons of TNT you’d have to put there, but it would be a lot—and where would you put them? Underneath the containment vessel itself? A lot of the prospects don’t make much sense.
Much of the disaster and ensuing contamination from the Chernobyl incident was due to the power of the explosion and how far it sent all the radioactive pieces of the core. There were chunks of Uranium being found tens of kilometers or more, and the radioactive dust, etc. had plumed everywhere. This would be extremely difficult to achieve at the ZNPP, particularly with any “ordinary” strike. Even a severe cruise missile strike on the reactor itself, as an example, would not achieve anything even remotely resembling the Chernobyl incident, and in fact would only create a ‘localized’ disaster.
With that said, we should not ignore the fact that it doesn’t matter how bad the disaster actually is, the West will ‘manufacture’ the scale which suits them. So even if a minor blast were to occur, with a minor release of radiation, the West and its corrupt lapdog agencies will manufacture whatever false ‘data’ is necessary to push the agenda that, for instance, ‘massive plumes of radiation have gone into Poland/Europe/NATO’, etc.
Thus, one idea for the falseflag is that it doesn’t actually need to create the catastrophe itself, but rather the appearance of one.
Next, how would Ukraine conceivably do this? What precise plan or storyline could they concoct for the falseflag? Well, I believe Budanov himself already gave up the goods on this one in his ‘return’ speech. After stating that Russia mined the ZNPP, he specifically implied that Russia may blow it while retreating “just as they did to the Kakhovka last year”—referencing the destruction of the roadway (which we still don’t know who was actually responsible for) on the dam last November.
So one possible angle is that as Ukrainian forces make an attack to seize the plant, the plant could somehow be blown via strikes which would be blamed on Russian forces having mined and sabotaged it so that it doesn’t fall into Ukrainian hands.
This is one falseflag contingency that works even if Ukraine doesn’t necessarily capture the plant itself—just the specter of its capture can facilitate this. However, it’s more difficult to pull off because how exactly would they blow it if they don’t have full control of it yet? They can attempt to strike it but this is very risky as any sort of missile/bomb/drone strike can be tracked and filmed with the proper culprit established. It’s safer to blow it by actually taking control of it then mining it from the inside.
So that brings me to the only other possibility. If they were to seize it, they can then claim that Russia attacked their positions out of spite, or simply blew the pre-laid explosives that Russian forces setup prior to retreating from the plant, etc. This is more doable because it allows Ukraine to blow it from the inside without any type of evidence being possible to pin them to the crime like in the previous example.
The truth is, they likely have contingencies for both, because they’ll settle for whichever one they can get. Capturing it would perhaps be preferable, but if their forces get repulsed in a mass attempt to capture it, they can very likely also activate Plan B, which is to strike the reactors and claim that their heroic forces had already expelled Russians from the plant and the Russians blew it as they were retreating.
The thing you have to understand is, Western MSM will shill and cover for whatever “the plan” is. And when there is an ongoing battle happening, the ‘fog of war’ creates a scenario where establishing exact details is impossible, particularly when the entire Western propaganda organ will be pumping false information. So that’s all to say that, all they really need to do is launch an attack to generate a few videos of Ukrainian forces somewhere near the plant.
Russian forces could very well repel them but the simple appearance of the AFU being somewhere near the plant and fighting will be presented in Western media as “heroic Ukrainian forces gloriously recapturing the ZNPP as the Russians flee and retreat!”. Russian forces may very well fully repel the attack and not take one step back. But as long as there is an appearance of a fight near the plant, the MSM will easily convince Western audiences that Russians have already “fled” from the plant and Ukraine has in fact “seized it”, and then blowing the plant with an attack can easily be sold as “Russian forces sabotaged and blew it as they retreated”.
It would be very easy to pull this off because we see it pulled off daily in a variety of battles all over Ukraine. Even in the recent offensive there were some battles where the AFU got completely demolished yet a few hand-selected videos of combat showing them in a favorable light is sold to the Western audience on every major MSM headline as a huge Ukrainian victory, with hundreds of Russian troops fleeing, killed, etc., etc. A complete warping of reality, and there’s no way to stop it.
For instance, just take two case studies to understand my point: Mariupol and Bakhmut. When the Azovstal surrender happened, it was sold to Western audiences as some kind of “big victory for Azovstal defenders.” All the headlines presented it as a deal which favored Ukraine where the Azov forces were simply being ‘re-oriented’ to another direction and not actually captured. It was extremely bizarre to watch it happen yet Western audiences bought it hook, line, and sinker.
In Bakhmut, we see to this day that a large part of Ukrainian supporters still don’t even know that the city has fallen. The MSM is selling a narrative that the AFU is actually still entrenched somewhere in the southwest portion of the city and are advancing deeper into it each day. This is verified by the fact that even on wikipedia, the “Battle of Bakhmut” page shows the battle as still ‘in progress’ and refuses to denote it as a Russian victory.
They can easily pull the wool over credulous Westerner’s eyes in the same way when it comes to the ZNPP. In fact, it’s so easy because these people have already pre-made their judgments. Take one glance at social media and you’ll see that without it even happening yet, they’ve already convinced themselves and each other that it’s Russia who destroyed the ZNPP even though it hasn’t happened yet. So no matter what evidence will eventually be given to the contrary, they will never stray from their initial belief.
The only way Russia can combat this is by putting up a lot of sensors and cameras at the ZNPP so that if and when they do repel a potential AFU attack and Zelensky decides to strike the plant, the chosen strike vector could be recorded in some way so as to present indisputable proof that it came from Ukraine.
Of course, this will still be sold as ‘fake Russian lies’ to the West, but at least Russia will have covered its bases with its own allies, and will have credible proof for them to know who is the true culprit so that they have Russia’s back in case things escalate to a real WW3 scenario.
Recall that prominent Ukrainians have previously openly advocated for the targeting of nuclear plants. For instance, here’s far-right Ukrainian political leader Dmitro Korchynsky advocating for just that:
He says the only way to stop Russia is to strike the nuclear plants even if it creates a lot of collateral casualties it’s still worth it.
We should also mention that recently Russian SVR director stated the following:
⚡️⚡️⚡️Information has appeared that Kiev may continue to work on the creation of a “dirty nuclear bomb” – director of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation⚡️⚡️⚡️
And Arestovich again made a new statement in an interview days ago that Ukraine can acquire nuclear weapons “very quickly” should they need to.
Also, new videos from the reservoir floor appear to show the lake bed drying out perhaps much faster than many people expected. It’s difficult to tell the exact soil consistency but judge for yourself:
But as far as the ZNPP: The only question that remains is when would they do this? Are they desperate enough to already enact such a plan, or is this a warning, and they’re saving it for much later when things get really terminal for the AFU?
It can partly be interpreted as a threat against NATO/EU as well, because it’s Zelensky and the SBU’s way of basically using nuclear blackmail to beg for more assistance. In short, saying, “If you don’t help us win, we’ll have no choice but to blow the plant and force you into WW3 against Russia.”
It’s difficult to know the answer, but one thing that’s certain is that things are getting critical for the AFU in terms of overstretching fronts. They’ve suffered grave losses in the southern direction, and now they’re being unexpectedly stretched in the north Kharkov region, for which they’re reportedly sending large amounts of patchwork reinforcements.
To highlight this, news came a couple days ago that Ukraine is calling for a mass-scale mobilization throughout the entire country. Some have mistaken this for a mobilization only in the Ivano-Frankovsk region, as a document from that region was being circulated. But in fact, the link above confirms it’s for every region, they just each release their own separate documents. The new mobilization appears to give 10 days for all males over the age of 18 to report to their nearest recruitment office.
This follows a new Ukrainian television report that over 20,000 draft dodgers are being sought just in the Chernigov region alone. That appears to be a gargantuan amount for a small region:
There are now two separate reports claiming that anywhere upwards of 90k to 300-500k new troops are intended to be mobilized:
🇺🇦 Recruitment centers in Ukraine have been instructed to mobilize up to 90,000 people to conduct accelerated training under NATO programs and send them to the front.
The reason is the huge losses during the counteroffensive.
Mass mobilization in Ivano-Frankivsk and Kiev is connected with this.
According to Turkish sources, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are urgently planning to recruit between 300,000 and 500,000 people as part of a new mobilization effort. This comes after significant losses in Bakhmut and Zaporizhia, where both elite NATO forces and untrained recruits suffered setbacks. These losses must be quickly addressed. Ukraine’s population was once 44 million, but 17 million have since left the country. With about 1 million in losses and over 2 million wounded, deserters, and fleeing criminals, the pool for mobilization is dwindling. Additionally, a portion of the Ukrainian population now resides in Russia. As a result, Ukraine’s capacity for further mobilization is nearly exhausted.
Two problems with this:
Firstly, I don’t think they can actually mobilize even a tiny fraction of any of those numbers. Secondly, whatever number they do mobilize will clearly be on a highly accelerated training schedule for the reasons I’m going to talk about next, and these will basically be the lowest possible level of cannon-fodder of the barest possible usefulness on the frontline.
I’ll also mention that recently some have propounded the idea that Ukraine can’t run out of manpower because a constant stream of troops are being trained in NATO countries to replace what they’re losing on the front. I’ve already stated that these amount to only 2-3k per month or less, yet Ukraine is losing upwards of 5-10k per month, so they’re still in a large deficit. But now there’s been a new confirmation, as the EU has released a statement that they plan to train a total of 30k new UA troops for the entirety of 2023:
This is even lower than my estimate, as it amounts to 2,500 per month trained. Recall, that losing even 100 men per day is 3,000 lost per month. Ukraine is losing anywhere in the 250-700 rate per day, particularly during heightened intensity periods of fighting.
In fact, Russia’s latest numbers are 10-13k casualties for the AFU since the start of the offensive on June 4th. Thus: the measly 30k per year trained are a drop in the bucket and not enough to make up losses. For those who don’t believe Ukraine is suffering that many losses, note how a regional governor in Ukraine has added electric scooters to his cemeteries because they have grown so large that people can’t even walk from one end of the cemetery to the other anymore: