Ukraine War SITREP- Major Russian Offensive Confirmed Imminent

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by Simplicius The Thinker

Since we’re getting so close to approaching the nail-biting period of February 21 – 24 that so many are anticipating, I figured it’ll be good to compile all the recent, top developments regarding the potential for a new ‘major’ Russian offensive. Some of them have already been mentioned in a previous update, but we’ll cite them again to centralize all relevant materials.
 
1. First, there are two reputable channels which are now confirming major actions are coming within a week. Romanov Lite, who many of you know, is a Crimean based commentator who also works with some Russian/Donbass units, helping supply them and is often seen on the lines with them, often has insider info as he speaks directly to the troops. He posted this message that it is soon GO TIME:
 

 
Note, the specific confirmation of something we predicted here in one of the recent reports, which is that the offensive is likely to kick off, not all at once but in several stages in order to maximize confusion, allow a little lead time for AFU to frantically send reserves to one direction to caulk the flow, only for a completely different direction to massively kick off into un-reinforced territory.
 
2. Then, another reputable channel issued this urgent call of alarm:

“From “2 Majors” TG Channel:
—
Residents of Ukraine
 
Everyone understands that the past month, during which the Russian Armed Forces seized the initiative, was a preparation . Open sources mention the Sumy, Chernigov, Kharkov and Zaporizhia as possible directions for an offensive.
 
People living in these territories can see for themselves signs of how the AFU are preparing these cities and areas for defense. The area is being mined, fortifications are being built, military columns and buses with mercenaries are moving.
 
The Ukrainian command has good intelligence from American satellites, processed by experienced analytical centers.
 
But official Kiev does not announce the evacuation of the population. Because fortified areas are being built in cities and the civilian population will once again become a human shield. Evacuation in Kupyansk was announced after the Russian Armed Forces approached the city at 7-10 km.
 
It is absolutely necessary for Ukrainians to leave these cities. The Russian Armed Forces will no longer conduct a police operation. Such nonsense as it was in Mariupol, when the position of an enemy sniper/machine gunner could not be demolished because in a dilapidated five-story building “there can be civilians”, will no longer apply.
 
And after all the horrific videos of tortures and shootings of our soldiers, the joyful reaction of a large number of Ukrainians to them, the attitude of soldiers and officers to “peaceful population” has changed somewhat.”

3. Recently we had the first ever confirmation—with actual photographic evidence—of Russian force buildups on Ukraine’s border resembling those of pre-Feb. 2022. Here are satellite photos of one of them; there are reportedly such camps in Kursk and Voronezh regions, which are directly above Sumy and Kharkov oblasts of Ukraine.
 
4. There are now several reports of large field hospitals being constructed in at least two different regions, again reminiscent of exactly what happened last time prior to the start of the SMO. And a senior lieutenant of the AFU stated that 10,000 Russian troops have amassed across the border from Sumy.

Senior Lieutenant of the Armed Forces Andrey Gulakov for The Times
 
According to him, the invaders built a field hospital there, and this is an indicator that the Russians are planning offensive actions, as they did last year.

Interestingly, this is characterized as ‘the largest concentration that’s ever been there’, including in the buildup of last year. 10k doesn’t seem like a lot of troops. But it only goes to show the accuracy of our premise from the Part 1 report, which found that Russia used only a small fraction of the troops everyone thought they did. Last year’s Sumy incursion must have likewise been very small, a brigade or two in size (or rather, several BTG’s).
 

 
Also, you can see in the above post that Russians have reportedly laid gravel on the routes along the border, nullifying the rasputitsa problems.
 
Another report:

According to foreign intelligence, there is a tactical group of the Russian Armed Forces with a total of 26,800 people on the territory of Belarus. The group of forces is armed with 18 combat aircraft and 25 helicopters of various types, as well as 116 tanks, including T-90, and several hundred armored combat vehicles.

Additionally, enemy intelligence notes that we have deployed 6 Iskander missile launchers and 26 different types of MLRS. In the city of Grodno, a hospital base is deployed on the basis of the 1134th VCMC.
 
5. A massive 80km long convoy of Russian army supply trucks is reported to be currently in transit slowly through mud between Mariupol & Berdiansk, according to ‘advisor to the mayor of Mariupol’ Petro Andryuschenko. Keep in mind this is the exiled Ukrainian ‘ex-advisor’ to the previous Mariupol administration prior to its liberation.
 

 

 
Andryuschenko is the same one who reported last time that Russian troops have massively increased by ‘tens of thousands’ north of Mariupol, which was later specified as going from 10k to 30k troops.
 

 
6. Ukrainian MP Goncharenko claims that in far western Belarus, a group of ‘Wagner’ soldiers were spotted.
 

 
7. And buses reportedly full of 1700 Wagner soldiers are being sent toward Zaporozhe (one of the imminent lines of attack in the coming offensive):
 


 
However, some believe they could be headed to Ugledar, which would make more logical sense as Wagner fighters are known as urban combat specialists. And in the last few days, Russian Marines have finally entrenched themselves in the first urban settlements right at the outskirts of Ugledar, which could mean that Wagner is now being sent in to prepare for actual urban storming of said town.


 

 
8. Russian Buks and other AD is also seen moving from the Mariupol direction toward the likely offensive vectors:
 


 
9. Now, keep in mind there are also dissenting voices who claim that not only is no ‘large offensive’ coming any time soon, but that Russia is in fact ‘incapable’ of even launching any such offensive.
 

 

 
10. We reported the alleged numbers last time, but will collate it here again:

“The Russian Federation has prepared 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 Soviet-era self-propelled guns, such as Grad and Smerch, 400 fighter jets, and 300 helicopters for the upcoming massive attack on Ukraine . Foreign Policy writes about it .”
 

Specifically, in light of the 700-750 jets and helicopters, there are also rumors circulating on Ukrainian airwaves that Russian airforce will not only operate in a wholly new doctrine in the coming offensive, but have already been seen doing this recently.

“Previously, the aviation was protected, it almost did not fly into the zone of action of the Ukrainian air defense. Now they decided to change the tactics,” says the interlocutor of the journalists. According to the journalist’s source, the Russian Federation still has an advantage in aviation over the Armed Forces. Despite the fact that Russian planes and helicopters will be shot down en masse, this will create certain problems for the Ukrainian army.”

The ‘new doctrine’ entails the usage of Russian airpower incursions much deeper into the heart of Ukrainian land, rather than skirting the edges of the contact lines for fear of being shot down, as they do now.
 

 
Ignore the angsty cope in the above tweet, it’s simply to reference the ‘rumors’ of the Russian MoD’s shift in strategy.
 
There are claims that in the past couple of weeks, Russian jets have already been doing this, as well as “new types of drones.” Not only have a few interesting videos turned up—one of them showing a Russian Su-24M flying over Kherson at an altitude high enough to suggest it had zero fear of AD (i.e. 3000-5000ft rather than the usual 100-300ft), but also a few days ago the AFU complained that some sort of new ‘long range’ and ‘high altitude’ set of drones were flying deep over their territory in the following route:
 

 
They said they flew at upwards of 18,000 – 20,000ft which is extremely high for most of the types of drones in this conflict. This coincided with a large Russian loitering drone strike only days later which was carried out by some “new type” of drone with a notably different sonic pattern than the famous Shahed/Geran/Dorito ‘lawnmower’ noise. These drones had a much ‘deeper’ motor sound suggestive of perhaps a larger or more powerful drone.

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After Biden openly called for Putin’s assassination, and western regime propaganda pushes the “just kill Putin and the war will be over” lie, I wonder if Putin might “kill two birds with one stone” in Kiev right now…

That would end the war, too, right?

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