The Leaks to End All Leaks: What the Classified Information about US and NATO Plans for Ukraine Means

by SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER

First it must be noted that there’s been a sharp uptick in the shrillness of desperation in the Western MSM reportage this past week. Ever since the Leaks to end all Leaks dropped, it’s been nothing but doom and gloom and panic.

These articles all talk about the inarguable mood in the air being that of a ‘last hurrah’ from which Ukraine will never recover, if their next offensive goes sour.

Of course, this can be read in several ways. The leaks could be a vast psyop and misdirection campaign, which Russian government officials have already acknowledged to being possible. Or, the leaks could truly be real, and have revealed such uncomfortable truths about everything inside Ukraine, that the vast yet fragile propaganda house of cards that’s been holding the AFU up is slowly coming undone.

The leaked classified information about the US and NATO plans for Ukraine might have been caused by US military and government officials frustrated with the Biden administration’s “demand for a US victory against Russia, where none is possible,” Karen Kwiatkowski, retired US Air Force Lieutenant Colonel and former analyst for the US Department of Defense, told Sputnik.

“It could also be frustration by intelligence producers inside the Pentagon or elsewhere with the political demands for shaped and tailored output, an output that eliminates researched and objective analysis in order to align with and support the political desires of the administration,” Kwiatkowski mused.

Retired US diplomat James Jatras told Sputnik that the leak “indicates that there are some dissident voices within the US government who are not comfortable with the direction of policy.”

Those elements “would like to slow it down or maybe even change its course” but are still “a distinct minority within the establishment,” he stressed.

The Senate adviser said it was significant that the leak came from the Department of Defense, not his old employer, the State Department.

“There are people within the military who realize that we’re moving toward a potential disaster in Ukraine. Those are more realistic people,” Jatras said. “They’re familiar with the hard facts of military power,” while the State Department and the White House “believe their own propaganda.”

The problem with the leaks being a psyop angle, is that not only have there been many damaging revelations vis a vis U.S.’s relations to other countries, but the leaks have confirmed many inconvenient things we’ve already been taking notice of. For instance, the way they exposed the near-depletion of UA’s air defense network is something that has already been getting hysterical outcries from the AFU itself, as recently Russia’s uptick in glide-bomb and guided bomb usage has gone up so drastically that it’s being noticed on every front. The AFU admits to being badly hammered and unable to stop it.

In the past week or so, there has been a major onslaught on UA ammo depots in particular, which UA channels have confirmed. Here is one such transmission from last night (autotranslated):

The translation is a little wonky but he’s basically saying Russia’s new guided bombs are not a moped (Geran/Shahed drone), not a “Hail” stone (Hail is the translation for ‘Grad’ MLRS), and not a 152mm artillery shell. In short, they are saying these new guided bombs are massively more powerful and are doing serious damage.

“Minus the opornik” means forts/fortifications destroyed, the rest is self-explanatory. The post further admits how their air defense can barely do anything anymore in stopping this.

There are daily reports now of various types of new guided bombs hitting everything in Ukraine:

According to Turkish sources, a column of the Ukrainian Armed Forces brigade, which approached the fortifications northeast of the Ugledar line as reinforcements, was hit yesterday by Russian fighters who dropped FAB-500 and UPAB-1500 glide bombs from a distance of up to 60 km. Most of the column was destroyed or scattered.

Just two days ago a guided munition blew a Ukrainian bridge in Chernigov region: VIDEO 1 (Alt Link).

It was first reported as a glide bomb, however it appears to now have been confirmed as a TV-guided air-to-ground Kh-59 missile fired by a Russian Su-34.

And this right at the time as Shoigu was visiting a factory production line, showing the most massive of Russia’s Fab-3000 and Fab-9000 bombs being newly manufactured: VIDEO.

About 10 arrivals of FABs are recorded daily in the Bakhmut direction. UA losses are growing. Sometimes it is possible for UA to retake a certain position, but then there is a rollback and even deeper. . RU trying to break UA defense from the side of Khromovo, Ivanivske.

This comes on the heels of many new, frank admissions by the U.S., such as a sudden newfound respect and fear of Wagner group:

US military experts are concerned about the effectiveness of the Wagner PMCs – a source in the US Defense Ministry said.

As DC Weekly writes experts of the Ministry of Defense conducted an in-depth analysis of the activities of the Wagner PMCs and came to the conclusion that no American, British or French similar structure can compare with their units.

Insiders in the Ministry of Defense are concerned about the Wagner PMCs, because it is the most highly organized and combat-ready PMCs in the world, surpassing even the American Blackwater PMCs, the British Aegis Defense Service PMCs, the French Salamandre PMCs,” writes the author of the publication Peter Carroll.

The author notes that, among other things, the mentioned Western PMCs have never encountered operations and tasks that the Wagner PMCs successfully performs.

Thanks to the highest level of training and equipment, the Russians operate at a level previously unattainable for private military companies.

An unnamed Pentagon official involved in this type of operation in Afghanistan said: “Their effectiveness is absolutely staggering. If we had used similar strategies in Afghanistan, we would not have created the mess we left behind in the Middle East.“

According to many expert estimates, the Wagner fighters perform a number of tasks of increased complexity and risk. These are not only traditional tasks for all PMCs, such as the protection of diplomatic missions and civilian operations.

These are, in general, the most complex combat operations in their implementation: ground attacks, control of artillery, aviation weapons and the use of air defense systems.

As the author notes, the fighters of the Wagner PMCs perform reconnaissance tasks, information collection and data analysis, which were later used to make strategic decisions during missions.

Earlier, Dutch journalist Sonia van den Ende said (https://devend.online/2023/03/14/wagner-can-become-the-main-weapon-of-anti-globalism-in-the-modern-world/) that “Wagner” can become the main weapon of anti-globalism in the modern world and get rid of the domination of oligarchic elite groups of the West, which is ruinous for the entire human civilization.

A new source of despair has even been the worsening drone situation, as AFU reports that Russian EW capabilities are becoming increasingly widespread and more powerful.

According to The Guardian, soldiers operators of the Ukrainian forces in the area of the city of Bakhmut are concerned that after three months they will not be able to use the available quadcopters due to the improving Russian jamming systems.

According to them, the maximum range in the area of the city of Bakhmut is 500 meters, compared to 3 kilometers in December. While the Russian artillery takes positions 3 kilometers behind the front line, then withdraws.

This has extended to newly released leaks from last week’s leak batch which report that Russia’s EW has completely nullified the U.S.’s new JDAM-ERs:

The US is investigating a malfunction in the operation of JDAM smart bomb guidance systems that occurred in Ukraine, among the reasons considered the actions of Russian forces, according to the American television channel NBC News, citing secret documents that allegedly belong to the Pentagon that ended up online.

This Business Insider article reveals that in the leaks, a BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) was shown for presumably a target that the U.S. helped allocate to the AFU.

One document in particular highlights concerns about US-made bomb kits which have been sent to Ukraine in recent months. The document is titled “Why are JDAM-ERs Failing? BDA From Recent Strike?” and has markings that show it is secret in nature and not to be revealed to any foreign governments.

The leaked intelligence document on the JDAMs reviews several issues that this weapon has faced on the battlefield in Ukraine and outlines two factors potentially explaining why there have been “duds and/or misses.” One factor is the bomb fuses aren’t arming at their release, which Ukraine’s air force has worked to fix. 

The other factor, according to the document, is that suspected Russian GPS jamming has gotten in the way of JDAM-ER operations and has caused some misses, which it says has happened before with Ukraine’s guided multiple launch rockets (GMLRS).

It goes on to say that 4 out of the 9 bombs dropped completely missed due to being jammed:

At the time of the document’s publication — which, for many of the documents that were leaked, is late February or early March — Ukraine’s air force had dropped at least nine JDAM-ER bombs against Russian targets, but four of them appear to have missed due to Russian jamming. The confidence in this particular assessment was medium to high. The document recommended neutralizing the jammers as before JDAM-ERs are used for best results.

For anyone that’s followed my work for a long time, you’ll know I posted the famous Dr. Philip Karber speech at West Point, where he talks about exactly this capability of Russia. He mentions how Russian EW can even fry the electronic fuses on American guided Excalibur artillery shells before they land:

The entire second half of this video talks about a lot of the Russian capabilities which are now being proven in Ukraine:

More and more the mood appears to be shifting towards acceptance of a new reality.

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