The Impact of RFK Jr.’s Independent Run on the Newsom vs. Trump Election

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by Sundance

Many people are talking about this today; it is an interesting dynamic.

According to Mediaite with the exclusive first story, Robert Kennedy Jr. will announce his transition from a candidate on the Democrat ticket to a candidate on the Independent ticket for the 2024 presidential contest.  RFK Jr. will make the announcement on October 9th, in Pennsylvania.

(Via Mediaite) 2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. plans to announce he will run as an independent on October 9 in Pennsylvania, Mediaite has learned.

Kennedy’s campaign machine is now planning “attack ads” against the Democratic National Committee in order to “pave the way” for his announcement in Philadelphia about running as an independent, according to a text reviewed by Mediaite.

“Bobby feels that the DNC is changing the rules to exclude his candidacy so an independent run is the only way to go,” a Kennedy campaign insider told Mediaite. (more)

My thoughts are the same today as they were when we first discussed RFK Jr.

None of the Lightbringer’s supporters/voters and ballot harvesters are going to support RFK Jr.  None of the leftists who follow social media or traditional media influence operations, the sheeple masses, are going to vote for RFK Jr.  None of the party Democrats are going to vote for RFK Jr.  None of the Gavin Newsom supporters are going to support RFK Jr.

So, who will vote for RFK Jr?

ANSWER: Two core groups.

#1) Ron DeSantis supporters.  When RdS drops out, his coalition of support, the Never Trump Republicans, will flow to RFK Jr. 

#2) Approximately one-third of unregistered, unaffiliated or what we would call “independent” voters.  About a third of them.

Independents will fracture into three subsets.  Approximately 1/3 supporting Gavin Newsom. Approximately 1/3 supporting Donald Trump.  Approximately 1/3 supporting Robert Kennedy Jr.

With DeSantis Republicans and one-third of independent voters, that’s the RFK Jr. coalition.

As I said from the outset, RFK Jr. is the intelligence community insurance policy against the threat of Donald Trump.

RFK Jr. running as an independent will tilt the election to Gavin Newsom.

Stop thinking about RFK Jr. taking votes from Biden.  Unfortunately, this will be the narrative; this will be what is polled.  However, Joe Biden will not be the DNC nominee.

The correct question is, what does RFK Jr. running as an independent do to the 2024 contest when it is Gavin Newsom -vs- Donald Trump?

In that scenario, the motives and intentions of RFK Jr. taking votes from Biden, because Joe Biden is a blithering idiot, disappears.  Democrats will happily stick with Newsom…. which is exactly why his visibility is everywhere right now.  It’s an op.

RFK Jr. running as an independent, is part of that op.

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Robin Ware/Robert L. Peters/JRB Ware/Pedo Peter/idiot Biden’s won’t defect. They’re stupid and not interested in anyone that is “moderate”, even if RFK, Jr. only LOOKS moderate compared to the rest of the Democrat field. But, the bulk of Robin Ware/Robert L. Peters/JRB Ware/Pedo Peter/idiot Biden’s voters were copy machines, not people. But, he won’t draw any votes from Trump.

I don’t think DeSantis voters will flock to RFK, Jr, though. I think they support DeSantis as a “clean” (as in no baggage… YET) version of Trump. They are under the delusion that DeSantis won’t get the same treatment Trump is getting if he were the threat. But, without him, most will support Trump.