The Great War of Attrition: How Russia’s Slow Collapse Strategy is Weakening Ukraine

by SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER

There aren’t a whole lot of significant battlefield updates just yet, so I wanted to take this time to project what the medium-term future will look like based on Ukraine and the West’s signaled plans for the next 6 months and more.

But first, let’s summarize roughly where things stand, particularly vis a vis the grand summer ‘offensive’ so that we’re all on the same page as to where the conflict currently stands narratively.

Early this year, Ukraine began to outfit two separate ‘army corps’ of maneuver brigades specifically for the coming ‘counter-offensive’. These were the 9th Corps and the 10th Corps. The 9th Corps was meant to be the—mostly—NATO-armed and trained one which was famously revealed in the Pentagon leaks. It consisted of the 9 named maneuver brigades, which were the 116th, 47th, 33rd, 21st, 32nd, 37th, 118th, 117th, and the 82nd air assault.

Out of these, the 47th was said to be the most elite, cobbled from all ‘volunteers’ who signed up specifically from other units and were trained in the UK and were armed with 99 x M2A2 Bradleys as well as American M109 Paladins for artillery.

The role of the two army corps was that the 9th was meant to be the breakthrough brigade which reached the first ‘main line of defense’, the notorious ones with dragon teeth that Russia spent months constructing. Upon reaching this line, the 10th Corps was meant to be the ‘breakthrough’ force which then took over for the 9th, pouring in another fresh 9-12 brigades through the gap to create an unstoppable opening.

💥💬💥Yaakov Kedmi on why Western instructors have taught the Ukrainian armed forces nothing:

“Neither the British nor the French, no one has ever trained and tried to break through echeloned defence systems. They don’t know how to do it, they’ve never done it. So it is unlikely that they can teach it. Yes, there are certain units in the American army – armoured units. But much more organised, with professional soldiers.

The American armoured division practised how to break through an echeloned defence line. But they’ve never done that in any war, not even in World War II. They fight differently. So there’s nothing to teach them.

To break through Russia’s echeloned defence, you have to throw at least one division into the breach and after a while replace it with another. Because it will be all destroyed in the first stages of the breakthrough, having advanced in just one or two lines. Further on it needs more and more! They can’t do it. Firstly, they don’t have that much force. Secondly, any attempt to concentrate large formations before attacking makes them an excellent target for artillery and air attacks.

Western armies are not ready for the kind of war, the kind of military actions that are being waged in Ukraine today and will be waged tomorrow. They are not ready for modern serious military operations by large army formations against the Russian army.”

The 9th experienced catastrophic losses from the start of the offensive on June 4th onward, as we all know. There are rumors that entire brigades were wiped out—for instance, this odd headline about the 32nd (one of the 9 from 9th Corps) which apparently was ‘mysteriously’ shipped out to a dead frontline:

 
Or this one, which details how several of the 9th Corps brigades seemed to be completely missing in action:

 
What was interesting is that, as per the 32nd brigade above, yesterday some new documents were leaked online which appeared to show that the 32nd was remanded due to mass desertion/mutiny and refusal to follow orders:

[metaslider id=175010]
 
Furthermore, there were reports online from alleged loved ones and relations of the soldiers from the 32nd that an entire battalion was completely ‘destroyed’:

According to captured documents and confirmed by social media messages from distraught loved ones, an entire battalion of the 32nd Separate Rifle Brigade of the Ukrainian Army has been wiped out. 🪦🇺🇦

So the 9th Corps was not able to reach Russia’s first line of defense and the brigades had appeared to be too degraded to go on any further, many of them withdrawn to refit/reconstitute in the rear. The 10th Corps was then injected prematurely to take over, which is what this new ‘second phase’ has been all about since the end of July.

Keep in mind, no one actually knows for certain regarding the 10th Corps, but the above has been the main narrative not only of NYTimes reporters who first broke the story but Rob Lee and Kofman who’ve now certified this narrative of the 10th Corps’ take over.

Some context: Ukraine had, according to the Pentagon leaks, about 34 maneuver brigades, with another 27 TDF (Territorial Defense Forces) brigades likely capable of mostly holding trenches and without much heavy weaponry or armor, and 9 artillery brigades total left in the war. This is 61 total infantry/armor brigades which are meant to hold a frontline 1,300km long. This averages to 1300/61 = 21km per brigade. Note that in Soviet doctrine a brigade should hold something like no more than 2-3km at most and an entire division should hold 10km. Not to mention that Ukrainian brigades are at most 4000 men when they should be 5000, most are 3000 and apparently, even according to MSM articles covering them, some are 2000.

Some will ask, how is it possible that Russia is not overwhelming the AFU with such thin lines and battered brigades. Recall that Russia is only fighting this war with a percentage of its armed forces. The Russian army has classically had anywhere between 50-65% contract with 50-35% conscripts, and as you know, the MOD is not allowing conscripts to fight here. That means Russia is only using about ~60% of its total bayonet strength while Ukraine is using everyone—all Ukrainian troops are conscripts force-mobilized straight from the street.

Not to mention there are still hundreds of thousands (official number 340k) of ‘National Guard’ that Russia is not utilizing while Ukraine uses its full national guard, police force, and everything in between as frontline assault. Russia has typically only used small specialized Rosgvardia ‘special forces’ like FSVNG rather than the regular national guard itself. Thus, Russia is fighting this entire war as an exclusively contracted, professional military force while leaving hundreds of thousands of troops not committed. Ukraine on the other hand is committing everything imaginable.

This segues into the next section. For those who’ve followed my recent reports you’ll note I’ve been keeping track of Russia’s ongoing ‘stealth mobilization’. In June, Putin had the roundtable with reporters where he answered about a potential future mobilization—I’ll repost his response here again:

Vladimir Putin:

Is additional mobilization needed? I don’t follow this closely, but some public figures say that we urgently need to raise another million, two million. It depends on what we want. At the end of the Great Patriotic War, we had almost 5 million in the armed forces.

It depends on the purpose. Our troops were at Kiev. Do we need to go back or not? I am asking a rhetorical question, it is clear that you have no answer to it. I can only answer it myself. But depending on what goals we set for ourselves, we must decide on the issue of mobilization. Well, there is no such need today.

We have started work since January of this year – we have recruited over 150,000 contract servicemen. And together with volunteers – 156 thousand. And our mobilization was 300 thousand. Under these conditions, the Ministry of Defense reports that, of course, there is no need for mobilization today.

Firstly, note that he says at the moment there’s no need for mobilization, leaving the door open for the future. This is because Russia has been conducting the stealth mobilization which, a month later in July, Shoigu said saw 1,336 signups per day in Russia, which is just over 40k a month. Shoigu famously said “This is enough to complete a regiment per day.”

Shoigu had also previously stated:

“In fact, by the end of June, we will complete the formation of a reserve army and in the near future we will complete the formation of an army corps. Five regiments have also been formed by more than 60%. In this case, I am talking about personnel and equipment,” the head of the military department emphasized. .

Such data inspire confidence in the resilience of our defense in the NVO zone, especially against the backdrop of off-scale losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, the following phrase flashed in the minister’s speech: “Preparations are underway for further offensive actions … On our part as well.“

The reason for refreshing your memory with the above, is to contextualize the new update below. Medvedev has now released a new video where he confirms that from January 1 to August 3, Russia has now recruited a total 231,000 contract servicemen. Watch the end of the video:

 
He further allegedly said that 400k by the end of the year is the goal. Now, keep in mind, Russia potentially lost 30-50k men with Wagner’s departure, not to mention Shoigu’s new reserve army and army corps, which could swallow as much as 120k of those men. In fact, I recall he specifically said last month—though I can’t find the quote at the moment—that out of the 160k+ recruited at the time, 40k would be sent to the front while the remaining would go to these reserve armies. This likely breaks down as ~30k for the new reserve corps of three divisions or so, with another 90k for the new field army of 3 army corps.

So, with the new 231k signups that Medvedev announced, how many men are the actual net positive? 30-50k lost from Wagner’s removal plus 120k for the reserves = 150-180k, subtract from 231k and we’re left with about 50-80k net troops for now. However, if Russia achieves the 400k figure by the end of the year, that will begin to turn into a game-changing amount.

But, here’s the wrinkle. In light of this, Ukraine plans to desperately try to match Russia as reports now claim the following:

In Ukraine, a large-scale mobilization may be announced in winter.
The “big mobilization” in Ukraine, which was announced by the deputy of the Rada Dubinsky, is, apparently, general raids on everyone who can still hold weapons, and no longer with campaigns in certain cities and districts, but on a large scale, everywhere and constantly.
Supplies of equipment from the West do not allow maintaining the required level of armament of existing units. If the number of these units increases, it will most likely mean the appearance of several dozen more TrO brigades, where for 3-4 thousand people in a brigade there will be a maximum of a tank company, a howitzer battery and a mortar division. Such brigades will not be capable of anything other than “meat assaults” or sitting in a blind defense.

A certain number of units with more or less normal equipment, of course, will remain — and will probably work as fire brigades.

The other side of the issue is the command of such units. You can recruit tens of thousands of conscripts aged 40-55. It is more difficult to understand who will control these troops on the battlefield. The shortage of junior and senior command staff began long before the start of the AFU offensive, and this problem has not yet been solved. (Older than the Edda)

This is supported by recent statements like from this Ukrainian veteran, who says that the entire male population of Ukraine should prepare for eventual mobilization. He foresees that 90% of males will eventually fight (and likely die, we can infer):

 
Recall that time is running out for the AFU this year. Many experts believe August and September to be the last real viable months before the second mini-Rasputitsa comes, with similar rain and mud conditions as in early spring. Zelensky fears losing the last vestige of support from the West and in fact, there are some rumors that certain key countries—namely Germany—have already curtailed their support in anticipation of a foregone conclusion. For instance, despite being the 2nd biggest overall supplier to Kiev, Germany has delayed certain critical shipments, like the new Leopard 1s, as well as many other promised items:

🚨Germany continues to delay promised weapons to Ukraine in the amount of 2.4 billion euros. So far, Kyiv has received practically none.

The list of planned deliveries includes 110 Leopard-1 tanks, 20 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 18 Gepard tanks, 4 Iris-T anti-aircraft guns and 26,350 artillery ammunition.

Reconnaissance drones, radars, tankers and trucks were also promised.

But so far, neither Marder, nor Iris-T, nor trucks have been delivered to Ukraine. Kyiv received only 10 Leopard-1s, one air surveillance radar, 12 Gepards and 850 artillery rounds, as well as 8 ambulances.

Also Germany supplied 11,000 rations, three unmanned drone sensors and five metal bridges for the Beaver bridge-laying armored vehicle.

 
So now, Zelensky is escalating in order to draw Russia into over-reacting, which would re-engage NATO’s flagging interest. Not only has Kiev stepped up outright acts of terror, like hitting Moscow office buildings with drones:

 
And yesterday’s hit on a Russian civilian oil tanker by a Ukrainian naval drone.

But now, there are rumors Zelensky intends to escalate his terror war to new heights. It’s believed the Moscow drone strikes were just probing attacks to test Russian defenses, and that a large-scale raid is being planned within weeks:

⚡️Kiev is preparing a massive drone raid on Moscow⚡️

⚡️⚡️⚡️The Wall Street Journal warns of a large-scale attack by Ukrainian UAVs on the Russian capital.

The authors report that thanks to the latest attacks on Moscow, the APU probed the weaknesses of the capital’s air defense in order to send dozens of drones there in the future.⚡️⚡️⚡️

The publication is confident that the city will be attacked in several directions at once. The red date of possible sabotage is considered to be August 24 (the imaginary Independence Day of Ukraine), which is confirmed by the threatening cartoon that recently spread across social networks.⚡️⚡️😡

The goal of this would be obvious: to force Russia into somehow over-reacting with an uncharacteristically rash use of force which could highlight Russia’s “brutality” and wring sympathy and further support for Ukraine from Western nations. For instance, one of the goals would be to get Russia to respond in a ‘tit-for-tat’ attack on civilian buildings in Kiev which would be hyper-focused by Western MSM while completely sweeping under the rug Kiev’s own attacks on Russian civilian targets. This would then be used in a new PR campaign to drum up more weapons aid from the West, with Zelensky using it as an example of why Kiev needs tons of new Patriot missiles and things of that nature.

Obviously, this is pure desperation. It’s the reason that I hardly even cover the drone attacks on the ships, skyscrapers, etc.—because they are utterly irrelevant and barely worth mentioning, having no appreciable effect on the battlefield dynamics/developments whatsoever. They are merely signs of utmost desperation, the frenzied clawing of a dying animal as it foams at the mouth after having been run over.

There’s also a second dimension to it. It represents the unruly actions of a disobedient child thrashing out against their parents. Ukraine wants the grain deal back on as it’s losing huge amounts of money from the deal’s termination. Thus, by escalating past the West’s own delimited ‘red lines’—for instance, about striking Russian territory, etc.—Ukraine is ‘rebelling’ against their own masters in order to force them into action, ideally to coerce them into putting more pressure on Russia to get back to the table regarding the grain deal.

To summarize, here’s what the advisor to the former president of Ukraine had to say about Zelensky’s outlook:

💥💥💥Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces civil war if he continues to illegally hold power in the country. A former adviser to Leonid Kuchma, Oleh Soskin, said this on YouTube.

“If martial law is not cancelled and elections are held, this power will be considered illegitimate. And since illegitimate, it is outlawed, and any Ukrainian within the framework of the fifth article of the constitution can destroy the rebels,” he said.

Earlier, Soskin said that the decision announced on 26 July to extend martial law shows Zelenskyy’s fear of losing the election.

The expert also noted that the failed policy of the Ukrainian president was the reason why many spheres of the state, including the economic and military ones, were almost completely destroyed.

“The Kiev regime has no popular support. As soon as the external supports fall away, everything will collapse at once,” the politician said.

In short, Ukraine faces flagging support from the West and is forced to resort to increasingly escalatory ‘gimmicks’ like mass terror drone attacks on Moscow in the same vein as the terminal phase of the Wehrmacht in WW2 vindictively launching V1/V2 rockets at London. This is nothing more than a dying animal, thrashing out its last gasps.

Meanwhile, Russia is on track for 400k new servicemen by the end of this year, with production of all kinds continually ramping up. By next spring, I believe what we’ll see is the slow envelopment of the AFU from every direction. It likely won’t be a massive big arrow campaign but a continual collapse on every single front where the AFU has completely exhausted all combat potential, particularly of the offensive variety, and is desperately trying to hold ground. The dam will slowly break in multiple directions and their positions will be overrun everywhere. Next year will likely look like early 1945 Germany.

Keep in mind, I’ve been on record before stating this conflict could likely go for 3-5 or even 10 years. But we’ve gotten a lot more new data over the last few months, and intelligent analysis requires constant honest re-appraisal in the face of new information. As it stands right now, barring some unforeseen circumstances, I see it happening as described above. The war could still last another year or two past that, but only with a dogged defense and constant retreating on the AFU’s behalf, for instance west of the Dnieper, which would cause Russia to have to take a long hiatus in re-orienting its troops, etc.—but essentially the result will have been decided by that point.

The major, insoluble problem for Kiev is particularly the fact that Russia’s drone production is set for an exponential explosion:

⚡️⚡️⚡️Rising militarist in the use of “Lancets” at the front:

According to Western data, the scale of the use of the “Lancet” stray ammunition is growing. The number of their launches reaches at least 20-25 units per day. For the first time, the use of “Lancets” against trenches, positions and groups of infantry is observed.

At least 50-60 FPV drones and 20-30 lancets are used every day, and dozens of helicopters with 40 or 60 mm bombs drop them into trenches and fixed targets, especially in Donbass and Kherson.

If infantry and sapper posts are also among the targets, then the number of Lancets sent to the front has increased, and the units have been given freedom of action in terms of their use.

If the new Lancet models come forward more actively, in the coming months we can see a rapid increase to 50 and possibly 100 launches per day as there is a dramatic increase in production and its usage could increase several times⚡️⚡️⚡️

Many sources are saying that in the next few months, Ukraine will drown in Lancets. And there are new models coming which have thermobaric warheads for taking out troops rather than HEAT-style anti-armor warheads now most often used. That means Lancets will soon be taking out trenches and troop deployments along the entire front. We’re certainly seeing a flood of daily videos showing almost nothing but successful Lancet hits. The bottleneck will likely soon be—if it isn’t already—the operators themselves.

On top of which, British intel claims a new Geran drone factory is nearing completion in Tatarstan and it will be pumping out massive numbers of drones. Ukraine will be drowning in drone swarm attacks on a daily basis.

According to British intelligence, Russia has finished a Geran 2 drone factory to 80%.

It’s capacity will allow the production of up to 5,000 suicide drones a year.

— Source ResidentUA

 
Recall earlier reports from Western MSM that Russia is already building and acquiring 45-50k smaller surveillance and FPV drones per month.

This hugely plays into something I’ve written about before, which is that Russia is primarily using its Geran drones to completely deplete the highly expensive Western air defense systems. Recall, I had stated that there is nothing of note to really hit in Kiev. It’s not like Ukraine stages troops there. Russia simply sends swarms of Gerans to make Ukrainian air defense expend itself so that they have to take AD missiles from other frontlines, thus completely depleting the AD where it matters most.

🇺🇦Ukrainians report that drones over Ukraine are once again using “strange” tactics. Ukrainian monitoring channels report oddities in the use of Geranj-2 drones.

Some of them are circling above the alleged duty zones of the air defense system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the other part of the drones is at a considerable distance from the targets and waiting for AD to be activated.

Now, there’s been confirmation of this in the form of a very informative thread from this Western reporter who interviewed a Lt. Colonel in the Ukrainian air defense command. The shocking revelation he made was that the city of Kiev was very close to being entirely evacuated last December, due to the strength of Russia’s missile barrage—that’s all 2+ million people. The exchange is published in this article:

https://archive.li/DYuMF

Ignore the fantasy about shooting down Kinzhal missiles, this is merely a fatuous lie meant to butter up Western officials into handing over more Patriots. The real telling information comes after:

“You can’t plan a war with an annual production of 150-160 Patriot missiles. We fired those in a month,” he said, sounding the alarm that his men were running out of ammunition. “If we wait until autumn, until mid-October, they will hit the energy infrastructure again. This is a certainty. This winter will be even more difficult than the previous one.”

What he correctly reveals is that the U.S.’s annual production capacity for Patriot missiles is a mere 150+. Kiev fires more than that in a single month. The U.S. is estimated to only have probably around 3000-5000 total Patriot missiles, in terms of the ammunition. That may sound high but around 2-3k of them are loaded into U.S.’s own 500-1000 active launchers.

Then came the bombshell:

He disclosed that in December Ukrainian authorities had been on the brink of ordering the complete evacuation of Kyiv due to the intensity of Russian airstrikes. “Not many people know this, but Kyiv was on the verge of evacuation,” he said. “There was one battle that, in my opinion, determined the fate of Kyiv and the Russian campaign to destroy our energy sector, when 49 cruise missiles were launched at Kyiv.”

In a desperate 15 minutes on December 16, Ukraine fired dozens of missiles from its Soviet-era S-300, American Nasams and German Iris-T systems to save the city from total blackout in freezing temperatures.

“If we had allowed this strike to succeed, Kyiv would have had to be evacuated. And it is very difficult to evacuate two and a half million people,” the colonel said.

The point of this is to illustrate that this coming winter will be particularly difficult for Ukraine as Russian missile and drone production has ramped up a lot since last year, not to mention the ensuing next year as well. If they were close to evacuating Kiev last December, what will the situation be this coming December?

This is all part of the slow collapse I outlined—as Russia gets stronger by the month. It will be a completely different ball game by next year and Ukraine will be hanging on by a thread, depleted to the bone not only in armored vehicles and artillery but the crucial AD system missiles.

And as of this writing, a massive new round of strikes is being carried out on Ukrainian targets, particularly the Starokonstantinov airfield in western Ukraine where the Storm Shadow-launching Su-24M planes are said to be housed. This is a particularly large strike with upwards of 15 Tu-95s airborne reported, as well as Kinzhal-carrying Mig-31Ks. In almost every strike now, Russian Kh-101 missiles are reported to take extremely circuitous routes, where they ‘cruise around’ the country, changing directions frequently and completely throwing off Ukrainian monitoring systems and defenses.

Starokonstantinov flew to the military airfield around 19:00. Explosions were heard about 8. Something is on fire.

 
Meanwhile, retired Ukrainian general Serhiy Krivonos believes Russia is on the verge of a major offensive in the next few months which could “take Kiev”:

“Before Kiev in 12 hours“: the ex-general of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the impending offensive of the Russian army “In the coming months, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are waiting for the “worst scenarios,” said Major General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, retired Serhiy Krivonos. In his opinion, Kiev clearly underestimates the power of the Russian army, which will lead to terrible consequences, including the lightning capture of the capital. The ex-officer is confident that after the failure of the counteroffensive, the RF Armed Forces will strike at Ukraine and are capable of capturing Kiev in 12 hours. OstashkoNews

I don’t know where he got the 12 hours timeline, but many do believe that Russia is gearing up for its own offensive in the near future. For instance, analyst Yuri Podolyaka again voiced his opinion that Russia will launch an offensive before Rasputitsa. Personally, I don’t necessarily see that happening as, given the above longer term prospects for the AFU, I don’t see a big current urgency for Russia to have to ‘rush’ into a series of offensives this year.

It’s possible but only for opportunistic reasons. When you’re playing ‘active defense’, as Russia likes to employ, you have to always be prepared to exploit an enemy’s weaknesses in a given area. So if Russian commanders smell blood on a particular front, then it’s possible. But as of now, it seems most logical to wait out one more winter to allow the aerospace forces to degrade Ukraine economically, militarily, morale-wise, etc., before attacking a much weaker foe in a much more favorable light next year.

In the interim of this winter, though, I could see a lot of intrigues playing out in the void left by Ukraine’s exhausted combat potential.

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