Most people are more likely to wind up six feet under because of almost anything else under the sun other than COVID-19.
The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public. For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.
Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.Plus, ultimately we might find out that the IFR is even lower because numerous studies and hard counts of confined populations have shown a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases. Simply adjusting for a 50% asymptomatic rate would drop their fatality rate to 0.2% – exactly the rate of fatality Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected.
More importantly, as I mentioned before, the overall death rate is meaningless because the numbers are so lopsided. Given that at least half of the deaths were in nursing homes, a back-of-the-envelope estimate would show that the infection fatality rate for non-nursing home residents would only be 0.1% or 1 in 1,000. And that includes people of all ages and all health statuses outside of nursing homes. Since nearly all of the deaths are those with comorbidities.
The CDC estimates the death rate from COVID-19 for those under 50 is 1 in 5,000 for those with symptoms, which would be 1 in 6,725 overall, but again, almost all those who die have specific comorbidities or underlying conditions. Those without them are more likely to die in a car accident. And schoolchildren, whose lives, mental health, and education we are destroying, are more likely to get struck by lightning.
To put this in perspective, one Twitter commentator juxtaposed the age-separated infection fatality rates in Spain to the average yearly probability of dying of anything for the same age groups, based on data from the Social Security Administration. He used Spain because we don’t have a detailed infection fatality rate estimate for each age group from any survey in the U.S. However, we know that Spain fared worse than almost every other country. This data is actually working with a top-line IFR of 1%, roughly four times what the CDC estimates for the U.S., so if anything, the corresponding numbers for the U.S. will be lower.
As you can see, even in Spain, the death rates from COVID-19 for younger people are very low and are well below the annual death rate for any age group in a given year. For children, despite their young age, they are 10-30 times more likely to die from other causes in any given year.
While obviously yearly death rates factor in myriad of causes of death and COVID-19 is just one virus, it still provides much-needed perspective to a public policy response that is completely divorced from the risk for all but the oldest and sickest people in the country.
Also, keep in mind, these numbers represent your chance of dying once you have already contracted the virus, aka the infection fatality rate. Once you couple the chance of contracting the virus in the first place together with the chance of dying from it, many younger people have a higher chance of dying from a lightning strike.
No they will not admit it they want more testing, people to be forced to behave unnaturally we are a social creature.
They are saying, ” second wave” and “new normal”, what lessons have we learned?
They will never admit to mistakes, they will claim their actions save millions.
Have they found a large population of Asymptomatics to see how long they shed the virus? Should every nursing home get a rapid testing machine so we can visit our elderly, and test the staff daily? Are they testing those first survivors to see if they still have antibodies?
Are we allowed to say FU to the next attempt to shutter our country by “experts”?
Will the billionaires that made megabucks during the pandemic open new factories to make us less dependent on China?
Thus far, there have been over 35 times as many COVID-19 related deaths in the U.S. as there were American fatalities on D-Day; there have been roughly 33 times as many U.S. COVID-19 casualties as the number who died from the 9/11 attack.
Daniel Horowitz:
He’s making an assumption that social distancing was the error. Most likely, it was not. Most likely, the fatality count was greatly reduced as a result of social distancing protocol.
Horowitz should ask his question again in another three weeks.
Governor baby doc cuomo killed more people than those who died on 9-11 by instructing China virus contagious individuals to be placed in nursing homes in New York State.
New York is the epicenter of the Wuhan red death.
But, before he did that two things happened:
1. Nursing home companies donated about $1 million into a PAC that supports Cuomo.
Then, on the heels of that, 2. Cuomo protected nursing homes from lawsuits and other liabilities from deaths by coronavirus.
cuomos actions instructing nursing homes to accept chinese virus infected senior citizens are tantamount to Hitler marching the Jewish people into death camps …