Posted by Curt on 24 June, 2016 at 5:00 am. 12 comments already!


Erick Erickson:

The United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union. It is a seismic global event. Markets are going to be extremely volatile today. The other thing that will be extremely volatile are the amazingly hot takes on ways this vote in the United Kingdom will impact or shape the American Presidential election. It won’t. Not everything is about us, our election, and Donald Trump.

This was a matter for Britain related to Europe, not Trump related to Clinton. All your hot takes saying things like Clinton needs to pay attention to this area or Trump needs to pay attention to this issue are all crap takes by people pretending to be smarter than they are. But, see point four below.

There are a few things worth noting, though, that do relate to the United States.

First, the British have just voted for the conservative concept that the government that governs closest to the people governs best. The elite have been rejected. We are seeing that happen here. People are angry and do not trust the leaders in government or the intellectual elite.

Second, the trust of Washington in this country is actually greater than the trust of the EU in Great Britain. While I may hate Washington, I have to remind myself that I am in the smaller of the two major political parties. The anger of Trump voters is actually not as widespread in this country as anti-EU anger is in Great Britain.

Third, the polling actually got it basically right. It was an exceedingly close vote and the polling reflected that. For all the people drafting hot takes that the Brexit win means Trump can win should note that the polling in Britain was as close as the actual outcome. In this country, Trump has been below 40% in just about every major poll of late and has trailed Hillary Clinton by at least five points in the polling average for the last several weeks.

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