By Joseph A. Ladapo
A hallmark of Covid-19 pandemic policy has been the failure of political leaders and health officials to anticipate the unintended consequences of their actions. This tendency has haunted many decisions, from lockdowns that triggered enormous unemployment and increased alcohol and drug abuse, to school closures that are widening educational disparities between rich and poor families. Mask mandates may also have unintended consequences that outweigh the benefits.
First, consider how the debate has evolved and the underlying scientific evidence. Several randomized trials of community or household masking have been completed. Most have shown that wearing a mask has little or no effect on respiratory virus transmission, according to a review published earlier this year in Emerging Infectious Diseases, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s journal. In March, when Anthony Fauci said, “wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better” but “it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think it is,” his statement reflected scientific consensus, and was consistent with the World Health Organization’s guidance.
Almost overnight, the recommendations flipped. The reason? The risk of asymptomatic transmission. Health officials said mask mandates were now not only reasonable but critical. This is a weak rationale, given that presymptomatic spread of respiratory viruses isn’t a novel phenomenon in public health. Asymptomatic cases of influenza occur in up to a third of patients, according to a 2016 report in Emerging Infectious Diseases, and even more patients had mild cases that are never diagnosed. Asymptomatic or mild cases appear to contribute more to Covid-19 transmission, but this happens in flu cases, too, though no one has called for mask mandates during flu season.
The public assumes that research performed since the beginning of the pandemic supports mask mandates. Policy makers and the media point to low-quality evidence, such as a study of Covid-19 positive hairstylists in Missouri or a Georgia summer camp with an outbreak. These anecdotes, while valuable, tell us nothing about the experience of other hairdressers or other summer camps that adopted similar or different masking practices. Also low-quality evidence: Videos of droplets spreading through air as people talk, a well-intended line of research that has stoked fears about regular human interactions.
Rather, the highest-quality evidence so far is studies like the one published in June in Health Affairs, which found that U.S. states instituting mask mandates had a 2% reduction in growth rates of Covid-19 compared with states without these mandates. Because respiratory virus spread is exponential, modest reductions can translate into large differences over time. But these shifts in trajectory are distinct from the notion that mandating masks will bring the pandemic to an end. Based on evidence around the world, it should be clear that mask mandates won’t extinguish the virus.
The most reasonable conclusion from the available scientific evidence is that community mask mandates have—at most—a small effect on the course of the pandemic. But you wouldn’t know that from watching cable news or sitting next to a mother being forced off an airplane because her small children aren’t able to keep a mask on.
While mask-wearing has often been invoked in explanations for rising or falling Covid-19 case counts, the reality is that these trends reflect a basic human need to interact with one another. Claims that low mask compliance is responsible for rising case counts are also not supported by Gallup data, which show that the percentage of Americans reporting wearing masks has been high and relatively stable since June. Health officials and political leaders have assigned mask mandates a gravity unsupported by empirical research
FTA:
This helps us understand why the Los Angeles Dodgers invited Justin Turner, just found positive for Covid, to celebrate the World Series win with them
They are all young and/or healthy.
They can get covid then be immune for life!
Meanwhile, an older covid case can get Regenerist or one of the newest effective treatments right away when they 1st get covid.
This gives them their best chance to also beat the virus.
Even older and sick people improve their chances with early outpatient treatment.
Always in the comment section this person isnt expert enough for me. I will follow the people who have failed and given multiple excuses why, give me my government security blanket.
Here’s the weasel paragraph in this unfortunate WSJ opinion piece:
He just acknowledged that masks reduced an exponential rate of spread by 2 percent, and then asserted that the effect is unimportant, because masks don’t extinguish the virus.
Think about that seemingly tiny 2 percent reduction in the rate of increase that masks provide the same way you would a 2 percent reduction in the rate of compounding interest on money in the bank. Compounding is what is involved in an exponential rate of spread. Do you not see what a 2 percent reduction means over time?
Keep in mind that in the time frame of pandemics, we’re not talking about years, but months.
“Extinguishing the virus” is not really a short-term option. Do you know how long it took to effectively extinguish smallpox?
The immediate goal is to bring the pandemic under control by reducing the population of carriers down to a sub-epidemic level. An effective vaccine is not going to magically extinguish the virus. It’s actually another means of reducing the population of carriers, hopefully in a highly effective manner. You want to do that, and also to focus on effective treatments for a manageable population of sick people.
Masks do not work.
The biden campaign remaining silent on the Bobulinski bombshell is tantamount to an admission of guilt.
joe biden has been for sale for 47 years.
@Greg: The coronavirus is under control. It’s just another respiratory virus, at this point.
@July 4th American:
They DO work. They’re not a magical solution that fixes everything. No one said that they were. They’re an effective means of reducing the rate of spread. Which, in case you haven’t noticed, is rapidly increasing, and is going to play hell with our healthcare system and our entire economy if it isn’t better controlled. We can’t simply wish things back to normal because we’re tired of the fight.
This isn’t a local problem. Check what’s happening in Europe. A number of countries are rapidly heading for serious trouble.
@Nathan Blue:
It’s one that can kill you, or leave you with serious long-term problems. It’s one to which our species has little or no immunity. It has already wreaked havoc. It’s obviously not under control, and it’s not just another respiratory virus.
@Greg: Stops 2 of 100 infected people spreading the virus, has nothing to do with compound interest.
Your logic again is defective, 98 masked people are still exponentially spreading the virus.
It becomes deadly when not aggressively treated and you are older and have underlying conditions.
Just go home til you are ill enough to be hospitalized isnt working and didnt for over 200 K.
@kitt, #9:
No. It reduces the rate of spread by 2 percent. Saying that it keeps 2 of 100 infected people from spreading the virus is incorrect, because it removes the fact of exponential increase from the arithmetic.
If 2 more out of 100 pass on the virus at the start, the next group of 100 begins with 2 additional infected people. With each additional 100 people, the total number of infections you begin with becomes larger. It’s like putting 2 grains of rice on the first square of a chess board, 4 on the second, 8 on the third, 16 on the fourth, 32 on the fifth, etc. Pretty soon the next square won’t hold the grains of rice. It isn’t even possible to continue to the last square of the chessboard. Your house would be buried in rice long before you got there. That’s what exponential means.
A 2 percent reduction in the rate of spread would have VERY significant effects.
@Greg:
Masks do not work.
@Greg: Defective logic brother.
Hunter Biden engaged in ‘raw influence-peddling’ on grand, global scale: Turley
@kitt, #13:
That is logic. It’s the simple arithmetic behind the exponential spread of any highly contagious disease. It’s how you go from one infected person in the U.S. in January or February to over 228,000 dead today. The progression doesn’t stop until you do something to interrupt it.
Masks are simple. 2 percent makes a huge difference. It can be the difference between available medical care and hospitals that can no longer take in new patients. It can be the difference between a functional economy and economic disaster. What’s the big deal? It’s a medical mask, not a ball and chain fastened to your ankle. It’s not a political commitment. You can wear a mask and still vote against Joe Biden.
@Greg: Masks simply dont work, the dead were not given any early treatment and the virus turned their own immune system against them.
Wear you mask, it will stop 2 of 100 infected people from spreading the virus to you. some recent research on airborne viral spread and … the virus was detectable in air samples for between 3 and 16 hours to get into your eyes. The clear tissue that covers the white of the eye and lines the inside of the eyelid, known as the conjunctiva, “can be infected by viruses, such as adenoviruses associated with the common cold and the herpes simplex virus.
Masks do not work, you are running around with eyes wide shut.
That must be why every trained healthcare provider on the planet working with patients having dangerous respiratory infections over the past 50 years has worn a medical mask.
@Greg:
Science Says Healthy People Should Not Wear Masks Masks reduce intake of oxygen, leading to carbon dioxide toxicity Germs are trapped near your mouth and nose, increasing risk of infection Wearing a mask causes you to touch your face more frequently.
@Greg:
Here’s the actual science on masks and respiratory illness, as Daniel Horowitz writes:
“Because the virions of coronavirus are roughly 100 nanometers, 1/1000 the width of a hair and 1/30 the size of surgical mask filtrations (about 3.0 microns or 3,000 nanometers), surgical masks (not to mention cloth ones) do not help…Surgical masks could possibly stop large droplets from those coughing with very evident symptoms, but would not stop the flow of aerosolized airborne particles, certainly not from asymptomatic individuals.”
In other words, the pores in masks are 30 times wider and bigger than the virus they’re supposed to catch. As one observer said, using a mask to protect yourself from a respiratory virus is like trying to stop a mosquito with a chain-link fence.
@Greg:
World’s Top Epidemiologists – Masks Don’t Work
@July 4th American, #17:
Quacks and conspiracy theorists say that. No reputable epidemiologist does.
@July 4th American, #18:
Daniel Horowitz is a hack political writer. The man is a frickin’ idiot.
@Greg:
CDC Study Finds Overwhelming Majority Of People Getting Coronavirus Wore Masks
@Greg:
Yet, in spite of an increase in positive cases, hospitalization from the Chi-Com flu continue to drop. If hospitalizations are dropping, how will that “play hell with our healthcare system”, Comrade Greggie.
If one wants to see how Democrats handle pandemics, one only has to look at the absolute disaster that was the Spanish flu under Woodrow Wilson who now has buildings named after him or the H1N1 virus under Obama.
All you have is doom and gloom. Judas Priest, you left wingers are so damn negative.
And exactly what is Bargain Basement Joe’s plan that we are not doing now other than hiring 100,000 federal workers to stick their noses in the personal business of American citizens? Give me Bargain Basement Joe’s plan because there damn sure are no solid specifics on his website.
@Greg:
And your vast expertise in epidemiology allows you to make that comment, right Comrade Greggie?
Ah. The missing stooge has arrived. That will be the end of any intelligent discussion.
@Greg:
Oh then you are staying and trying to push your anti logic, ok. Tell me again how you are going swimming without getting wet.
The only thing left for greg to talk about is the wuhan red death. Bless his heart.
greg has thrown in the white towel on defending biden. The evidence is overwhelming and not in dispute. joe biden is corrupt and is bought and paid for by China.
@July 4th American, #21:
Your link doesn’t work, but it’s an article from The Federalist, right? The CDC report they’re referencing doesn’t actually conclude that masks have no benefit. From the report:
Masks offer no protection if they’re not on your face. That restaurant diners among the sample were twice as likely to have become infected as those who weren’t restaurant diners suggests masks DO work. Those with double the likelihood of being infected obviously had their masks off for long enough to take a meal in an indoor public setting.
The Federalist article title is intentionally deceptive. It seems to mean something but actually means nothing. It’s a bit like proclaiming Study Finds Overwhelming Majority of People Killed in Car Accidents Were In Automobiles.
@Greg:
I agree. All you’re capable of offering is doom and gloom to push your leftist, Communist agenda. Discussion is much, much better when you are absent.
The echos in an echo chamber are not actually a discussion.
@Greg:
What is joe’s plan?
@Greg:
You’re the echo.
You come here with your Trump hate and that is all.
You don’t answer questions.
You don’t provide rational thought.
You don’t ever admit when you’re wrong.
You just express Trump hatred and when cornered, you move on to another thread; wash, rinse, repeat.
Still waiting for you to show how Bargain Basement Joe would do a better job with a newly discovered virus than President Trump. Crickets.
@retire05, #31:
The topic of the thread has to do with the effectiveness of masks as a means of controlling COVID-19. That’s what I was commenting on. The facts concerning that will not be altered by the outcome of an election.
@July 4th American, #30:
Biden’s plan
I’ve not seen any comparable outline from the current administration. That makes a comparison difficult. All I can compare it with is what I see happening, or not happening.
@Greg:
COMPLAINT: Biden Center Received $22 Million In Donations From Unidentified Chinese Donor
@Greg:
HUGE BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Hunter Biden Has a PornHub Account Where He Uploaded His Personal Porn – Including with Family Member
Additional information uncovered this past week shows a different story.
On Monday it was uncovered that VP Biden and his wife colluded to suppress Hunter’s actions with a certain minor. On Tuesday we uncovered information showing how Hunter put his family at risk for Russian Blackmail after participating in seedy actions in West Hollywood with at least one Russian woman. On Wednesday we reported that Hunter took pictures exposing himself in the presence of a minor. This morning we reported that Hunter was accused of “Walking Around Naked Watching Porn Masturbating and Doing Drugs” in front of a minor.
@Greg:
That’s funny.
What a bunch of non-measurable, relativistic shite. And Trump has mounted a national effort, made care affordable, and provided economic relief…mostly by getting people back to work instead of putting them back on the Democrat teat.
Meanwhile, Trump has done a good job and we’re moving forward.
Biden’s plan? Just Trump’s plan with some “we’ll get out media to say Biden is “good” and that we’re “leading”.
Biden is a joke. He leads nothing, He’ll win nothing.
@Greg:
Gee, that sounds like the argument made in favor of HCQ; it is a helpful part of the battle against COVID19; in fact, a more effective part than masks. But because Trump supported it (not “pushed” it), the left denounced it, endangering the lives of thousands when we were most vulnerable to the virus. Though Trump has never denounced or criticized masks, the left has found it necessary to paint him as someone that is against them. The left has to politicize everything and, in the process, what they have done is turn masks into nothing but a billboard for fear.
Masks may be somewhat effective, but they are not THAT effective and we can get by without them in most cases. But the left insists everyone wears a mask at all times to incite the overblown fear of the epidemic (respecting it is not the same as fearing it).
In places where masks are mandated, too. I wonder how that is possible?
So, they are doing just as bad a job controlling the pandemic there as Trump is here? Or, are they having the same problems everyone else, including the United States, is having? Viewing Europe’s problems and the fact that the US is actually doing a BETTER job of controlling the virus and reopening our economy fully exposes the massive lies, intentionally meant to be destructive and harmful, the left is telling about our response.
Well, stupidly putting infected people in with the most vulnerable of all out population when you KNOW they are the most vulnerable contributed greatly to that. Remind me again… who did that?
@Nathan Blue, #36:
I think there’s a good chance we’ll see some of it in application before too much longer. We’ll probably know by the end of next week.
@Greg:
A complete failure every death Trumps Fault, you cant rewrite recent history, Joe could never had pulled off what Trump and his team did. We are better positioned for any surge because of Trump.
Masks are still as useful as my Democrat Governor tits on a boar hog.
What has changed about the virus when the head of the cdc fauchi the director of WHO all said science says masks really are not effective?
@Greg: Biden’s plan has been in effect since March, because it’s Trump’s plan.
@kitt: Joe would have sent boat loads of money to China for them to continue to make all our PPE, medical equipment and medications. Hunter would be the middle man and Joe would get his agreed upon 50% of Hunter’s take. Our security was put in China’s hands by Obama/Biden and Biden simply sees that as safe and normal, regardless of how many die. A person cannot support this buzzard and have any concern for the future of this nation. The two simply are not compatible.
@Nathan Blue: They both have the same plan. Trump put his in effect in January. Biden would have initiated his in March, but without having Trump’s to plagiarize, who knows what Biden’s plan would actually be or if he would even have one?
@July 4th American:
@Nathan Blue:
@retire05:
@Nathan Blue:
@kitt:
And a plain yellow pumpkin can become a golden carriage and 4 white mice can be 4 white horses- if and when Trump and/or the right wing propaganda machine instructs you to believe it.
You have seriously turned into a basket of gullibles.
@Ronald J. Ward: Now can you refute anything you have quoted or are you going to finish watching Rodgers and Hammerstein’ s Cinderella on you boob tube?
The original story a rich man marries a woman who poisons him and the entire estate falls into ruin as she goes through all his money on her lazy daughters and herself, sounds just like what the demorcrats have done to once prosperous cities and states.
@kitt:
The above are quotes from the FA sockpuppet residents, not mine.
Like most of the right wing cultists, you’ve been indoctrinated by your constant intake of The Federalist, AmericanThinker, Gateway Pundit and so forth to concede any critical thinking and blindly follow whatever they dictate–be it the use of a mask, the pandemic itself, climate change, a president that blatantly lies constantly, systemic racism, a looming heathcare crises, opioid addiction, monopolization, gun violence, economic inequality, or most every other major issue. You will blindly follow whatever lead your masters demand.
@Ronald J. Ward: Why are you supporting Biden, a known racist, rapist, corrupt criminal? In the past, you pretended to not like that sort of thing, though you supported Hillary. Why are you supporting such vile stuff?
@Deplorable Me:
That’s pretty strong coming from someone who said 4 years ago they’d vote Hitler over a Democrat.
Please point to where I’ve supported Biden. I’m not overly delighted with him and by the way, I’ve never voted for Hillary Clinton.
Your accusations of Biden are as I’ve argued, merely conspiracy theories planted in your head from the Trump propaganda machine and have no validity whereas we’ve witnessed hideous evils from our present leader in real time.
I’m obviously what one would call a never Trumper. He should be in prison or dangling from a rope.
@Ronald J. Ward:
The biden criminal enterprise is not a conspiracy theory. Multiple times every day all day, elements of the corruption are validated. The FBI has had a case open since 2018 on the biden family for money laundering. Hardly a conspiracy theory.
@Ronald J. Ward: Do you know what refute means?
@Ronald J. Ward:
First, this confirms that you are AJ trying to hide behind a different name, though I recognized your lying and cowardice. Well, I said the exact opposite. But I answered the question, which is something you will never do. You just run away from them. Why do you support a proven racist? His own statements prove his racism, and they aren’t the “fine people” distortions you have to use to create a racist remark from Trump. He actually said desegregation would turn schools into “racial jungles”, among other things. That’s your guy… the racist. The rapist. The corrupt criminal.
@Deplorable Me:
This is the main reason I seldom bother to respond to your gibberish. You asked rhetorically why I supported Biden and then stated I supported Hilary.
I responded verbatim:
You then respond as you always have:
The problem isn’t that I don’t answer but rather that you either refuse to accept my answer or you cannot understand it. Then I’m only left with either ignoring you entirely or explaining to you in slow mode, which you still refuse to accept. The other problem is that your questions are generally meant to be nothing other than a distraction.
I really see no need to further entertain you.