Let’s all consider taking one small step backwards and examining history as a determining factor over the ramble of endless cable news shouting matches.
Everyone today loves to look at, and obsess over, the Republican nomination polls as an indicator of the dire trouble that former Florida Governor and dynastic kin Jeb Bush is in. “Skittish” is the editorial word of choice used here to describe Bush supporters, who see his fifth place ranking as a sign of worry.
Real Clear Politics polling data as of today suggests that Bush falls behind Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, and Marco Rubio.
Stop it. None of these people will be President. Rubio, maybe, but still a stretch. Let’s look at the last two Presidential elections to see how the Bush of today is stacking up.
A Gallup Poll released October 23, 2007 gives the following description of the Republican nomination process (I’m willing to bet you don’t remember half of the names mentioned):
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has held a statistically significant lead in every Gallup national preference poll since February, averaging a 12-point lead over former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson the past three months. Arizona Sen. John McCain is third, but usually just a few points behind Thompson. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has not gained much traction in the national polls. In the most recent Gallup Poll, just 10% of Republicans chose him for the Republican presidential nomination. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has seen his support pick up a little in the past few months, but he remains in single digits. Kansas Sen.Sam Brownback’s departure from the race — announced this past weekend — will almost certainly have little direct effect, as he consistently polled at only 1% or 2% of the vote.
Did you catch the part about Arizona Senator John McCain in there? You know, the guy who became the nominee in 2008? He was in third place behind Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. In fact, Rasmussen and NBC News polls from September-October that year firmly placed McCain anywhere from a distant second to fourth; President Giuliani seemed like a done deal.
On to 2012, shall we? Let me remind you of the line from NBC News’ Mark Murray on October 13, 2011 when he wrote, “Fueled by Tea Party supporters, conservatives and high-interest GOP primary voters, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain now leads the race for the Republican presidential nomination, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.”
And even in polls when eventual nominee Mitt Romney was in first, he was deemed as the dominant candidate likely to unseat President Barack Obama.
My point is simply to keep in mind that as much fun as it is for us in this business to speculate (and man do we love to, it’s like fantasy football with zero control) October the year before an election is statistically meaningless.
This is the ultimate marathon, and Jeb Bush is built to win it with stability all around him. Sure, Rubio’s fundraising efforts have yielded positive results, but no one is built like the ultra-establishment Bush name.
Most people also don’t realize that, while they vote in primaries for some of each states delegates, many of each state’s delegate count is made up of GOP Party leaders who will all vote Bush.
Even polling at 6 or 7 percent Bush still commands almost all of those non-democratically assigned delegates.
If he doesn’t lose his funding he will be the nominee.
This is especially a done deal IF Trump fades.
@Nanny G As I predicted months ago Trump,,like so many before him in fall of 07 and 2011 , would bump up to high 20’s: then fall back-currently 23%. You can’t insult your way to The Presidency. I believe this will become a race between Rubio or Bush from establishment Rebubs against Cruz or Carson from the right. Fiorina looks like Veep.
Actually, one or two elections out of 40+ don’t set a precedent. Remember, one of the reasons that McCain got the nomination was that the press got behind him and pushed hard for him as the primary choice..
Why? Because they knew what a weak candidate he was, but only played up his weaknesses after he got the nomination, which helped Obama win.
There is no comparison with today, when so many voters are in rebellion against business as usual.
Will Trump win? There is no way of knowing by looking at past results. The parameters of the situation have changed too much for the past to be that relevant.
One thing that I will predict, however- if JEB? is forced upon us despite his low popularity as a candidate, conservatives will revolt and our next President will be a Democrat.
The revolt against the Republican status quo will only be strengthened if they do this.
If this nation survives the Republican sabotage.
@Petercat: Latest national poll –IBD–released today– has Carson 24% Trump !7%–has sanity returned to Repub voters?
377 voters? Wow! how significant can you get! (/sarc)
@Rich Wheeler: #4
Sanity returned to some conservative voters when they realized that the Republican politicians no longer respected the views of their constituents.
Which is why businessmen and other political outsiders are so popular now.
@Ditto:IBD poll very accurate– had last 3 Prez elections on the money one week before final tally– 5% margin of error.
Petercat–Do you think Carson can get nom. Think Rubio will battle Carson and Cruz.
Waiting on Biden’s decision– Think he’s got a good shot at nom if he gets in.
So IBD claims. With telephone polling of only 377 voters, I think they are full of hype with little substance. Where does IBD really stand? In 2008 they were near the bottom with a score of a “D” accuracy 77% with a Consistency of 34% With so many Washington DC outsiders in the mix this is anything but a normal presidential election cycle. Go peddle your polling propaganda elsewhere.
You’re delusional if you think that JEB! will get the nomination. Millions of conservatives have awoken to the fact that the CofC and the GOPe has rigged the deck. It’s why Trump CONTINUES to surge, despite a poll showing otherwise. (great poll, 300+ respondents)
JEB!’s support is down to about 4% and his big money PAC donors have put him on a short leash. He’s got a month or so to stoke the fire. Thing is, he’s a lackluster candidate who hardly looks like he even wants the job. If by some chance, he does secure the nomination, I guarantee you it will be the all time low for enthusiasm. He would lose to a hammer.
As for your snide remark about maybe Republicans coming to their senses, we have, and we have our guy, Donald Trump. He doesn’t play the game, doesn’t dance around anyone or anything. He’s directly addressed the most important issues this country is facing with positive solutions. If you’re satisfied with another Romney or McCain, well that’s just a whole lotta TFB because that BS just ain’t gonna happen this time.
It’s hard to believe you actually think Rubio has a shot much less Fiorina has one as the VP. Lodrie.
You need to get informed as to the GOPe Roadmap, MM.
The GOPe road map created by the republican party apparatus (professional political class) to nominate Jeb Bush.
See the links at the bottom of this article:
Specificaly look over these:
RNC Rule Changes
RNC Rule Battles
♦ Following The Money
♦ The GOPe Roadmap
♦ The Roles of The Players – “The Splitters”
♦ Proving there is only one political party in Washington DC
♦ The Rick Perry Tripwire Exposed – DC Super-Pac
♦ Salem Media Communications (GOPe Media Arm) Launches Attack
♦ Current Polling Exposes – the Ohio, Florida, Texas, Virginia, New York Splitters
♦ Florida Polling Exposes – Donald Trump defeating Jeb’s Florida Strategy
IF Trump can be discouraged into quitting Bush will be the nominee.
IF Trump cannot be discouraged from quitting Bush will have to win via the party apparachik votes built into the delegate count.
You did realize how many of these delegates are appointed, not voted in by a primary, didn’t you?
I’m totally hip to sundance’s threads at CT which is why I have faith that conservatives will not allow the CofC and the GOPe to pull another Romney on us
@Rich Wheeler: You do remember me telling you ND was going to lose up to 4 games in the ACC this year with Clemson being one of those. Right?
@Nanny G: JEB is not going to get the nom, neither is Rubio. Both of those are against all control of immigration and would take down the fences we have and open the floodgates. We don’t need that. Neither one of them are conservatives. Conservatives are not open border guys.
@Redteam: N.D. pushed em all over the field, 437-296 total yards’ in Death Valley–outscored em 19-3 in 4th–tough 2 pt loss. Would love a chance to whip LSU AGAIN in bowl game.
You do remember I told you The Donald would fade 30% now at 22% and dropping.
Conservs. a bunch of hardcore old white guys and the gals that follow their instructions. Never win a national election.
Let’s see: a white businessman, a black world renowned doctor, a woman who ran a Fortune 500 company and survived the horrors of breast cancer, and two young Hispanics of Cuban descent.
Compare that to the best your side of the aisle has to offer; aged crook in a pantsuit and a aged confirmed Socialist.
no, I don’t remember you saying he would fade, just that he wouldn’t be the nom. I’m beginning to believe that he might be the nom. I think many Americans have decided that they want to go back to the America we had back before the Dims have totally wrecked it. I have seen no polls that show anyone ahead of him. I haven’t seen that 300 member poll you quote. I suspect it was the Mercy for Animals dogs that were voting in that one. They’re afraid they will be put to death.
Yea, I realize they put all their defensive subs in when they knew they had it in hand. Wanted to get some experience for the 2nd stringers. Makes secondary stats look impressive but doesn’t help on the one that counts, the scoreboard and the W-L column.
@retire05: Compare that to the best your side of the aisle has to offer; aged crook in a pantsuit and a aged confirmed Socialist.
We can improve those resumes’ can’t we? Aged former first lady of former pervert/rapist and aged confirmed Socialist.
@Redteam: “defensive subs” lol Davos looked scared to death in those last 2 minutes–dodged a bullet.
You pretending you just now started thinking Trump might be the nom.? You’re catching him on the way down and out. He can’t insult his way to The Presidency.
Bill Clinton approval rating at 65%. Only The Pontiff is higher.
The Donald’s national numbers are lower than Obamas’–tough to do.
Were you one that gave him an approval vote? What did you base it on? Successfully getting away with raping several women, or just avoiding getting impeached and losing his law license for perjury? Just which of those ‘outstanding’ character traits do you think the folks voting were approving?
apples and oranges. That’s a vote for Trump vs all the Dims that don’t have good sense (admittedly a lot of those) and all the repubs that are currently for other candidates. If he becomes the nom, then those opposed Repubs go away. He’s not running against the Muslim so that doesn’t matter in any case.
Surely you’re not claiming that they didn’t coast after reaching an insurmountable lead. That’s like the dragster in the lead taking his foot off the gas, once the guy in second place has blown his head gasket.
@Redteam: If you think 18 points an “insurmountable lead” in college football you must be doing something else on Saturdays.
You are a typical Conserv. and the main reason Dems. keep winning National elections–don’t ever change–we thank you!
@rich wheeler: Insurmountable lead” You’ve got to remember we’re talking ND here. No sweat.
They knew they couldn’t come back that much. Fla St, maybe.
–let’s start with
9 pres elected for each party so how do you translate that to
Since Lincoln, the first Republican Party candidate elected to POTUS, there have been 11 Democrats elected and 18 Republicans, and only 10 Democrats if you count Grover Cleveland once who served two terms that were separated by the election of Benjamin Harrison.
I think RW wants Democrats elected so that all the states would be in as miserable condition as his home state of California is. You know the old adage; misery loves company.
@retire05 and sidekick: California vs. Texas or Loserana–you two are kidding.
Since 1932 Dems have held Presidency 47 years Repubs only 36.-We can cherry pick it any way we chose. Fact is demographics favor another Dem. win in 2016.
Do either of you honestly think The Donald could win the Presidency—Seriously.
Not kidding at all. Texas leads the nation in job creation (all those people fleeing Loonafornia need jobs). You see, as I told you before, you can’t eat scenery. Even when it comes to income, your earned dollar goes farther in Texas than it does Loonafornia. i.e. you get more for your money. Education wise, Texas is kicking your state’s a$$, especially in the area of minority graduates.
Are you not cherry picking when you choose an arbitrary time frame? Why, yes, you are. Pot, meet kettle.
And who would that be? The crook in the pantsuit or the Socialist?
The presidential election is eons away in political terms. In case you haven’t noticed, Trump is not the only one running. Why are you so fixated on Trump? At least he wouldn’t be rolled by Putin like Obama has been.
Well, let’s see if he is just arbitrarily picking a starting time. Let’s start with a day when Repubs are just completing 12 years and Dims are starting 20 straight years because of WWII. no, that would be arbitrary. So let’s add that 12 to the 36, that makes 48 and take off that 20 because of the war, that makes it 27, so that makes it almost double the time of Repubs to Dims. or we could take actual years since voters have had a choice of Repub or Dim and it would be 88 years of Repubs and 64 years of Dims. Quite a bit of difference isn’t there? That’s 58% of the time since there has been the two parties we have had a Repub pres. Want to put up some more numbers Richie?
You never did tell us what Slick’s accomplishments were that you approved of, was it the Rape cases or the perjury while pres? I’ll bet you choose Monica.
Richie, you need to find some more polls. All that I’ve seen out today shows Trump in the lead on every one. Which ones are you seeing?
RW is backing a guy that isn’t even registering in the polling for Democrats. Socialist Bernie Sanders is blowing everyone out of the water. So what is a poor liberal like RW to do? Vote for Sanders, or vote GOP? Such a quandary.
To hear the whinings of the left, you would think the election is tomorrow. Of course, RW doesn’t realize that not everyone on the right supports Trump. And the more the left points knarly fingers at Trump, the more publicity Trump gets. Gotta love it.
The left voted for their “rock star” candidate the last two times. Now that the right has a “rock star” candidate, they are soiling their Hanes and making snide remarks. Hypocrisy seems to be on the top of the left’s resume.
@Redteam: Thanks for confirming my “we all cherry pick” How obvious and irrelevant to 2016..
All polls show Trump’s lead shrinking in Iowa N.H and nationally–but you know that.
05–Trump a “rock star” You gotta be kidding. Let us Know when his national approval gets to 50%. Rock star #’s would be Bill Clinton 65%+ and Pope Francis 70%+ Rasmussen poll.
So why were you whining about it when you are just as guilty?
And your point is? That if Trump falls out, Crooked Pantsuit or Socialist Bernie wins?
Bill Clinton may be a rock star with less than half of the nation, but they don’t speak for all of us. As to Pope Franco, he’s a rock star with two groups: Catholic Democrats who ignore his stance on same sex marriage (I guess you lefties take what you can get and what you can try to play on) and Catholic LIVs. Traditional Catholics, who know this has all been predicted in Revelations, are not big fans. John Paul II he’s not.
@retire05 I repeat Clinton 65%+ Pope Francis 70+ Rasmussen poll. You realize that’s substantially different than your “less than half the nation” assertion.
I fully realize that over 70% of Repubs. do not support Trump.
BTW Sanders isn’t blowing out HRC nationally–trails by 15 points or Biden–up about 5
Gallup’s most recent poll (July) had Pope Franco at 59%. Cherry picking again, RW?
And which Clinton are you talking about? Surely not Shrillary. Can’t you liberals come up with someone better than a woman who wasn’t such a feminist when her husband was raping women and is simply a crook in a pantsuit or an aged Socialist? Scraping the bottom of the barrel this year, are you?
@retire05: 3RD TIME Rasmussen has Bill Clinton at 65%+ Pope at only 59%?–that is cherry picking.lol
BTW Cherry picking started with RT in #21, though as often the case, his #’s were wrong–does he know Truman only won once? Then he makes 9-9 when it’s 6d-5r–do you find him hard to follow? I simply moved the goal posts back to FDR’S first win in 1932–You then took it back to Abe. Game playing.
If you want to match Democrats against Republicans, you have to start at the beginning of the Republican Party, not some arbitrary point in which you come out on top.
That’s the problem with you liberals; you deal in dishonesty.
Forget the popular vote of the people.
The GOP has been changing their rules even AFTER Trump started to lead in some state polling.
For instance, North Carolina used to only have 29 delegates and now has 80 (IIRC).
But most of the new ones are GOP appointees, NOT delegates voted in by the public!
Why do that?
Because appointees are loyal to the PARTY, not to the most popular candidate.
Over half of NC’s delegates might vote Jeb! despite whoever wins the primary at the polling place.
In most other states the GOP’s appointees amount to less than 20% of their delegates.
I expect that to change, if there’s no revolt about the NC case.
And so far…..crickets.
The GOP nominating process is being gamed by the GOP so one of their candidates wins.
No outsider can win.
Trump was their biggest threat and they are busy de-fanging him.
It has nothing to do with a popular vote by the people, folks.
except of course he’s still leading in those states, and all the rest.
I think you’ll see that I listed FDR and HT for a total of 20 yrs, that’s 4+1.
I took it to the beginning of the republican party. since then all elections have been Dim and Rep. That was the only choices. When he started at FDR you started with a 20 year lead. had you backed up to the time a Rep reign started it would ;have been one sided (as it still is) to the Repubs.
So i’ll ask you again. You’re part of the 65, which part of Slick did you approve of his murder of Vince, Raping of several women, Monica, or his perjury under oath? I will admit those are traits a lot of dims do seem to admire.
@Redteam: In #21 you don’t mention FDR at all. Your post was wrong—but fact is it’s all cherry pickin.
Trump is dropping like a rock and even he knows it—reminds me of Herman Cain in 2012.
Nan may be right–Repubs may stack deck against Trump–Establishment money probably think Bush or Rubio has a better chance of beating HRC–PLUS- They can’t control Trump
You do realize that neither Bill Clinton or Pope Francis are running for president in 2016? And that Webb (whom you favor,) remains at 1%?
A vast majority of Republicans already believe the party establishment candidates have betrayed them. The heavy-handed manipulations of the establishment leadership have finally caught the notice of rank and file GOP voters. Make no mistake, if these GOP delegates go against the votes of the delegate’s precinct the party’s popular vote they will have violated the trust. They may win the primary for their chosen RINO but they will lose the base. I think it will spell the end of the Republican party, and create a huge outsider opportunity should one of the outsiders run as an independent..
For Greg and Rich:
Hillary Clinton’s legal adviser warns her: Time to lawyer up
Trump’s slight decline in the polls is nothing compared with Hillary’s steep plummet.
It is strange that Rich keeps pointing out Trump’s drop while pretending Shrillary’s is not dropping, as in ‘off a cliff’.
@Ditto: Murdoch’s Post–to the right of Fox–could they at least name this HRC advisor.
Trump’s slight decline–he’s down 25% across the board. He’s got no one left to insult– How will he ever get close to 40% needed to win even a 2 or 3 person final–those voters don’t exist.
RT HRC 41%-25% over Bernie with Biden at 20%
btw I got no skin in this game–just an interested observer at this point.
Isn’t it strange that Rich is so concerned about the Repub candidates? I guess that’s because he doesn’t have a Dim to be thrilled about. As of right now, the Dim party doesn’t have anyone running. Everyone in the civilized world knows the Dims won’t run Bernie or Biden, the BB Brothers with BB brains. It’s beginning to look as if Shrillary will be sporting Orange is the new Black outfits about that time.
Rich, which of Bill’s accomplishments do you most approve of? His rape cases?