How gender could win Trump the White House

CNN:

Conventional wisdom holds that women’s opposition to Donald Trump will sink him this November, and there is plenty of reason to believe that. A CNN poll found some 73% of all women disapprove of him, the highest gender opposition ever seen for a major candidate.

Echoing the polls, opinion writers are almost universally writing off Trump’s chances among women. He continues to alienate them, they say. What appeal he has among women is limited primarily to those who are ideologically conservative. In his fits of misogyny, freshlydocumented and chronicled over many years, he has hurled so many insults at women that they won’t forgive or forget

That’s the conventional wisdom. So, game over?

Not so fast. The latest numbers indicate that Trump’s approval among women has been climbing modestly since March, while his disapproval ratings are declining. And most of the commentary about Trump’s relationship with women is a product of looking at him and at Hillary Clinton through a gender lens only. If the sole question is which of them is more pro-women, of course she wins. But if one replaces the gender lens with an economic lens, the landscape of women voters takes on a completely different focus.

To be sure, most women do — and should — care about issues of gender equality. The country needs a president who will close the gaps in pay, policy and culture. Bu a recent CNN poll showsthat for most women, this election is about more than gender. Think back to the mantra of the first Clinton election in 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Once again, this election will likely hinge on this number one issue for voters of both genders.

The same CNN poll reveals that at the moment, women believe Clinton is more capable than Trump on the economy. If she continues to hold that lead, Clinton is almost guaranteed victory in November — but if Trump can stop taking pot shots at women and have the self-discipline to zero in on the economy and expanding economic opportunity for women, he has a golden opportunity to make far greater inroads into the women’s vote than he has now. He has abundant time and chances to change the conversation over the next six months.

Trump would be smart to target women on economic issues — not only because many of them bristle at his boorishness, but also because a majority of women voters think economic conditions right now are bad under President Obama’s leadership (compared to a minority of men). As long as Hillary Clinton pledges to continue Obama’s agenda, Trump has an opening to reinforce this negative assessment among women of Obama and the economy — and to tie Clinton to the President’s kite in the process.

That shouldn’t be hard to accomplish in the coming months, especially since there is little reason to think the economy will be robust by fall. The latest growth numbers and job numbers were miserable. China’s growth rate has slowed amid growing concern that its excessive debt could explode into an international crisis.

Supporters in both the Trump and Bernie Sanders’ camps continue to vent their economic frustration and anger. Consider, too, that since the Great Recession, nearly two-hirds of minimum wage earners are women and the majority do not have a spouse’s income on which to depend. Almost 56% of poor people today are women or girls, and close to 40% of single-mother households live in poverty.

Economic issues could also provide Trump with ways to reinforce perceptions that Clinton is untrustworthy. The Hillary Clinton who served in the Senate was a staunch friend of the business community; the Hillary Clinton now on the campaign trail is in the Sanders-Elizabeth Warren camp. Trump will surely ask: which Hillary will show up to run the economy from the White House?

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