When you login first time using a Social Login button, we collect your account public profile information shared by Social Login provider, based on your privacy settings. We also get your email address to automatically create an account for you in our website. Once your account is created, you'll be logged-in to this account.
DisagreeAgree
Connect with
I allow to create an account
When you login first time using a Social Login button, we collect your account public profile information shared by Social Login provider, based on your privacy settings. We also get your email address to automatically create an account for you in our website. Once your account is created, you'll be logged-in to this account.
DisagreeAgree
18 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
bbartlog
16 years ago
So how solid is your commitment? Suppose that McCain, Romney and Huckabee all do well in Iowa and NH, while Thompson and Giuliani do badly (like 4th and 5th). And that national polls then show Romney, McCain and Huckabee in a three-way fight (high 20s poll numbers), while Rudy has dropped to the low double digits. Still going to vote Giuliani, or do you then switch to Mitt in order to help stop Huckabee and McCain? What if Giuliani drops to single digits?
Just saying… Giuliani’s strategy requires his supporters to have nerves of steel. Hope you’re up for that :-).
While you know I disagree with you on who is the best for the job, you also know I will also be supporting whoever is the eventual GOP nominee. Any of them, even Huckabee, is better then Hillary, Obama or Edwards (with Huckabee it wouldn’t be much better but a little is better then nothing).
Rudy would definitely be my second choice tho. Mitt 3rd and McCain 4th.
“I’ve made it crystal clear that I will vote for Rudy in the SC primary. I didn’t say I “intend” to vote for Rudy.
Others may change their vote for reasons of strategy, but I’ve never been one of those. “
While I disagree with your choice of candidate, Mike, I highly respect this attitude from you. We need more people who will vote based on their principles and not flip, flop and then flip/flop some more for reasons of strategy based on the story of the day or the poll of the day.
Curt: It’s a credit to the strength of the posse at Flopping Aces that we need not agree on everything. And it’s been a tough decision for me between Rudy and Fred. Either one would be GREAT!
Michael in MI: Who are you voting for in the Michigan primary?
Are you also willing to make the pledge to support the GOP nominee?”
Mike – I will be voting for Fred Thompson. Come the November general election, it all depends on the nominee. I can’t see myself voting for Mike Huckabee or Ron Paul. I am less worried about Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, but I have big reservations about them as well.
All I know is that I will probably vote for the GOP nominee in November, if he is Mitt or Rudy, but I know I won’t be campaigning for anyone unless Fred Thompson gets the nomination. I can only campaign for someone I support. I don’t support Mitt, Huckabee, Rudy or Paul, therefore I am not going to try to sell something to someone that I don’t support.
Igor R.
16 years ago
Fred understands the nature of the big war and knows it’s a long one. He is also right on immigration. Rudy will hit the terrorists hard. But will he hit their masters? Will he pass the amnesty?
In terms of probabilities, I like to estimate them. Intrade gives Rudy a 30% chance for the Republican nomination and Fred 3%. I would personally just about reverse these. I don’t think Rudy has a reasonable chance, I just don’t see a path for him to win. His momentum is all wrong, and for him to beat Mitt, John, Huck, or Fred in Florida enough to overcome it after weeks of momentum-destroying events it would take a miracle, and then build a momentum to capture enough Southern states would take another miracle. With Fred, on Friday he will be in one of the following positions: 70% (if he places second in Iowa, itself a 20% probability), 30% (if he places a strong third, 40% probability) , 5% (if he places a weak third, 20% probability), 1% (if he places fourth or less, 20% probability). Rudy will be the same as he is today unless he places third or higher, which I estimate at 5% probability.
bbartlog
16 years ago
Rudy will be the same as he is today unless he places third or higher
Not even quite that. For those of us who have been following the race for a while, Rudy finishing 5th in Iowa won’t affect our opinion at all – we know this is a (fairly) likely outcome. But for the voters who have been paying very little attention prior to actual results rolling in, for people who don’t follow the polls, it may come as a surprise to see Giulani finish poorly. It will hurt him at least a little bit.
…places second in Iowa, itself a 20% probability
…places a strong third, 40% probability
…places a weak third, 20% probability
…places fourth or less, 20% probability
So you think the odds of Fred finishing third or better in Iowa are 80%? I would say you are very optimistic.
Bbartlog: Still waiting for you to answer my question. Michael in MI said he would “probably” support the eventual nominee….
How about you?
bbartlog
16 years ago
Yes, I previously answered this in comments here – I won’t take your pledge because I wouldn’t support Giuliani (the others are OK, not that I really like McCain and Huckabee, but I could vote for them over the Ds). Keep it up with the attempt to extract loyalty pledges though, it really makes it look like you have great confidence in the appeal of the eventual nominee.
What a shame bbartlog. You’ve made some progress in the past few months in demonstrating a more practical, rational outlook than your first foray here might have indicated.
But if you are unable to support whomever the eventual GOP nominee is, you do not deserve a place at the table as we consider the question.
Being a member of a political party doesn’t mean you always get what YOU want in every instance. And insisting that you should only leads to factionalism, disunity and defeat.
I will not vote for Rudy despite the author’s correct description of the importance of Leadership. But even more important for me is the President’s Judgement. I have disagreed with Bush on just about everything politically but my real issue with him are his flawed decisions and his decision making process. I think Rudy has made more poor decisions personally and professionally than I can overlook and I do not want to relive the last four years.
While not popular on this site I will vote either for McCain or Huckabee but not for the liar, the lazy or certainly not the looney thrice married cross dresser from New York City.
I’m not going to hurl insults at McCain (Huckabee is another matter) but I would ask you -this about McCain:
– Do you agree with his decision to vote against the Bush tax cuts?
– Do you believe the McCain Feingold campaign finance reform bill was a good idea? Is it constitutional to control political speech?
– Do you admire McCain’s active role in the “gang of 14”?
– Do you believe we should never waterboard terrorists even when the lives of thousands of Americans are at stake?
– Do you agree with McCain’s previous position from this summer proprosing a lenient “amnesty” for illegal aliens?
McCain’s right on National Security. No question. But that’s about it.
Huckabee can’t even get that right.
And if you fail to pledge to support the eventual nominee I take it you would be happier with President Hillary or President Obama. No doubt you’ll agree with their behavior more than you do Rudy’s.
I won’t ruin your well thought out post with all my positions but suffice it to say that I am in agreement with much of what you questioned me on including Bush and McCain’s position on illegal immigrants.
But the true point of my post was that I am more concerned with a person’s judgement than positions on these issues. Much like McCain’s active role in the “gang of 14” we all gain more when we try and work with those of the opposing party. I certainly plan to support the GOP candidate as it stands right now.
And I will chew my own leg off before I vote for Hillary Clinton for dog catcher, much less President.
I would encourage you to vote for whomever you feel best represents your position on the issues. If that’s McCain, go for it. I enjoyed meeting him.
But I profoundly disagree with his stand on those issues I cited and I do think that it says something about his judgement.
It seems that he failed to understand how his participation and the TIMING of it, in some of those issues was used to weaken the entire party in 2006 (the torture question specifically).
But if you pledge to support and vote for the eventual nominee, I’ll gladly listen to whatever you have to say.
Igor R.
16 years ago
bbartlog, yes I’m very optimistic about him placing thrid or higher. I just don’t believe in the McCain momentum and that’s the only thing that can stop Fred from that. I don’t believe he is taking votes from Romney, but I believe he is from Huck. It doesn’t take that many from Huck for him to place third reliably. So overall I think McCain has a 20% chance of placing third because the MSM has gone into overdrive to promote him.
BTW, I will vote for any nominee. I hate both McCain and Huck with passion, but if you rationally match them up against all three Dems they have some relative positives and no relative negatives. I don’t believe in the theory that you need to destroy the Republican party before restoring the natural order of things. With any of the Dems or McCain and Huck, and possibly Rudy or Mitt, unless there is a clear increase in the numbers of Congressional Republicans we WILL get the Amnesty and thus a permanent Democratic majority. It will not be possible to restore the Republican party in any meaningful sense for 50 years after that.
So how solid is your commitment? Suppose that McCain, Romney and Huckabee all do well in Iowa and NH, while Thompson and Giuliani do badly (like 4th and 5th). And that national polls then show Romney, McCain and Huckabee in a three-way fight (high 20s poll numbers), while Rudy has dropped to the low double digits. Still going to vote Giuliani, or do you then switch to Mitt in order to help stop Huckabee and McCain? What if Giuliani drops to single digits?
Just saying… Giuliani’s strategy requires his supporters to have nerves of steel. Hope you’re up for that :-).
Bbartlog: You should have learned by now I not only have nerves of steel but the teeth to go with them.
This ain’t my first time around the track.
I’ve made it crystal clear that I will vote for Rudy in the SC primary. I didn’t say I “intend” to vote for Rudy.
Others may change their vote for reasons of strategy, but I’ve never been one of those.
However, I HAVE committed SEVERAL TIMES to vote for the eventual GOP nominee.
Just remind me… have you done the same????
While you know I disagree with you on who is the best for the job, you also know I will also be supporting whoever is the eventual GOP nominee. Any of them, even Huckabee, is better then Hillary, Obama or Edwards (with Huckabee it wouldn’t be much better but a little is better then nothing).
Rudy would definitely be my second choice tho. Mitt 3rd and McCain 4th.
“I’ve made it crystal clear that I will vote for Rudy in the SC primary. I didn’t say I “intend” to vote for Rudy.
Others may change their vote for reasons of strategy, but I’ve never been one of those. “
While I disagree with your choice of candidate, Mike, I highly respect this attitude from you. We need more people who will vote based on their principles and not flip, flop and then flip/flop some more for reasons of strategy based on the story of the day or the poll of the day.
Curt: It’s a credit to the strength of the posse at Flopping Aces that we need not agree on everything. And it’s been a tough decision for me between Rudy and Fred. Either one would be GREAT!
Michael in MI: Who are you voting for in the Michigan primary?
Are you also willing to make the pledge to support the GOP nominee?”
Mike – I will be voting for Fred Thompson. Come the November general election, it all depends on the nominee. I can’t see myself voting for Mike Huckabee or Ron Paul. I am less worried about Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, but I have big reservations about them as well.
All I know is that I will probably vote for the GOP nominee in November, if he is Mitt or Rudy, but I know I won’t be campaigning for anyone unless Fred Thompson gets the nomination. I can only campaign for someone I support. I don’t support Mitt, Huckabee, Rudy or Paul, therefore I am not going to try to sell something to someone that I don’t support.
Fred understands the nature of the big war and knows it’s a long one. He is also right on immigration. Rudy will hit the terrorists hard. But will he hit their masters? Will he pass the amnesty?
In terms of probabilities, I like to estimate them. Intrade gives Rudy a 30% chance for the Republican nomination and Fred 3%. I would personally just about reverse these. I don’t think Rudy has a reasonable chance, I just don’t see a path for him to win. His momentum is all wrong, and for him to beat Mitt, John, Huck, or Fred in Florida enough to overcome it after weeks of momentum-destroying events it would take a miracle, and then build a momentum to capture enough Southern states would take another miracle. With Fred, on Friday he will be in one of the following positions: 70% (if he places second in Iowa, itself a 20% probability), 30% (if he places a strong third, 40% probability) , 5% (if he places a weak third, 20% probability), 1% (if he places fourth or less, 20% probability). Rudy will be the same as he is today unless he places third or higher, which I estimate at 5% probability.
Rudy will be the same as he is today unless he places third or higher
Not even quite that. For those of us who have been following the race for a while, Rudy finishing 5th in Iowa won’t affect our opinion at all – we know this is a (fairly) likely outcome. But for the voters who have been paying very little attention prior to actual results rolling in, for people who don’t follow the polls, it may come as a surprise to see Giulani finish poorly. It will hurt him at least a little bit.
…places second in Iowa, itself a 20% probability
…places a strong third, 40% probability
…places a weak third, 20% probability
…places fourth or less, 20% probability
So you think the odds of Fred finishing third or better in Iowa are 80%? I would say you are very optimistic.
Bbartlog: Still waiting for you to answer my question. Michael in MI said he would “probably” support the eventual nominee….
How about you?
Yes, I previously answered this in comments here – I won’t take your pledge because I wouldn’t support Giuliani (the others are OK, not that I really like McCain and Huckabee, but I could vote for them over the Ds). Keep it up with the attempt to extract loyalty pledges though, it really makes it look like you have great confidence in the appeal of the eventual nominee.
What a shame bbartlog. You’ve made some progress in the past few months in demonstrating a more practical, rational outlook than your first foray here might have indicated.
But if you are unable to support whomever the eventual GOP nominee is, you do not deserve a place at the table as we consider the question.
Being a member of a political party doesn’t mean you always get what YOU want in every instance. And insisting that you should only leads to factionalism, disunity and defeat.
Is that what you want?
I will not vote for Rudy despite the author’s correct description of the importance of Leadership. But even more important for me is the President’s Judgement. I have disagreed with Bush on just about everything politically but my real issue with him are his flawed decisions and his decision making process. I think Rudy has made more poor decisions personally and professionally than I can overlook and I do not want to relive the last four years.
While not popular on this site I will vote either for McCain or Huckabee but not for the liar, the lazy or certainly not the looney thrice married cross dresser from New York City.
CentFla: I take it you don’t like Rudy.
I’m not going to hurl insults at McCain (Huckabee is another matter) but I would ask you -this about McCain:
– Do you agree with his decision to vote against the Bush tax cuts?
– Do you believe the McCain Feingold campaign finance reform bill was a good idea? Is it constitutional to control political speech?
– Do you admire McCain’s active role in the “gang of 14”?
– Do you believe we should never waterboard terrorists even when the lives of thousands of Americans are at stake?
– Do you agree with McCain’s previous position from this summer proprosing a lenient “amnesty” for illegal aliens?
McCain’s right on National Security. No question. But that’s about it.
Huckabee can’t even get that right.
And if you fail to pledge to support the eventual nominee I take it you would be happier with President Hillary or President Obama. No doubt you’ll agree with their behavior more than you do Rudy’s.
Remember the words of Reagan!
I won’t ruin your well thought out post with all my positions but suffice it to say that I am in agreement with much of what you questioned me on including Bush and McCain’s position on illegal immigrants.
But the true point of my post was that I am more concerned with a person’s judgement than positions on these issues. Much like McCain’s active role in the “gang of 14” we all gain more when we try and work with those of the opposing party. I certainly plan to support the GOP candidate as it stands right now.
And I will chew my own leg off before I vote for Hillary Clinton for dog catcher, much less President.
I would encourage you to vote for whomever you feel best represents your position on the issues. If that’s McCain, go for it. I enjoyed meeting him.
But I profoundly disagree with his stand on those issues I cited and I do think that it says something about his judgement.
It seems that he failed to understand how his participation and the TIMING of it, in some of those issues was used to weaken the entire party in 2006 (the torture question specifically).
But if you pledge to support and vote for the eventual nominee, I’ll gladly listen to whatever you have to say.
bbartlog, yes I’m very optimistic about him placing thrid or higher. I just don’t believe in the McCain momentum and that’s the only thing that can stop Fred from that. I don’t believe he is taking votes from Romney, but I believe he is from Huck. It doesn’t take that many from Huck for him to place third reliably. So overall I think McCain has a 20% chance of placing third because the MSM has gone into overdrive to promote him.
BTW, I will vote for any nominee. I hate both McCain and Huck with passion, but if you rationally match them up against all three Dems they have some relative positives and no relative negatives. I don’t believe in the theory that you need to destroy the Republican party before restoring the natural order of things. With any of the Dems or McCain and Huck, and possibly Rudy or Mitt, unless there is a clear increase in the numbers of Congressional Republicans we WILL get the Amnesty and thus a permanent Democratic majority. It will not be possible to restore the Republican party in any meaningful sense for 50 years after that.
Igor: You always make a lot of sense. I hope bbartlog is paying attention.
Thanks Mike. You always have to think of what’s the best strategy, when things are good and when things are bad. Denial is the mother of most evil.