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Jan

Why I am Voting for Rudy

Posted by: Mike's America @ 11:59 am in Politics  | 0 views

But why I am not endorsing him in the SC Primary!

RudyBlufftonSCJouy62007AAA.jpg

Rudy Giuliani visits Mike’s America in July with this campaign appearance in Bluffton, South Carolina. Rudy explains his 12 Commitments to America in the 95 degree heat to an overflow crowd gathered at the waterfront. Photo by Mike’s America

With the Iowa Caucus just hours away and 18 days before the South Carolina GOP presidential primary, I felt it’s past time for me to get off the fence and declare my support for Rudy Giuliani as President of the United States!

It’s been a tough decision, there are a lot of good candidates out there and it’s been my privilege to meet and question many of them personally as they visited the South Carolina Lowcountry. You hear a lot of talk and a lot of promises at these campaign events. But always in the back of my mind the question that needed answering most is “can you get any of this done?”

There are many fine qualities that I look for in a candidate, but the most important can be summed up in one word: LEADERSHIP. And that’s the essential key to a successful presidency that I believe Rudy Giuliani possesses in spades.


I’m not talking about the former New York Mayor’s performance on September 11th (he seems to mention that enough without any help from me). Nor do I wish to review how he was able to hold the line on spending and cut taxes in New York while reducing dependence on welfare and cutting crime. The change in New York is clear to anyone who visits or lives in that City. No need for me to go into detail on all that, it’s a well established record of performance in one of the most difficult jobs in the country after the presidency.


What made him a successful Mayor is what would make him a successful President. Again, that quality is leadership. And it’s his style of leadership that I admire as well. When I heard him speak at the 2004 GOP Convention in New York, the first word that came to mind to describe his style was “Reaganesque.” (video, text, audio here). Rudy delivers a strong message. He does it with passion and conviction, but also with humor as I saw firsthand on that hot July day. (photo left from that event)

It confirmed my earlier impression of him as being one who understands the truly life and death challenges we confront and is not afraid to tackle them directly. His speech to the United Nations General Assembly weeks after September 11th demonstrates that:

Rudy Giuliani
Opening Remarks to the United Nations General Assembly
Special Session on Terrorism
Text
delivered 1 October 2001, New York

…On this issue – terrorism – the United Nations must draw a line. The era of moral relativism between those who practice or condone terrorism, and those nations who stand up against it, must end. Moral relativism does not have a place in this discussion and debate.

There is no moral way to sympathize with grossly immoral actions. And by trying to do that, unfortunately, a fertile field has been created in which terrorism has grown.

Rudy wouldn’t be the kind of president who says to the states that continue to sponsor terrorism: “hey, you might have a point there, let’s talk about it.” He won’t worry about whether every nation in the world likes us or not. He realizes that the first duty of a President is to keep this nation safe and we don’t achieve that by validating the viewpoints of those who use terrorism to achieve their goals. Again, it’s leadership that matters most in world affairs and is the essential element for building strong alliances to combat, not appease, evil.

We are blessed that President Bush has successfully foiled a number of terrorist attacks in the United States that would have further scarred our nation’s soil with blood and horror. That blessing may also weaken Rudy’s appeal somewhat as people feel that the danger has receded and that a candidate so strong on this vital issue is less necessary.

But the savage assassination of Benazhir Bhutto in Pakistan was a sad reminder that we are just one suicide bomber away from the same grief that grips Pakistan today.

Value’s Voters

As the perceived threat of terrorism recedes, the question of social values has come to the fore in Rudy’s campaign. Rudy tackled those issues head on in his speech to the Value’s Voters Summit in October, and I won’t hear any criticism of him on those issues from persons who haven’t read excerpts from that speech.

He reminded his audience: “Ronald Reagan had a great way of summarizing it. He used to say my 80 percent friend is not my 100 percent enemy.” Rudy is not the enemy of values voters. He is their friend. Adoptions soared in New York and abortions declined on Rudy’s watch as mayor. Can Mike Huckabee say the same about his time as Governor of Arkansas?

I suppose if you cast your vote on the basis of First Lady or the perfect family, you’ll pull the lever for Romney. But despite Hillary Clinton’s insistence to the contrary, a First Lady, as much as she might be admired, is not the key to a successful presidency.

Rudy Not Perfect, Just RIGHT!

Rudy Giuliani may not be the perfect candidate or the perfect husband. Sadly, no such person exists. However, Rudy is the RIGHT man for the job. He’s RIGHT on the the most crucial life and death issue of our time. He’s RIGHT on so many of our core conservative GOP issues. And he’s the RIGHT man to get the job done.

Why I am Not Endorsing Rudy in SC Primary

You’d think after all that I would be leading the charge for Rudy in the last days before the South Carolina GOP presidential primary on January 19th. I would, there’s just one problem: Rudy’s campaign in SC has been invisible.

Despite how many emails I sent to local GOP officials and even members of Rudy’s campaign, it was extremely difficult to find anyone who could tell me anything about Rudy’s campaign and how people who support him might get involved.

Meanwhile, I’ve watched as Rudy’s number in the SC Real Clear Politics polling averages has dropped from a healthy lead earlier this year to now 5th place. Some of that was inevitable as the campaign heated up and other candidates had their chance to be heard. But a stronger effort in this state might have preserved Rudy’s position and made him more competitive in this “First in the South” primary.

I finally found someone with Rudy’s SC campaign that would answer an email and he insisted that the campaign was making every effort to WIN in South Carolina. He rattled off a a list of steps they were taking. I have seen ONE television commercial he said would be running. But John McCain has ads running hourly on a local talk radio station and I’ve received numerous phone calls and mailings from Mitt Romney.

Rudy’s last visit to my area was on December 1 in a campaign stop at Sun City, a gated community of retirees where non-residents are unwelcome. Thus, he excluded 70% of the area’s GOP voting base. It’s possible he’ll come back again and that his campaign will raise his visibility in South Carolina. But it’s not likely to be enough to win, or even place well.

Rudy’s Risky Strategy Working?

Writing in the Weekly Standard, Dean Barnett describes Rudy’s strategy this way:

[Rudy's] plan to win the nomination–get beat like a rented mule for the first month and then win Florida–was so half-baked and poorly conceived, the people who came up with it should have their licenses to politically consult suspended through the 2012 election. At least. Make a list of those consultants’ names. They are the Ed Rollinses of tomorrow.

Brent Seaborn, Rudy’s Strategy Director and possibly one of those “Ed Rollinses of tomorrow” disagrees:

[O]ur campaign remains convinced that our strategy we have long had in place is right – bold, innovative and designed to deal with the radically different election calendar…we clearly have a winning plan to secure the nomination in an election cycle unlike any other. History will prove us right.”

If Rudy’s strategy is successful it will make McCain’s comeback from the dead seem trivial by comparison and raise the reputation of Rudy’s strategists above that of Karl Rove. Either that or it will be the biggest bust of all time.

And what a shame that GOP voters in South Carolina won’t be asked to play a larger role. It’s Rudy’s clear weakness in the early states that may be holding back potential support in the later states as well.

Quick Look at the Other Guys

  • Fred Thompson. When Fred visited Mike’s America in October I asked him how he would get the job done. I believe he has strong leadership skills and is RIGHT on the issues as well. But like Rudy, his falling polling average in South Carolina is echoed in weaknesses in other states as well. He could still surprise us in Iowa and that would breathe new life into his campaign.
  • Mitt Romney visited Mike’s America in November and when I had some face time with him, I asked if he was really the conservative he claimed to be. His answer hit every talking point his campaign was trying to make, but I had the nagging feeling he was telling me what he thought I wanted to hear. Still, he’s a solid candidate with great support among the more traditional establishment Republicans.
  • I took my mother to meet John McCain’s mother at this very memorable visit also in November. No better way to get the feel for a candidate than in a relaxed living room, not some pushy big event. But McCain asked me to pass this along to my “blogging friends” as he repeatedly referred to you all, that if you disagreed with him on his part in the “Gang of 14″ and other issues, then don’t vote for him. “I’m not your candidate” he said. Sorry John. You’re not my candidate.
  • I haven’t met Mike Huckabee. If he’s made a visit here locally I wasn’t informed. And probably just as well. His article describing the Bush White House as having an “arrogant, bunker mentality” was a slap in the face to all of us who have stood by President Bush and his further gaffes on the campaign trail make it clear that what we don’t need is another former Governor from Hope, Arkansas in the White House.
  • As for Ron Paul — He’s another Pied Piper leading mostly naive, inexperienced political newcomers away from a more rounded and comprehensive understanding of the complex issues we face, not to mention their participation in a viable political process. He would initiate U.S. surrender worldwide and place us once again in a vulnerable isolationist position. We paid for that mistake in the 20th Century with the loss of hundreds of thousands of American lives. The cost in blood this time would be in the millions of lives.

Taking all that into account leaves me with just one choice:

Presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani with wife Judith at the seaside in Bluffton, SC July 6, 2007. Photo by Mike’s America

I pledge to support whomever the eventual nominee is. And unless those who disagree with my choice will make the same pledge, I won’t treat their viewpoint with any consideration.

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This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 1st, 2008 at 11:59 am and is filed under Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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18 comments so far

bbartlog
 1Reply to this comment  

So how solid is your commitment? Suppose that McCain, Romney and Huckabee all do well in Iowa and NH, while Thompson and Giuliani do badly (like 4th and 5th). And that national polls then show Romney, McCain and Huckabee in a three-way fight (high 20s poll numbers), while Rudy has dropped to the low double digits. Still going to vote Giuliani, or do you then switch to Mitt in order to help stop Huckabee and McCain? What if Giuliani drops to single digits?
Just saying… Giuliani’s strategy requires his supporters to have nerves of steel. Hope you’re up for that :-) .

January 1st, 2008 at 12:33 pm
 2Reply to this comment  

Bbartlog: You should have learned by now I not only have nerves of steel but the teeth to go with them.

This ain’t my first time around the track.

I’ve made it crystal clear that I will vote for Rudy in the SC primary. I didn’t say I “intend” to vote for Rudy.

Others may change their vote for reasons of strategy, but I’ve never been one of those.

However, I HAVE committed SEVERAL TIMES to vote for the eventual GOP nominee.

Just remind me… have you done the same????

January 1st, 2008 at 12:43 pm
 3Reply to this comment  

While you know I disagree with you on who is the best for the job, you also know I will also be supporting whoever is the eventual GOP nominee. Any of them, even Huckabee, is better then Hillary, Obama or Edwards (with Huckabee it wouldn’t be much better but a little is better then nothing).

Rudy would definitely be my second choice tho. Mitt 3rd and McCain 4th.

January 1st, 2008 at 1:41 pm
 4Reply to this comment  

“I’ve made it crystal clear that I will vote for Rudy in the SC primary. I didn’t say I “intend” to vote for Rudy.

Others may change their vote for reasons of strategy, but I’ve never been one of those. “

While I disagree with your choice of candidate, Mike, I highly respect this attitude from you. We need more people who will vote based on their principles and not flip, flop and then flip/flop some more for reasons of strategy based on the story of the day or the poll of the day.

January 1st, 2008 at 2:26 pm
 5Reply to this comment  

Curt: It’s a credit to the strength of the posse at Flopping Aces that we need not agree on everything. And it’s been a tough decision for me between Rudy and Fred. Either one would be GREAT!

Michael in MI: Who are you voting for in the Michigan primary?

Are you also willing to make the pledge to support the GOP nominee?”

January 1st, 2008 at 2:37 pm
 6Reply to this comment  

Mike – I will be voting for Fred Thompson. Come the November general election, it all depends on the nominee. I can’t see myself voting for Mike Huckabee or Ron Paul. I am less worried about Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, but I have big reservations about them as well.

All I know is that I will probably vote for the GOP nominee in November, if he is Mitt or Rudy, but I know I won’t be campaigning for anyone unless Fred Thompson gets the nomination. I can only campaign for someone I support. I don’t support Mitt, Huckabee, Rudy or Paul, therefore I am not going to try to sell something to someone that I don’t support.

January 1st, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Igor R.
 7Reply to this comment  

Fred understands the nature of the big war and knows it’s a long one. He is also right on immigration. Rudy will hit the terrorists hard. But will he hit their masters? Will he pass the amnesty?

In terms of probabilities, I like to estimate them. Intrade gives Rudy a 30% chance for the Republican nomination and Fred 3%. I would personally just about reverse these. I don’t think Rudy has a reasonable chance, I just don’t see a path for him to win. His momentum is all wrong, and for him to beat Mitt, John, Huck, or Fred in Florida enough to overcome it after weeks of momentum-destroying events it would take a miracle, and then build a momentum to capture enough Southern states would take another miracle. With Fred, on Friday he will be in one of the following positions: 70% (if he places second in Iowa, itself a 20% probability), 30% (if he places a strong third, 40% probability) , 5% (if he places a weak third, 20% probability), 1% (if he places fourth or less, 20% probability). Rudy will be the same as he is today unless he places third or higher, which I estimate at 5% probability.

January 1st, 2008 at 6:28 pm
bbartlog
 8Reply to this comment  

Rudy will be the same as he is today unless he places third or higher

Not even quite that. For those of us who have been following the race for a while, Rudy finishing 5th in Iowa won’t affect our opinion at all – we know this is a (fairly) likely outcome. But for the voters who have been paying very little attention prior to actual results rolling in, for people who don’t follow the polls, it may come as a surprise to see Giulani finish poorly. It will hurt him at least a little bit.

…places second in Iowa, itself a 20% probability
…places a strong third, 40% probability
…places a weak third, 20% probability
…places fourth or less, 20% probability

So you think the odds of Fred finishing third or better in Iowa are 80%? I would say you are very optimistic.

January 1st, 2008 at 6:49 pm
 9Reply to this comment  

Bbartlog: Still waiting for you to answer my question. Michael in MI said he would “probably” support the eventual nominee….

How about you?

January 1st, 2008 at 7:45 pm
bbartlog
 10Reply to this comment  

Yes, I previously answered this in comments here – I won’t take your pledge because I wouldn’t support Giuliani (the others are OK, not that I really like McCain and Huckabee, but I could vote for them over the Ds). Keep it up with the attempt to extract loyalty pledges though, it really makes it look like you have great confidence in the appeal of the eventual nominee.

January 1st, 2008 at 9:40 pm
 11Reply to this comment  

What a shame bbartlog. You’ve made some progress in the past few months in demonstrating a more practical, rational outlook than your first foray here might have indicated.

But if you are unable to support whomever the eventual GOP nominee is, you do not deserve a place at the table as we consider the question.

Being a member of a political party doesn’t mean you always get what YOU want in every instance. And insisting that you should only leads to factionalism, disunity and defeat.

Is that what you want?

January 1st, 2008 at 10:07 pm
 12Reply to this comment  

I will not vote for Rudy despite the author’s correct description of the importance of Leadership. But even more important for me is the President’s Judgement. I have disagreed with Bush on just about everything politically but my real issue with him are his flawed decisions and his decision making process. I think Rudy has made more poor decisions personally and professionally than I can overlook and I do not want to relive the last four years.

While not popular on this site I will vote either for McCain or Huckabee but not for the liar, the lazy or certainly not the looney thrice married cross dresser from New York City.

January 2nd, 2008 at 6:31 am
 13Reply to this comment  

CentFla: I take it you don’t like Rudy.

I’m not going to hurl insults at McCain (Huckabee is another matter) but I would ask you -this about McCain:

- Do you agree with his decision to vote against the Bush tax cuts?
- Do you believe the McCain Feingold campaign finance reform bill was a good idea? Is it constitutional to control political speech?
- Do you admire McCain’s active role in the “gang of 14″?
- Do you believe we should never waterboard terrorists even when the lives of thousands of Americans are at stake?
- Do you agree with McCain’s previous position from this summer proprosing a lenient “amnesty” for illegal aliens?

McCain’s right on National Security. No question. But that’s about it.

Huckabee can’t even get that right.

And if you fail to pledge to support the eventual nominee I take it you would be happier with President Hillary or President Obama. No doubt you’ll agree with their behavior more than you do Rudy’s.

Remember the words of Reagan!

January 2nd, 2008 at 7:36 am
 14Reply to this comment  

I won’t ruin your well thought out post with all my positions but suffice it to say that I am in agreement with much of what you questioned me on including Bush and McCain’s position on illegal immigrants.

But the true point of my post was that I am more concerned with a person’s judgement than positions on these issues. Much like McCain’s active role in the “gang of 14″ we all gain more when we try and work with those of the opposing party. I certainly plan to support the GOP candidate as it stands right now.

And I will chew my own leg off before I vote for Hillary Clinton for dog catcher, much less President.

January 2nd, 2008 at 8:01 am
 15Reply to this comment  

I would encourage you to vote for whomever you feel best represents your position on the issues. If that’s McCain, go for it. I enjoyed meeting him.

But I profoundly disagree with his stand on those issues I cited and I do think that it says something about his judgement.

It seems that he failed to understand how his participation and the TIMING of it, in some of those issues was used to weaken the entire party in 2006 (the torture question specifically).

But if you pledge to support and vote for the eventual nominee, I’ll gladly listen to whatever you have to say.

January 2nd, 2008 at 8:08 am
Igor R.
 16Reply to this comment  

bbartlog, yes I’m very optimistic about him placing thrid or higher. I just don’t believe in the McCain momentum and that’s the only thing that can stop Fred from that. I don’t believe he is taking votes from Romney, but I believe he is from Huck. It doesn’t take that many from Huck for him to place third reliably. So overall I think McCain has a 20% chance of placing third because the MSM has gone into overdrive to promote him.

BTW, I will vote for any nominee. I hate both McCain and Huck with passion, but if you rationally match them up against all three Dems they have some relative positives and no relative negatives. I don’t believe in the theory that you need to destroy the Republican party before restoring the natural order of things. With any of the Dems or McCain and Huck, and possibly Rudy or Mitt, unless there is a clear increase in the numbers of Congressional Republicans we WILL get the Amnesty and thus a permanent Democratic majority. It will not be possible to restore the Republican party in any meaningful sense for 50 years after that.

January 2nd, 2008 at 11:20 am
 17Reply to this comment  

Igor: You always make a lot of sense. I hope bbartlog is paying attention.

January 2nd, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Igor R.
 18Reply to this comment  

Thanks Mike. You always have to think of what’s the best strategy, when things are good and when things are bad. Denial is the mother of most evil.

January 2nd, 2008 at 5:25 pm

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