Moment of Truth for Musharraf and Pakistan

Waziristan

Last year Pakistan’s government signed a truce with militants in the lawless region of Waziristan which is located along the border with Afghanistan.

The agreement was intended to stop attacks by the militants and Taliban against government forces in the region and included a promise that the militants would "distance themselves from foreign militants" such as Al Queda.

Guess what? The militants cheated on the deal from day one. Attacks in coordination with Al Queda against targets in nearby Afghanistan soared. But Musharraf turned a blind eye to those concerns as long as the militants did not attack Pakistani government forces.

As usual, when you show indifference to blatant cheating on an agreement such as the truce, you demonstrate weakness to your enemy and invite further aggression.

This is exactly what happened as radicals at the Red Mosque in the heart of the Pakistani capital Islamabad received direct support including foreign fighters and weapons from Al Queda #2 al Zawahiri in a bid to provoke a confrontation with Musharraf’s government and spark an Islamic revolution.

Clearly the bid to use the martyrdom of the Red Mosque radicals and Al Queda fighters failed to ignite a revolution toppling Musharraf. This time.

Has Musharraf Gotten the Message?

After all the assassination attempts on his life, including the most recent where radicals attempted to shoot down his plane, Musharraf must know by now that there is no way to make a deal with these radicals. You either defeat them, or they will kill you.

After the Red Mosque attack Musharraf seems to have gotten the message. "Terror and extremism have not ended in Pakistan," he said. "But it is our resolve to eliminate them…. Extremism and terrorism will be defeated in every corner of the country."

Thousands of Pakistani troops are now streaming back into the region and already many have been killed in suicide attacks. U.S. officials ,who have been unanimous in condemning the broken deal with militants, are fully backing the military operation and promising $750 million as part of an economic assistance package to encourage militants in the region to stop supporting terrorists.

Despite the fact that tribal militants themselves pronounced the flawed truce dead, conflicting stories continue to suggest that the government of Pakistan is looking to salvage the truce.

While the full range of political, military and economic options should be explored, no one should be under any illusions regarding the necessity of approaching the problem from the vantage point of a strong military position.

Peace through strength! It works every time it’s tried. And it may be Musharraf’s last chance!