Leon H. Wolf:
There are two things that are driving Trump’s recent nose dive in the polls. The first is that he has lost support among independent voters. The second is that he has lost support amongst the registered voters of his own party. Trump cannot survive either of these things and both problems must be fixed if he is going to have a chance to win.
The dynamic in recent Presidential elections has been remarkably static: the Democrat candidate wins the registered Democrat vote by a margin of about 90-9, and the Republican candidate wins the registered Republican vote by about the same margin. Victory is achieved by some combination of turning out your base more efficiently than the other guy, and winning the Independent vote.
As I noted last night and before, Trump is not doing that. Recent polls show that Trump has been getting 80% of less of Registered Republicans, and an even smaller number of self-identified conservatives. This, by itself, would ordinarily be fatal to the Presidential aspirations of any general election candidate, but Trump has been polling lower-than-average among members of his own party since day one (although he reached a high point of about 85% Republican support right after the convention, which coincided with the one brief lead he held in the polls). Trump has stayed competitive in this race because he has done well with independents, but that lead has crumbled, and the end result is that he’s fallen behind into landslide territory.
The simple fact is that Trump needs to reverse both trends if he is going to manage a lead that will be in any way sustainable. Trump simply cannot manage to sustain the 20-point lead with Independents that he will need if he continues to hemorrhage 20% of his own party. In spite of his bluster to the contrary, Trump does need the conservative voters who he lost in the primary. He needs the #NeverTrump people to become at the very least #MaybeTrump. There’s a reason he knelt at the altar of Paul Ryan and John McCain last weekend even though doing so angered some of his most prominent early supporters.
His more intelligent supporters know it, too, which is why they’ve transitioned from mocking #NeverTrump as an insignificant movement that will make no difference in the election, to attempting to convince #NeverTrump to abandon their stance.
Unfortunately, the only tools of persuasion they have in their arsenal seem to be peer pressure and intimidation. The first of these takes the form of “you’re helping Hillary win” or some other variant of “you’re letting the team down” or “I won’t be friends with you anymore if you don’t vote the way I want.” Here is a news flash: a necessary precursor to becoming #NeverTrump is reaching the conclusion that Trump is either as bad or worse than Hillary – or at the very least, insufficiently better than her to merit a vote. Telling such a person “you’re helping Hillary win” (which isn’t even true) is like trying to talk someone out of buying a Ferrari by telling them that it drives very fast.
The other thing they try is flat out intimidation. Thinly veiled threats like “We’ll remember who stood with us and who won’t,” or not-veiled-at-all threats are thrown at everyone in the #NeverTrump movement by Trump supporters on Twitter every day.
Leon has it backwards. The barbs from Trump and his supporters are caused by the NeverTrumpers saying that they stand for conservatism, but who are willing to allow HRC to win just because the GOP candidate does not 100% buy into either the radical conservative wing of the party (ban abortion, gay marriage) or the Establishment wing of the GOP (talk against illegal immigration but do nothing that would upset the American Chamber of Commerce, talk conservative while being progressive).
The latter group should go ahead and declare themselves to be Democrats. The former need to come to the reality that abortion is legal, will remain legal, and frankly should remain legal for many cases. The world does not exactly suffer from a shortage of people…
@Dreadnought: Trump continues to fire up the 18 mill he got in Repub. primaries but he needs 66 mill. to win. He’ll go down in a blaze–but a loss is a loss
His biggest problem among the majority of voters is his temperament and his foot in mouth disease. Some here at FA LOVE IT and it worked in the Repub. Primaries. Doesn’t work in G.E. Can he make the adjustment? Does he want to?
It appears now, he’d rather lose as Trump being Trump than moderate, and act “Presidential” in order to get the “W” Thank God for him that HRC is his opponent–CURRENTLY UP 7%–Uncle Joe would be up 10-12%
On the other side Rubio or Kasich would be up on HRC
Trump likely loses in Penn. Mich—E.C. 310-229 Rubio and Ryan gear up for 2020 race
Trump’s opponent is Hilary Clinton.
If you need any reason beyond that to vote for him you cannot credibly call yourself a conservative.
A Trump presidency represents the possibility, in fact I’ll even concede the strong possibility, of being horrible. But even a one-term Clinton presidency has a 100% certainty to do damage to our society and our Constitution that won’t be undone in less than a century.
Get over yourselves, hold your nose and vote for the only candidate that shows even the possibility of being kinda good.
If HRC wins this year, there is no way in hell that the GOP wins in 2020.
To repeat. If HRC wins, she is in for 8 years.
Just in case you are tone deaf: Rubio and Ryan (and anyone else in the GOP) have no hope of winning in 2020.
She has a media that will be pulling for her 100%. That will not change even if she stabs a child in the heart in front of cameras on the White House steps.
The Democratic money machine, plus her own Clinton Foundation mafia, gives her unprecedented resources that no establishment GOP candidate can hope to match in an election.
First of all, an establishment GOP candidate has no credibility with the US electorate. We gave them Congress in 2010,2012, and 2014, and they did fuck-all with it.
An ultra-conservative candidate is too beholden to the wacky evangelicals, who want to make abortion illegal and put gays back in the closet. That just drives away all the independents and moderate conservatives and libertarians. Face it – no civilized country has banned abortion after it has been legal (and we are hardly short of people anyway), and gay rights are here to stay.
Thee only hope for the GOP is a relatively moderate candidate who cannot be categorized as a religious nutcase, nor beholden to GOP special interests who frankly have destroyed the party (most especially the Chamber of Commerce). Trump fits that bill. He is also someone with a history of getting things done when he wants to, delegating, and is experienced at negotiating good deals and knowing how to walk away when the deal is no good – all characteristics that we want in a President and very rare among politicians.
The only problem people have with him is his ego and his habit of stepping on every rake within a mile. I wish someone would cut off access to his Twitter account, and force him to stick to a script. He sounds awful when he wings it.
But these are superficial problems. At the core, I think Trump truly wants to do the right thing for the country and has the skills to do it. And that already puts him head and shoulders above HRC.
“The barbs from Trump and his supporters are caused by the NeverTrumpers saying that they stand for conservatism, but who are willing to allow HRC to win just because the GOP candidate does not 100% buy into either the radical conservative wing of the party (ban abortion, gay marriage) or the Establishment wing of the GOP (talk against illegal immigration but do nothing that would upset the American Chamber of Commerce, talk conservative while being progressive).”
That’s the meme being pushed by Trumpsters. But here is a question for you; if a person votes third party, or independent, does that also relate to a vote for Hillary in your mind? No, it means that Trump, nor Hillary was voted for by someone voting for the alternative. And a non-vote is just that; not a vote for anyone.
Effectively, yes. None of the 3rd party candidates have a chance to win. The choice is HRC, or Trump. That’s it. No other choice.
And not voting is not a valid option either – because not having either HRC or Trump is not an option. It’s a cop-out. Voting 3rd party or not voting are equally indefensible. HRC or Trump.
At least Trump is more likely to be ruled by common sense rather than who pays her the most, and has promised a list of decent judges for the USSC.
So you are assuming the authority to tell a person what their choices should be? Who gave you that authority? If your choice is an independent, or Green Party or whatever other banner the candidate is running under, that is your choice. And since when should people’s vote be determined based on “a chance to win?” I thought it was all about freedom of choice to select the candidate you, personally, feel would make the best President. Guess not according to you.
Typical Trumpster tripe. Perhaps you can show me in the Constitution where there is a requirement to vote? Or to vote the way you demand?
I have yet to see any evidence of Trump’s “common sense” on display. And as far as his list of “decent” judges, you seem to forget they have to get through the process first. Robert Bork ring a bell?
It is not authority but common sense that we are trying to bring to bear. Those who do not realize the evil the hildebeast will bring to the White House even after all the crookedness has come to light are just as bad as the libtards as they believe their own feelings are more important that the future of our country. The choices are Trump or the hildebeast. Not voting or doing a silly vote for a worthless 3rd party candidate is the same thing as pulling the lever for her. Knowing the amount of vote fraud that the dims (as usual) will bring to bear, EVERY vote is needed. I will take a chance on a man with a history of accomplishment and failure over someone whose entire life is a catalog of crookedness and evil. Your choice…
Do sotomayor and kagan ring a bell?