Posted by Curt on 27 February, 2023 at 11:47 am. 41 comments already!


by Michael Snyder

The conflict in Ukraine has reached such a dangerous phase.  For several months, the front lines in Ukraine were relatively stable, and that was a good thing because it meant that both sides were less likely to make really desperate moves.  But now Russian forces are making a major breakthrough.  The Ukrainians had poured countless troops into Bakhmut in an all-out attempt to keep the city, and they were able to successfully hold it for months.  But now Russian forces have almost entirely encircled Bakhmut, and once Bakhmut falls there is going to be nothing but flat terrain between the Russians and the Dnieper River.  If Russian forces actually reach the Dnieper River, the Ukrainians are going to become extremely desperate, and it is likely that they may try something extremely stupid in a desperate attempt to pull western forces into the war.
It is being reported that Bakhmut is now “operationally encircled” by Russian forces, and it appears that most of the Ukrainian troops that are still there will be completely trapped…

Some 10,000 to 20,000 troops comprising the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut are now trapped. Reports say that the city is operationally encircled with diminishing chance of a breakout.

There aren’t many places to hide in Bakhmut at this point.
As you can see from this drone footage, the city has been almost entirely flattened by artillery…
That footage looks like it could have been pulled out of a post-apocalyptic disaster film.
But that really is Bakhmut.
I don’t even have sufficient words to describe how horrific the battle for Bakhmut has been.
The Ukrainians just kept pouring more men and more women into a losing cause, and one American that has been fighting on the front lines says that the average life expectancy for a Ukrainian sent to Bakhmut “is only around four hours”

As winter weather fades and spring approaches, military experts are speculating a renewed offensive from Russian forces. Frontlines shifted to Bakhmut—a city in eastern Ukraine—in July 2022, and according to former U.S. Marine Troy Offenbecker, the scene is grisly.
Offenbecker, who is fighting in Ukraine’s International Legion comprised of foreign soldiers, told ABC News that when a Ukrainian soldier fights on the frontlines in Bakhmut, their life expectancy is only around four hours.

But this is what the foreign policy establishment in Washington D.C. wanted.
They wanted to fight to the last Ukrainian, and that is exactly what is happening.
Once Bakhmut falls, it is likely that the Ukrainians will attempt to establish a new line of defense around Kramatorsk and Seversk

After months of predictions of Ukraine retreating from Bakhmut it appears the moment is nigh. One of the key unanswered questions is how many Ukrainian soldiers will be captured and how many will escape. Regardless, this will mark another phase for Russia in its Ukrainian campaign to demilitarize and denazify. Ukraine’s next line of defense to the west (Kramatorsk and Seversk) is problematic because it sits in low ground and will be more vulnerable to Russian artillery.

But Kramatorsk and Seversk will be much more difficult to defend than Bakhmut was.
Once the Russians are able to move on from Bakhmut, what they will find is “a lot of open country and not much to prevent a Russian advance all the way to the Dnieper River”…

To the west of Bakhmut is a lot of open country and not much to prevent a Russian advance all the way to the Dnieper River. There is no hard evidence yet that the Ukrainian army has prepared a second line of defense.
This means the way may be open for a possible major offensive by Russian forces. Whether that will happen and what Russia’s goals are remain to be seen.

This is one of the reasons why the Ukrainians were so determined to hold Bakhmut.
If Russian tanks start rolling all the way to the Dnieper River, it is going to become obvious to the entire world that Ukraine is losing.
And at that point the Ukrainians will become very desperate.
But they just won’t roll over and give up.  I expect that eventually there will be some sort of a major “event” that will be intended to force the western powers to become direct participants in the war.
Of course U.S. officials are already pledging “unconditional support” for Ukraine, and more aid has just been announced.
The grand total that we have already given Ukraine is close to 200 billion dollars, and that figure is only going to go higher in the months ahead.
In addition, the U.S. has already taken in 271,000 Ukrainian refugees

More than 271,000 Ukrainian refugees have been admitted to the United States since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began one year ago, according to the Department of Homeland Security, far above President Joe Biden’s stated goal of admitting 100,000.
Just over two-fifths, or more than 117,000, of those who were admitted came via the Biden administration’s “Uniting for Ukraine” program, which allows Americans to sponsor Ukrainians to prove that they will be financially supported in the U.S. DHS, which administers the program, said more than 200,000 Americans came forward as sponsors.

Sadly, this is just the beginning.

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