Posted by Curt on 14 January, 2020 at 12:29 pm. 2 comments already!


Great thread from Richard Goldberg which I pulled from his twitter feed:

When you see coverage & commentary on today’s E3 action on Iran, those who support the Iran Deal do NOT want to end the deal. They will say things to make it sound scary to end the deal in the Security Council. But keeping this deal & its sunsets is what should scare you most.

What should you fear if the Iran Deal doesn’t end soon? Besides continued legitimacy for Iran’s illicit nuclear program, the “sunsets” are killers. No really, they will kill. Sunsets are terminations on key multilateral restrictions on #Iran that have been in place for years.

Why do these sunsets exist? As if the Iran deal itself wasn’t horrible on it own for letting Iran keep its nuclear capabilities intact, whitewash the regime’s past nuclear weapons program and handing over billions of dollars, John Kerry gave Iran even more! Sunsets!

The most pressing of those sunsets is the international arms embargo on Iran. Today, countries can’t transfer key conventional weapons to the regime. Starting this October, if the deal doesn’t end at the Security Council, that embargo lifts. Russia & China standing by to sell.

Why on earth would we let this sunset go forward if there’s a way to stop it by snapping back all UN sanctions and restrictions based on Iran’s nuclear activities? If you think Iran is a threat today, wait until they’re shopping the Russian/Chinese arms catalogues.

What will supporters of the JCPOA say to scare you away from snapback?

-there will be nothing left to restrict Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons;
-Iran will never negotiate another deal;
-China and Russia will ignore the snapback and sell weapons; and
-Iran will leave the NPT.

First, something does replace the end of the JCPOA: all prior restrictions and standards for Iran. By order of UNSCR 1929 and prior resolutions: NO enrichment allowed; NO missile testing allowed; NO end to the arms embargo; NO sunsets on enrichment/reprocessing.

Second, Iran says it will never negotiate another deal today. What’s the difference? I’d rather have this evil regime under pressure without Russian and Chinese arms flowing. If this regime doesn’t fall, it will soon negotiate. Why give them any strategic advantage?

Third, Russia and China could violate the arms embargo today but they don’t. They want it to be legal/legit. How exactly do they plan to ignore a fully lawful SnapBack of UN sanctions and the restoration of the arms embargo? If they do, wouldn’t they be blowing up the Council?

Finally, Iran would become a permanent pariah by leaving the NPT. See North Korea for details. For a regime desperate for sanctions relief, this doesn’t seem likely. Oh, and I can’t help myself, I thought the Supreme Leader banned nuclear weapons development?

That’s what scares me the most as an Iranian. Iran being fed fighter jets and missile defence systems by the Russians and Chinese.

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