A week ago, Politico reported the thing that Democrats fear, dread, and hate more than anything else in the world — the grim possibility that America might succeed and enjoy prosperity again.
In early April, Jason Furman, a top economist in the Obama administration and now a professor at Harvard, was speaking via Zoom to a large bipartisan group of top officials from both parties. The economy had just been shut down, unemployment was spiking and some policymakers were predicting an era worse than the Great Depression. The economic carnage seemed likely to doom President Donald Trump’s chances at reelection.
Furman, tapped to give the opening presentation, looked into his screen of poorly lit boxes of frightened wonks and made a startling claim.
“We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country,” he said.
The former Cabinet secretaries and Federal Reserve chairs in the Zoom boxes were confused, though some of the Republicans may have been newly relieved and some of the Democrats suddenly concerned.
“Everyone looked puzzled and thought I had misspoken,” Furman said in an interview. Instead of forecasting a prolonged Depression-level economic catastrophe, Furman laid out a detailed case for why the months preceding the November election could offer Trump the chance to brag — truthfully — about the most explosive monthly employment numbers and gross domestic product growth ever.
…Furman’s counterintuitive pitch has caused some Democrats, especially Obama alumni, around Washington to panic. “This is my big worry,” said a former Obama White House official who is still close to the former president. Asked about the level of concern among top party officials, he said, “It’s high– high, high, high, high.”
Well, Democrats: Brace for some bad news.
The New York Times and Politico were already warming up, putting out tweets predicting doom.
Welcome to jobs day. t’s going to be another terrible one but perhaps not as terrible as many previously feared. Consensus is for a loss of 7.8 million jobs in May and a jump in the unemployment rate to 19.5 percent. https://t.co/T1nrxYYEaY
— POLITICO (@politico) June 5, 2020
(Hit the link to see the Enemy of the People Tokyo Rose Times similarly masturbating itself over the prospect of further American suffering.)
Well, instead of skyrocking up to the Great Depression level of 20%, May instead saw the greatest one month increase in job creation since at least 1939 — and possibly in all of history.
Update: Contrary to predictions, the unemployment rate falls from 14.7 to 13.3 percent in May as Trump pushes to reopen the economy https://t.co/cLgrP7LTRK
— POLITICO (@politico) June 5, 2020
Furman had warned Democrats about the Good News (bad news for them) coming, which is that this was not a normal recession, in which job losses are due to structural and inherent problems of the economy which must be worked out — sometimes over years — before full recovery can happen.
No, this current recession was like the brief recessions seen after a hurricane — yes, for the duration of the storm and the aftermath, there is a sharp sudden drop in economic activity.
But then, because the economy is fundamentally good except for that temporary setback, the economy rebounds. This is the V-shape recovery Trump (and others) have predicted — yes, it’s a sharp drop down, but then it’s a sharp zoom back upwards afterwards.
Matt Whitlock dryly notes that the Washington Post’s twitter feed is “like a rollercoaster” as they prayed for American disaster and were crushed to witness American success.
The Washington Post twitter feed is a real rollercoaster right now. pic.twitter.com/fQa7da3kQb
— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) June 5, 2020
Trump was dignified and restrained in his gloating and mockery of the left’s doomsayers.
CNBC reported that the May gain of 2.5 million jobs “was by far the biggest one-month jobs gain in U.S. history since at least 1939.”
“THESE NUMBERS ARE INCREDIBLE!” President Donald Trump tweeted.
…”Barring a second surge of Covid-19, the overall U.S. economy may have turned a corner, as evidenced by the surprise job gains today, even though it still remains to be seen exactly what the new normal will look like,” Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Bank, told Fox Business…
“It’s a stupendous number. It’s joyous, let’s call it like it is. The Market was right. It’s stunning!” Trump tweeted, tagging CNBC’s Jim Cramer. It was unclear as to whether or not the president was quoting Cramer.
V for Victory, baby.
Paul Krugman was so butthurt, ass-mad, and sphincter-peeved by the Unexpectedly Great news that he begin sputtering out conspiracy theories that Trump faked the numbers, or forced people to fake the numbers.Hey, remember when the establishment media (of both right and left varieties) used to use the smear “Conspiracy theory!” to shut down all speculations and reportage that harmed their narrative?
Boy, they sure seem to have embraced the power of conspiracy theories now.
The stock market (specifically, the DOW) is already 47 points ABOVE its Trump years’ low, during the Coronavirus shutdown.
That was in March, this is only early June.
One of the very fastest recession recoveries EVER!
Very good news, but there’s still a long way to go. A lot of these jobs are not full employment, so we need to grow and grow.
Still awesome, but I’d like the see Conservatives/Republicans act like adults and avoid the Dem/Left temptation of using this as a political weapon.
There is much to do, retake the manufacturing taken over by China, drugs to engines on lawn mowers. Get them out of our stock market or make them play by our well enforced rules. Protect our technology, now that we are back into the space race.
Increase computer security everywhere. You cant avoid buying from China unless you research the company, they have bought many thousands of companies and gutted the companies that used to make things to ghosts. They have done this in country after country. No sewing machines are made in the USA, not even old iconic Singer.
While I man not an economist by education, part of my doctorate studies concerned the effects leadership had upon economic health of a country. Of course, many of the professors were presenting the importance of globalization while the US needed to get out of manufacturing a resort to “adding value” to products produced by other countries. Out of our cohort of 30 doctoral candidates, there were 6 who provided the opposite view during discussions and in essays. Our primary argument was “what is to prevent manufacturing companies from eliminating the US value adding and perform that task themselves”? We were right. Look at how the internet and the marketing by manufacturing companies directly to consumers. The power has shifted to those companies and countries who actually make a product instead of increase the value through marketing.
President Trump recognized this a long time ago. When the US had to rely upon our products being manufactured in foreign countries, the US is held hostage. Others control the health of our economy. In a few short years enlisting the capabilities of highly effective and knowledgeable experts, President Trump put in place criteria that has the potential to keep the US economy rolling no mater the attacks. There is much to laud about the economy of a country that can provide for the needs of its citizens. President Trump has initiated that. Imagine what he can do as a lame duck president during the next 4 years to improve all of our lives!
@Nathan Blue: All that needs to be weaponized is the left’s obvious and open desire for the economy to crash and their various attempts to accomplish that fete, including armed insurrection.
This is a perfect example of why so many polls are worthless. Ignorant people are polled. A recent poll on who would handle the economy best showed very little difference between Trump, who just months ago before COVID19, had a roaring economy and China on the rope and Biden, who pledges to destroy the coal, LPNG, oil industries and the manufacturing the Trump has brought back. The contrasts could not be more stark. But, watch; with the economy recovering, the next poll will show resounding support for Trump again.
Unless he Democrats can execute another plan to destroy the economy, Biden is toast.
July 2, 2020 – Trump says Biden as president could lead to next Great Depression
Is Trump consulting his Magic 8-Ball, or is he just going by the godawful mess his own incompetence has already got well underway?
If elected, Biden will be inheriting an even worse disaster than Obama found waiting for him at the beginning of 2009, with most tools normally used to deal with a crashing economy already tapped out: tax cuts won’t be possible, because we’re already dealing with a projected deficit of nearly $4 TRILLION; interest rates can’t be lowered, because they were already pushed to rock bottom to juice Trump’s economic binge; China sure as hell won’t be loaning us any money, as Trump has turned them into Public Enemy No. 1; COVID-19 may still be a major problem, as we’ve failed to bring the spread under control, unlike most other advanced nations. Nor will it be possible to just crank up the printing presses. We’ve already done that, too, and making a habit of it could turn our currency into Monopoly money.
Biden had nothing to do with any of the foregoing. The man warning us about Biden had a great deal to do with every bit of it. Unfortunately, I haven’t heard of any brilliant solutions being floated by anybody.
@Greg: It doesn’t take Nostradamus to see that Biden’s economic plans would KILL the economy.
@Greg:
Just put a bag over your head and hide in your hobbit hole. Everything is doom and gloom with you every day.
We don’t share in your misery.
@retire05, #8:
Donald’s very important endorsement. (Don’t blame Democrats. This is the latest from Republican patriots who want their party back.)
@Greg: Keep telling yourself Trump has no support, the economy means nothing, 90% drop in kungflu deaths means nothing, The CDC just changed another tune the virus cant spread easily from surfaces, like looted items?
Defund the police should be China Bidens campaign slogan.
Who said he had no support? He’s had the unwavering support of Vladimir Putin since early 2016.
Очень важное одобрение для Дональда Трампа!
@Greg: You are a pathetic sick puppy commrade Greggie.
There are many who would vote for a potato before Biden.
@Greg:
Odd, seems like I heard the voice used for the voiceover somewhere else. Let me see……………….oh, yeah, it sounds just like the voice on the “Russian” phone call with Adam Schiff. You know, the “naked pictures of Trump” conversation?
Apparently you think the Russians, Putin in particular, are as stupid as the left in America is. They’re not, and neither is he. He knows:
a) with all the anti-Russia crap the left is now pushing out there (while they ignore the real danger, China) if he says he supports Trump he gets stupid Americans to vote for Biden
b) if Biden is elected, he gets Obama Part Deux when it comes to Russia. Remember, Obama was told the Russians were interfering in the 2016 election and he did NOTHING about it
And you, and people like you, are so damn stupid you don’t even understand when you are being played like a cheap fiddle.
@kitt, #12:
Hey, it was Trump organization figures who secretly cozied up to known Russian Federation actors. At least eighteen Trump organization representatives had documented contacts with Putin intermediaries during the 2016 presidential campaign and transition period.
TRUMP’S RUSSIA COVER-UP BY THE NUMBERS – 272 CONTACTS WITH RUSSIA-LINKED OPERATIVES
Lincoln Project republicans clearly haven’t forgotten.
@Greg:
Fortunately, not all on the left has fallen for the b/s being put out by the establishment deep staters of the Lincoln Project. Only the dumb, like you Comrade Greggie, are willing to buy snake oil from them.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/tactics-lincoln-project/613636/
@Greg:
Have they documented the same for the Clinton campaign, transition yup its everyones job to get acquainted.
Set up the new agenda of the new executive.
Perfectly Normal, perfectly legal.
@Greg: I don’t remember Trump telling Putin, when he thought no one would ever know, that as soon as he got his next election behind him, he would to to work doing everything Putin wanted him to do, like Obama did.
Rick Wilson and his “Lincoln Project” suffers racial exposure.
https://thepoliticalinsider.com/live-by-the-sword-die-by-it-the-delicious-downfall-of-rick-wilson/
Nice racist group you follow.
@Greg The Moscow Project is an initiative of the Center for American Progress Action Fund dedicated to creating false narratives about President Trump. It produces knowingly false information fed to victims of trump derangement syndrome.
July 30, 2020 – US economy posts its worst drop on record
Our failure to address the underlying cause with a rational and coordinated national response has set us up for more of the same. We should have stuck with the lock down a little while longer, as that was clearly having the predicted results. We then should have cautiously reopened with clear national guidelines in place.
We can’t even manage a national mask mandate.
Why did they not report the number for the 2nd quarter of -9.5%?
@July 4th American, #20:
They’re reporting the annualized rate, which expresses what a continuation of the annual trend thus far would result in for the entire year. That’s explained in the following paragraph from the article:
There’s an extended graph in NYT article today that goes back as far as 1950.
@Greg: So, the economy should not have been closed? For all the pain and suffering caused by closing the economy to satisfy “science”, your petulant swarms of crybabies erased any advantage gained.
Democrats opposed every effort made to prevent the spread of the virus, only changing their position when their stupidity was abundantly clear.
Imagine if we had begun with the pathetic economy of Obama? Luckily, Trump’s economy was roaring and strong and, as soon as the economy reopens (either ignore the ongoing left wing riots or crush them and open the economy), it will bounce right back. What has been proven is that Democrats know nothing about how to face a crisis, run an economy or do anything but obstruct and destroy.
@Deplorable Me, #22:
The economy should have remained locked down for a few weeks longer, and then reopened with national COVID-19 guidelines in place. We have lost the rapid progress we had made against the pandemic by not sticking with the protocol for a while longer.
Obama took office with an economic train wreck in progress. He left office two years later on the 75th consecutive month of job growth. There had also been a dramatic reduction in annual deficits.
@Greg: It was fine to open the economy when they did; it was the riots that destroyed any gain achieved.
I know you really like that meme, but the locations of the COVID-19 surges don’t actually coincide with the locations where the protests have taken place.
Reopening the economy prematurely was probably the worst thing we could have done to promote its recovery.
Pushing kids back into their classrooms too early may also turn into a disaster.
Efforts to block voting by mail could turn into strike three. The last thing we need is for over a 100 million people of voting age to be forced together into crowded polling places on election day.
@Greg: The people in the riots don’t live where they are rioting, either. So, what happens when they go back to mommy’s house?
Also funny that their beloved John Lewis has begged for them to stop rioting and using violence as their primary means of expression, but they really don’t give a shit what he preached because NONE of this is about black lives, social justice or reform.
Herman Cain has passed away. May he rest in peace.
The official count of U.S. COVID-19 fatalities is now 151,650.