Posted by Curt on 25 August, 2023 at 7:41 am. 5 comments already!


by MoA

According to the above Senior Fellow @FPRI Rob Lee the Ukrainian army has used 10+ brigades, some 20 to 35,000 men, to take (not confirmed) Robotyne. A town which, according to the 2001 census, had 480 inhabitants.

So much winning …

How many of such victories can the Ukraine sustain?

Correct assessment, wrong conclusion:

U.S., Ukraine Clash Over Counteroffensive Strategy (archived) – WSJ, Aug 24 2023
Kyiv’s forces can still break through Russia defenses, but time is running out, Washington officials say

“You don’t understand the nature of this conflict,” Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, the Ukrainian commander, responded in one interaction with the Americans, a U.S. official recounted. “This is not counterinsurgency. This is Kursk,” the commander added, referring to the major World War II battle between Germany and the Soviet Union.

The Battle of Kursk was much larger than the Special Military Operation in Ukraine.


But there are similarities and Zaluzhny seems not to have recognized those in time to act appropriately.

Like the Ukrainian ‘spring counter-offensive’ the battle for Kursk was delayed to wait for the arrival of new weapons.

On 10 March, Manstein presented a plan whereby the German forces would pinch off the Kursk salient with a rapid offensive commencing as soon as the spring rasputitsa had subsided.

On 17–18 June, following a discussion in which the OKW Operations Staff suggested abandoning the offensive, Hitler further postponed the operation until 3 July. Finally, on 1 July, Hitler announced 5 July as the launch date of the offensive.

The Russians had used the delay to build their defenses.

The Central and Voronezh Fronts each constructed three main defensive belts in their sectors, with each subdivided into several zones of fortifications.

The Voronezh and Central Fronts dug 4,200 kilometres (2,600 mi) and 5,000 kilometres (3,100 mi) of trenches respectively, laid out in criss-cross pattern for ease of movement. The Soviets built more than 686 bridges and about 2,000 kilometres (1,200 mi) of roads in the salient. Red Army combat engineers laid 503,663 anti-tank mines and 439,348 anti-personnel mines, with the highest concentration in the first main defensive belt. The minefields at Kursk achieved densities of 1,700 anti-personnel and 1,500 anti-tank mines per kilometre, about four times the density used in the defence of Moscow.

Here are the current defense lines:


The Germans did quite well during their attack as the southern group nearly broke through the 3rd Soviet defense line. However, the northern group was by then on the verge of being surrounded and strategic developments required to stem the losses.

After having halted the German advances the Russians finally launched their own offensive.

Hitler cancelled the offensive at Kursk after only a week, in part to divert forces to Italy. Germany’s extensive losses of men and tanks ensured that the victorious Soviet Red Army enjoyed the strategic initiative for the remainder of the war. The Battle of Kursk was the first time in the Second World War that a German strategic offensive was halted before it could break through enemy defences and penetrate to its strategic depths. Though the Red Army had succeeded in winter offensives previously, their counter-offensives after the German attack at Kursk were their first successful summer offensives of the war.

Recognizing a Kursk like trap the Ukrainian forces should have opted for a defensive posture. But, pushed by the U.S., they made the same mistake the Germans made in their attack on Kursk.

We may now finally see the other side ready to make its move:

Putin says Russia has not ‘started anything in earnest’ with regard to its war with Ukraine – AP, July 8 2022

Speaking at a meeting with leaders of the Kremlin-controlled parliament, Putin accused Western allies of fueling the hostilities, charging that “the West wants to fight us until the last Ukrainian.”“It’s a tragedy for the Ukrainian people, but it looks like it’s heading in that direction,” he added.

“Everybody should know that largely speaking, we haven’t even yet started anything in earnest,” Putin said in a menacing note.

After talk with Putin, Zaporozhye head says ‘interesting’ developments expected this fall – TASS, Aug 24 2023

The acting head of the Zaporozhye Region, Yevgeny Balitsky, said after a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday that he expected ‘lots of interesting’ developments to take place in the special operation zone this fall.”After a conversation with the president, I can say that <…> I received a proof of his remark that we haven’t begun anything yet. And there will be lots of interesting [developments] this fall,” he told the Rossiya-24 television channel.

In current western culture, the ‘good’ will always win. But life is not about ‘good’ versus ‘bad’:

Notes on Stormtrooper Syndrome – Ecosophia:

Popular entertainment in Western industrial nations today is as thickly larded with moral posturing as anything Victorian parents inflicted on their children. In most popular genres, the Good People always win, and the Bad People always lose. Oh, there’s often a Good Person who dies heroically so the other Good People can emote on camera, and there’s often a Bad Person who turns out to have a heart of gold, but the basic principle remains: Good People win because they’re good, Bad People lose because they’re baaaaad.

There’s no shortage of examples of Stormtrooper Syndrome these days, but I’m going to focus on the most important of the lot, the one that bids fair to transform the world’s political and economic landscape in the years immediately ahead. Yes, we need to talk about Ukraine.That emphatically does not mean we need to talk about who gets to claim the roles of Good People and Bad People in the Russo-Ukrainian war. May I whisper an unwelcome truth in your ear, dear reader? The outcome of this war does not depend on which side is morally better than the other. In the real world, in terms of military victory and defeat, who’s right and who’s wrong don’t matter two weak farts in a Cat-5 hurricane once the cannon start to roar.

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