Two Statistical Curiosities That Allowed Biden To Pull Ahead In PA

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by BRIGGS

A brief note. I’ve been asked to examine the Pennsylvania votes. That work is ongoing. Update See below for a serious critique of Benford’s law.

I’m showing here (with permission) the one analysis I found most curious.

This is official county-level timed voting data that started at 2020-11-04 11:00:00, a day after the election, to 2020-11-07 11:29:00 which is Saturday night. That is, these are all late vote counts. They start, county by county, where the vote left off on election night.



This is a picture of the running totals by the time the votes were added, summed across all counties, during those time periods. They do not start at 0, but at the totals given after election night.


 
The early gains for Biden are from, mainly, Philadelphia, Allegheny, Montgomery, Chester and Berks counties. A simple plot (click to see: it’s large) shows the size of vote additions for both candidates, when new vote totals (greater than 0) were added by county (and not all counties added votes after election day).

All goes well for Trump until 2020-11-04 21:15:00 when he loses just under 10,000 votes, but curiously from three different counties simultaneously: -1,063 Allegheny; -2,972 Bucks; -7,135 Chester. Biden never lost any votes (at least, in this late voting).

Understand that this does not mean the decreases happened at this time, but that they were recorded in the official data as happening at that time. And the same is true for our next observation.

Biden’s next curiosity was the big increase of 27,396 votes at 2020-11-06 08:53:00 over one consecutive reporting period. This bump is just like the blue-red F-memes you have seen: this only seems more spread out because of the finer time scale used.

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I’m skeptical of what I’m seeing in other analyses, because if somebody turns something up with Benford, it implies that many, many vote totals were tampered with, which increases the possibilities of getting caught. And you don’t need to tamper with many. Only a few.

We have a herd mentality willing to do ANYTHING to get Biden in office (or, conversely, Trump OUT of office). While there could have been a predetermined time to begin the cheat, it may not have been a well-organized effort. That would require a lot of people discussing criminal activities with lots of other people, which isn’t how wise criminal enterprises work. So, this left a lot of people up to their own devises and while some are clever, devious and careful, some are not.

This doesn’t look smooth and logical because it was carried out by a swarm of over-zealous liberal criminals that think no matter what they do serving the liberal cause, they will be protected. Of course, no one in liberal leadership will pursue them.

But someone might. Now it’s a race against time.