Bottom Line Up Front:
• On June 2, the U.S. State Department released its 2015 Country Reports on Terrorism, including an estimated strength for al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) at up to 4,000 members
• The previous four Country Report estimates on AQAP numbers ranged from ‘several hundred’ in 2010 to ‘approximately one thousand’ in 2014
• The quadrupling of the estimated size of AQAP is a direct result of the years of political vacuums and military campaigns that have brought ruin to Yemen
• Photographs of a massive AQAP gathering in Mukallah in March, along with the group’s gains in the conflict, suggest that even the new estimate is likely too low.
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One of the more consequential details in the U.S. State Department’s Country Reports on Terrorism for 2015, released on June 2, received very little notice. The estimated strength of the group long-described by the U.S. government as the most capable and worrisome al-Qaeda affiliate has quadrupled since the last report. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has swollen in size and made enormous financial gains since Yemen’s political crisis turned into the ongoing war in March 2015.
The 2015 Country Report posits that AQAP had 4,000 members as of last year. The estimated AQAP strength in the 2014 report was approximately 1,000 members, as in the 2013 and 2012 reports. The first year the group was listed in the annual report was 2010, when it was said to have ‘several hundred’ members. The 2011 report said AQAP had ‘a few thousand members,’ and attributed the growth to the chaotic Arab Spring demonstrations in Yemen and the government’s suppression of resistance.
Read the rest from The Soufan Group
Look at Obama fighting him some terrorism and crippling al Qaeda!! You go, girl!!
Lets not forget, Obama cited Yemen as a success story and a model. So wonder why we have lost significant ground in GWOT since January, 2009. But hey, just claim we are no longer at war with Radical Islam and the problem goes away.
@another vet: Rolling over on our backs with our tail tucked between our legs has not worked very well.
@another vet @Bill –
Setting aside the political lens filter for a moment, Yemen has always been the land of AQ true-believers. Without getting too specific, this particular “report” by the Soufan Group does not reveal anything new, or that much has changed during the intervening years. In the border areas between Yemen and SA, the rugged terrain has permitted AQ to move freely between the two countries. While you may draw a bead on their cross-border movements, they are notorious for suddenly changing their routes. Bottom line: AQ is a thinking and very adaptive enemy. The other part is that these “badlands” are the ancestral roots of UBL. He will always be revered in these parts, probably more in death than when he was hiding out in Pakistan. Last point, the Yemeni government has had very little sway in the border areas with SA, and this includes when there was a divided Yemen. The same can be said for SA as well. As such, there has been considerable reluctance into this area and pursue AQ.
Typo correction in last sentence. Should read:
As such, there has been considerable reluctance to enter into the border areas and pursue AQ.
@David:
Yes they are and they, like ISIS, they remain at least a few steps ahead of us all the time. The fact that AQ has quadrupled its membership should cause alarm. I was afraid this was going to happen after the ill placed euphoria after the SEALs took out OBL. Too many people thought the war was all about him. A narrow minded and ill-placed view to be sure which demonstrates a total lack of understanding the enemy.
@another vet # 6 –
In real time, Yemen being the land of AQ true-believers dates back to before the Gulf War/Somalia time frame. As true-believers, they have a completely different mindset compared to the other AQ branches – much more dangerous. Can’t say too much more on an open board.
Pretending to fight terrorism while you allow terrorist groups to expand and help their recruiting efforts by projecting total weakness does not help.
@David: Unfortunately it isn’t just Yemen they’re making headway in. As we talked about before, Al-Zawahiri laid out their plan in the 2009 time frame in his interview with the Arab press, and they’ve followed it pretty closely and almost unchecked. The only big unexpected has been ISIS.