The health “experts” and the media propagating viral panic porn think people like us don’t understand arithmetic. They think they can manipulate headline stories warning of increased cases of COVID-19 in order to push more lockdowns, ignoring all the ways that more cases are being discovered, while the percentage of positive tests, new hospitalizations and deaths, and the lethality of the virus are all waning significantly.
“Arizona’s COVID-19 spread is ‘alarming’ and action is needed, experts warn,” read the title of an Arizona Republic article on Wednesday. Yahoo News breathlessly warned about a “spike” in all the southwestern states.
As is always the case, there is a grain of truth that is hugely distorted by numerous obfuscations of important facts and context. The truth is that new hospitalizations of people coming in for serious coronavirus infections are actually extremely low. What they are actually counting are the extra people coming in for all of the delayed health care caused by the lockdown. But thanks to universal testing in hospitals, they are discovering more asymptomatic cases than ever before, which had nothing to do with the original purpose of the hospital stay. Thus, they are blaming the fallout of the lockdown on the easing of the lockdown!
This chart from Arizona’s coronavirus dashboard says it all.
Check out what happens in Arizona when you do a 7d rolling aver of hospitalization to case rate (using a 7-day lag), in Red, overlaid with 7d ave pct of cases to tests, Blue. Hospitalizations cut off June 6 (correspond to May 31). See how the rate goes way down with new tests. pic.twitter.com/DHSjKc8CcY
— Kyle Lamb (@kylamb8) June 10, 2020
As you can see, if you break down the new admissions by date of admission, as this chart does, the numbers are actually near zero over the past week. There was only one new admission on Wednesday, the last day of reporting. What the media is focusing on is the cumulative total of beds in use, reflected in this chart.
The total number of “positive” COVID-19 patients currently using beds in the hospital system is high. Now you might wonder how cumulative numbers could be so high if the new daily intake is so low? It’s quite obvious that the first chart is only counting those who actually come in with new serious cases of COVID-19, for example those who have trouble breathing because the virus attacked their lungs. Those cases are extremely low relative to April.
The cumulative number chart, on the other hand, counts any “positive or suspected inpatient COVID-19 patients.” Now that the number of people coming into hospitals in general, for any reason, is much higher than during the peak of the epidemic and also testing has become standard, they are likely counting anyone who tests positive as a COVID-19 patient in that chart, even if they came in for chest pains or trauma. Which is why there is a note at the bottom of the chart observing that the numbers are very volatile. Obviously, if the same number of patients of all conditions had come in to hospitals six weeks ago and we had had the rapid testing capabilities, the number of positive cases would have been recorded as even higher than they are today.
This dichotomy is likely reflected in the following chart of COVID-positive patients admitted to the emergency rooms.
How can it be that the same government website showing literally no more than five new COVID-19 admissions a day this week also shows record emergency room COVID-positive patients? The answer is that the virus is much more widespread, asymptomatic, and less deadly than it was before. The ER patients are coming in, as the Arizona state health director, Dr. Cara Christ, said, because of the bottleneck of much-needed care and serious ailments that were ignored during the lockdown. All but the few who actually came to the ER because of COVID-19 symptoms likely never knew they had it. This is why we are not seeing a big spike of deaths in any of the states where the media is warning about an increase in detected cases.
The very states that are seeing increases in hospitalizations are the ones that barely had patients – COVID-19 or otherwise – for six weeks because the virus didn’t hit hard but the panic and suspension of certain procedures caused the admissions to plummet (unlike in New York, for example, where there were enough COVID-19 patients to fill hospitals). Now that the lockdown is over, states like Texas, Arizona, California, and North Carolina have many more people coming in to hospitals than in April. Paradoxically, it makes sense that there will be more people testing positive now than even during the peak, especially because testing is universal and rapid.
It’s hard to measure a curve when we didn’t have the full data during its peak. Had we been testing every person in March and April, there likely would have been many more cases.
Hence, the dichotomy between those “hospitalized with COVID-19” and those hospitalized because of COVID-19 is very similar to the inflation of the death toll we’ve seen, where the number of those who die with COVID-19 but not because of it get conflated with those who die of the virus itself.
The same trend we see in Arizona is playing out in Texas and likely in other states that had both low COVID-19 numbers and very few general patients in hospitals during the peak of the epidemic.
Thus, the dichotomy between patients who are actually being driven to the hospital by the virus vs. those who are there for other purposes and just test positive is huge and did not exist during the peak.
It’s not that the virus doesn’t exist any more, it’s that it has either become less potent, has already attacked those who would otherwise get seriously ill from it, or a mixture of both. This is why Dr. Donald Yealy, the chair of emergency medicine at UPMC, who’s been responsible for 30,000 tests in Pennsylvania, recently observed that those with the virus appear to be carrying lower viral loads and aren’t getting as sick from it as they did in March and April.
@retire05: Its the transparent old tired socialist mindset, so predictable. I do find it amusing he thinks garden dirt and cat snuggling is equal to occasional social contact in exercising his immune system, he must have learned that from his boob tube legacy media.
That would be up to the court to decide, donchathink?
We have laws because people don’t behave themselves without them.
Retire05 believes her representative government is constitutional right up to when it does something she isn’t happy with, and then that representative government is a dictatorship.
Too bad she isn’t happy with the Bostick decision, because it is now the law.
Now whacha gonna do?
Not the same thing for sure. But would you so glibly partake of your precious social contact in the midst of the Bubonic Plague, or Ebola? Would you share needles with intravenous drug addicts just to give your immune system a boost?
Maybe you are a young-dumb-and-full-of-cum kid with a healthy immune system who doesn’t give a rat’s ass about killing Grandma, but I’m not. I’m 70, with an immune malfunction that makes me type-1 diabetic, plus persistent hypertension and chronic arrhythmia, so if I get COVID-19, I’m in the 50% mortality group, not the 1%. Add to that the fact that I am my 93-year-old mother’s sole caregiver, and if you can’t conclude that in my case, coronavirus risk-taking is a bad idea, well, you haven’t got your head screwed on right.
You are welcome to get your medical advice from a real estate shyster, but I’ll take mine from a real doctor, thank you very much.
Did I use that phrase?
Perhaps you are referring to how various hate groups (surely you would agree that the KKK qualifies under that label) have long justified their discriminatory practices by citing scriptural references (usually found in the Old Testament) that make no bones about how certain groups of people should be punished for what were considered crimes back in the Bronze Age. (Not always a good guideline for modern behavior.) You may certainly question whether or not the Bible’s ancient proscriptions apply today – and the Catholic Church has generated a whole litany of qualifications to excuse them from following Deuteronomy to the letter – but you cannot dispute that various hate groups have used those scriptures to justify their mischief.
@George Wells: Funny I never told you to take a risk, or anyone else. You are an adult make your own decisions and allow others to make their own. Our businesses here are open and even with massive testing the numbers are remaining low. I certainly want to visit with my grand kids and other family, yes I will take that chance. When I need something I will go shop for it. I certainly dont expect the world to stop if I have a health issue. The latest group setting off spikes are the youngsters who are doing what we used to do when we were young, it isnt hospitalizing many them. So the goal of not overwhelming our healthcare system has been met.
No one should expect a hazard free life, it never has been one before.
If you could show me where the real estate shyster, as you call him, has given medical advice, I bet you cant its all in your head Georgie, its all in your head.
Yes you used that phrase, I see along with your poor health you have memory issues.
Your demons are in your head as well, most here are conservative or republican, the KKK is not part of our history. Just because you do not understand a religions tenents you can make them up in your head that doesnt make it fact. Isee you left out the “religion” that tosses people like you off buildings still today, but demonize those that dont, you aint to sharp dude.
No doubt on the advice of his lawyers, Trump repeatedly points out that he isn’t a doctor, but then says of people infected with COVID-19 “I want them to take it,” referring to hydroxychloroquine, and “They should take it. What do they have to lose?” That pretty much constitutes advice on a medical subject, even if it isn’t coming from a medical practitioner.
And why do you keep trying to bring Islam into this? I already have Retire05 AND YOU complaining about my making posts too complicated. And no, Im NOT complaining about Christianity, I’m complaining about hate groups who USE Christian doctrine to excuse THEIR crimes. Can you not understand that difference?
@George Wells: I just stated the obvious, you continue to drag Christianty into the subject in a negative light ignoring what is going on today in the ME.
You just aint to sharp. I admit there are those that twist scripture, Part of the reason there are so many different protestant brands even the Catholic faith has splits. I have no idea how the current Pope made the cut. Churches have serious politics just read a couple of Father Malachi Martins books, even with that the politics and radicals dont change the true faith. Just like pedophiles wanting to push into the LGBT movement doesnt make you a pedo, or make me think you would believe thats ok.
So as you should see a part of a group can have ridiculous beliefs you shouldnt paint them all the same.
That bad people use and abuse Christian doctrine to justify their own mischief does not reflect badly on Christianity, so I don’t know why you are accusing me of attacking it. For as much no-longer-valid ideas as one may find in the Old Testament, the entire Good Book’s message is way more good than bad, and as it was written by men (inspired by God or not) one cannot hope for it to be perfect. The evil done in the name of God doesn’t issue forth from the pages of scripture, it is done by the hands of mortal men and women who subvert its message to associate legitimacy with what they do. To a greater or lesser extent, all religions are plagued with followers who do this. (There. That covers Islam.) And while every religion has this problem, not all adherents are part of that problem, so no, I don’t paint them all the same color.
But thanks for continuing to insult my intelligence. If you didn’t, I would doubt that you were a true FA Republican.
The REPUBLICAN Governor of Texas is now asking Texans to stay home, as the number of COVID-19 cases spikes to 5-times the daily number when the state “opened” itself up to biologically dangerous behaviors. He says that the spread of the virus in Texas is now intolerable. Imagine that! And the Florida Governor is doing everything he can to hide how bad his state has become ahead of beach-happy 4th-of-July, hoping that most of the casualties will be tourists from OTHER states. Tsk-Tsk!
Mindless Republican rats will keep following the example of their orange-haired pied piper as he leads them over the precipice, while himself caught in a death-spiral of profound indecision and aimless anger. And watch as the deaths spike three weeks after the case numbers soar. The Grim Reaper must be working overtime to keep up with all the Republicans who played Russian Roulette with their lives and lost. Pity they won’t be able to vote by mail ahead of the November election….
Georgie the media freaked out over beaches, but those opened nearly 2 months ago. Re-opening began in early May. Neither of those can be correlated to the recent spike (over last week).
Compare numbers with your Media Dem heros of the virus?
For comparison as of June 19th, death rates per 100K:
New York- 159
New Jersey- 145
% of nursing home residents killed:
Get a grip.
Seeing massive protests being sanctioned by pols and health officials led to a significant decrease in social distancing everywhere. Those germs are smart they dont infect those that destroy loot and burn, just beach joggers and those needing a haircut.
How mentally ill one must be to cheer infection of others because the politics are different.
@George Wells: I’m sure tens of thousands of irresponsible, screaming, spitting, crowding anarchists gathering, rioting, looting has nothing to do with increased cases. Neither, of course, does the increased number of testing. Yet, ICU’s are not overwhelmed and the death rate continues to drop.
@kitt: Apparently Oregon wants blacks to die. See page 3, line 6.
Get a grip?
The differences in death rates per age group over the past 4 months has everything to do with the demographic exposing itself wantonly. 4 months ago, old people were dropping like flies, and youngsters appeared practically immune. Thus the average age of the infected and of the dying sat above 60 years of age. Fast forward to a month ago. By then the old people – the ones most at risk from the virus – were aware of how much at risk they were, and they did everything they could to NOT die.
At the same time, the young folks who were luckily underexposed from the start have now thrown caution to the wind. They rushed to beaches and bars and parties and rallies, and surprise, surprise, their infection rates have exploded. No, they won’t ever die at the rate that older COVID-19 patients die, but their deaths will go up, as will the deaths among their elderly relatives. Y’all think that those deaths are an acceptable cost of doing business, but that “business” doesn’t require deaths, it only requires safe practices, something that apparently is a bridge too far to cross. Pity.
And no, I don’t cheer deaths, though they DO deposit a benefit in the accounts of the still living. No. I CHEER the collection of REAL data, collected HONESTLY and without bias for the purpose of influencing the behavior of unsuspecting customers, because without good date we will never have a clue, and thus will remain unprepared for the next time this happens.
As I explained, the death rate continues to drop because old people – the demographic that dies the most – isn’t going to beaches and bars and parties and rallies. They are still at home, or wearing masks. The ICU’s aren’t yet filled for the same reason. The virus doesn’t kill young people like it does the old. Yet the average ages of infection and death have dropped by half. What, you think the virus suddenly has taken a shine to pretty young faces? No. The pretty young faces couldn’t stand being hidden behind masks. BINGO!
And look at where the virus numbers are spiking. Is it in the states where BLM protesters have congregated, or is it the states where beach parties and rallies are bring held – states where the citizens have followed the president’s lead and abandoned safe social practices.
I won’t argue that protest marches conducted without the benefit of safe social practices will certainly contribute to the spread of the virus. That is not in dispute. But what IS in dispute is whether BLM protests are a bigger source of infection than people in Republican states abandoning those practices out of sympathy for their idiot president. As of right now, the states with the most dramatic growth of virus infection are not BLM-protesting states, they are GOP strongholds.
Connect the dots.
@George Wells: The protests were everywhere. They totally abrogated any benefit to the trillions of dollars the shutdown cost the nation. Since those continue (the political goals have not yet been achieved), any further shutdown is pointless. In fact, shutting down businesses only makes them targets for looting.
@George Wells: This is sick man
No death benefits me at all. The young that are coming up positive will by the data and science information recover or not suffer at all.
Massive amounts of testing will increase numbers positive of a germ we already know is highly contagious. The youth are doing what we did when we were young, perfectly natural things. They are living their lives, having fun, socializing and falling in love so they can continue the species.I hope they do exactly what the BLM marxists do not want them to do. Marry and raise happy normal children, work to obtain the American dream. Being independent of government handouts, that is what actually benefits my accounts as I wont be taxed to support single, angry, lazy losers.
You are sick in the head have been convinced that people must all behave as you have been told they should. Sit alone in tiny apts, watching netflix waiting for another stimulus check to spend on cheap china crap sold on Amazon. How long George, when should it end. Did you hear of Fauchis testimony when asked why he lied about masks? The arrogant lying bastards first comment “Oh so this is the game we are playing?”
No Fauchi we are trying to determine what fucking insane game you have been playing you lying bastard!
How exactly are people suppose to react when lied to by “experts” by “doctors”?
Correct me if I’m wrong on this, but didn’t the looting happen AFTER the protest crowds had begun disbursing… well AFTER dark, well AFTER businesses like retail sporting goods had long been closed? All of the looting footage I saw was taken at night. Did you see something different?
Or are you suggesting that businesses @kitt: stay open around the clock?
Not sure if you’ve been in a cave the last month but a few seconds of web searches is all it takes
Broad daylight looting was taking place countrywide.
When an old person dies, their Social Security payments cease and Medicare stops subsidizing their medical costs. Even if they were receiving no other social safety net support, those first two benefits amount to several thousand dollars every month PER SENIOR, and the termination of those payments benefits every living citizen of the United States. Why else would Trump and company be so eager to cut those programs , if they did not cost the country dearly.
True that a small percentage of seniors continue to actually MAKE earned income after they reach retirement age, but most don’t. Most just slowly consume the wealth they managed to save, and while that does eventually return wealth to circulation, most seniors simply live out the definition of matter – that which occupies space and has mass.
So yes, Sweetie, every one of us who dies benefits every one of us who doesn’t. I would have thought you would have worked out that arithmetic by now.
Funny that you should find something “sick” about this, since this has been how things have operated for centuries. If you make a lot of money and then die suddenly – before you get a chance to live off your savings over a protracted period of RETIREMENT (meaning you’re not producing a drop of anything useful) – then your heirs get to inherit what those unused years of uselessness did not consume. Good for your heirs.
Re: Nighttime looting comments.
I stand corrected.
@George Wells: Sorry sicko you started your post with a laugh showing how terribly mentally ill you are.
The generation murdered in nursing homes paid for thier benefits out of every paycheck.
Laugh clown laugh.
Sicko Clown: If Social Security and Medicare money is OUR money, then why is Robber-Baron Trump trying to take it away?