In the coming months, you’re going to hear a lot of analysts repeating that “(at least) 34 House Republicans have announced they’re retiring or running for a different office,” and that “Democrats need to pick up just 24 seats to win back control of the House of Representatives.” That’s accurate as far as it goes. In addition, for the past three cycles, the midterm elections have gone badly for the president’s party.
But there’s an angle that isn’t getting nearly as much discussion: A significant number of those retiring House Republicans represent districts where the GOP traditionally wins, and about half of them are districts where the GOP candidate usually wins by a wide margin. A seat-by-seat analysis suggests that Democrats have only about 14 to 15 really good opportunities to pick up open seats — and that Republicans might snag some open seats from the Democrats, too.
Begin with all the appropriate caveats: Democrats have won some surprising state legislative races in 2017, and we live in an era where Dave Brat can beat Eric Cantor, so anything can happen. It’s early in the cycle, polling is rare to nonexistent, and GOP primaries still have to be held. A national wave can carry usually uncompetitive districts.
Here are all 34 seats where an incumbent Republican is retiring, with the likelihood of a GOP win in November rated as a “yes,” “no,” or “maybe.” If you start to get concerned, remember that most of the districts that are most worrisome for the GOP come earlier in the alphabet.
1. Arizona second district
2016 presidential election: +5 Clinton
2016 House election: +13.92 McSallyIncumbent Martha McSally is running for the U.S. Senate seat of the retiring Jeff Flake. She won narrowly here in 2014 and then won comfortably in 2016. This is the southeastern corner of the state, including roughly two-thirds of Tucson, and is a classic swing district where Hillary Clinton won 50 percent to 45 percent and Romney won narrowly four years earlier.
Are Republicans likely to keep the seat? Maybe.
2. Arizona eighth district
2016 presidential election: +21.1 Trump
2016 House election: +37.13 FranksIncumbent Trent Franks was the congressman who made those odd requests about surrogate motherhood to his staffers, and he resigned December 8. A primary for a special election will be held February 27 and a special general election will be held April 24. This district includes the northern and western suburbs of Phoenix, and it used to be Gabby Giffords’s seat under different district lines. Under the new lines, it’s considered reliably Republican. Franks never won less than 63 percent.
Are Republicans likely to keep the seat? Yes.
3. California 39th district
2016 presidential election: +8.6 Clinton
2016 House election: +14.46 RoyceEd Royce’s retirement is the one that really shook Republicans. This district, which includes parts of both Los Angeles and Orange counties, scores as perfectly even in the Cook Partisan Voting Index and is roughly one-third white, one-third Latino, and almost 30 percent Asian-American. Considering the accelerating Democratic advantage in the state and the state’s open-primary system, Republicans will face a steep uphill climb.
Are Republicans likely to keep the seat? No.
4. California 49th district
2016 presidential election: +7.5 Clinton
2016 House election: +0.52 IssaDarrell Issa’s was another retirement that unnerved Republicans. He won by a narrow margin in 2016 and represents the kind of California suburban district that is gradually drifting away from Republicans. It includes northern San Diego County and part of Orange County, and contains Camp Pendleton. This is one of those rare districts that preferred Romney in 2012 and flipped to Clinton in 2016.
Are Republicans likely to keep the seat? No.
5. Florida sixth district
2016 presidential election: +17 Trump
2016 House election: +17.2 DeSantisIncumbent Ron DeSantis is running for governor, but Republicans can feel fairly confident about this district, which includes the southern Jacksonville suburbs and the city of Daytona Beach. DeSantis contemplated a Senate bid in 2016, but withdrew from the race when Marco Rubio decided to run for reelection. DeSantis won comfortably.
Are Republicans likely to keep the seat? Yes.
6. Florida 27th district
2016 presidential election: +19.6 Clinton
2016 House election: +9.79 Ros-LehtinenBy some measures this is the Democrats’ best pick-up opportunity in the country, a district that includes a large part of the city of Miami as well as Miami Beach and Coral Gables. Clinton’s margin here was her best in any district that reelected a Republican incumbent. A Republican candidate with deep roots in the district’s Cuban-American community might have better odds, but Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the first Cuban-American and Latina elected to Congress, isn’t the kind of incumbent who is easy to replace.
Are Republicans likely to keep the seat? No.
7. Idaho first district
2016 presidential election: +38.3 Trump
2016 House election: +9.7 LabradorIncumbent Raul Labrador is running for governor of Idaho. Encompassing the eastern half of the state, this is deep-red territory; Republicans have held the seat for every year except two since the wave election of 1994. Democrat Walt Minnick won the district in 2008 and attempted to define himself as a conservative Democrat, but was swept out by Labrador.
Are Republicans likely to keep the seat? Yes.
8. Indiana fourth district
2016 presidential election: +34.1 Trump
2016 House election: +34 RokitaIncumbent Todd Rokita is running for Senate, hoping to face off against one of the cycle’s more vulnerable Democratic incumbents, Joe Donnelly. The district encompasses the northwestern chunk of the state and includes Crawfordsville, Lafayette, and some of the western Indianapolis suburbs. Republicans have held the seat since the 1994 elections.
Are Republicans likely to keep the seat? Yes.
They will need to earn it, those leaving need to pave the way. The amnesty for all illegals sweeping in every criminal into bill is unacceptable.