Political analysts billed the special House election as a definitive referendum on Donald Trump’s presidency. Democrats insisted that a young, moderate nominee would spark the imagination and enthusiasm of the “Resistance” in a previously safe GOP seat. Media outlets breathlessly covered the campaign on a moment-by-moment basis. The nation waited with bated breath as the returns came in.
I’m not talking about Tuesday’s special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district. I’m talking about last year’s special election in the Georgia district of former Rep. Tom Price, who had begun a short-lived stint as health secretary under President Trump a few months earlier.
Let’s assess how important that Georgia race really was: Can you recall the name of either candidate without googling it? Even if you do remember, let’s be honest and admit that no one seriously still holds up the Republican’s victory (or the Democrat’s narrow loss) as proving much of anything about the upcoming midterms.
The same should hold true for Tuesday’s outcome in the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district. Democrat Conor Lamb appears to have narrowly edged out Republican Rick Saccone in a district that went for Trump by 20 points, which certainly gives Republicans a headache they didn’t need and Democrats a reason to brag.
Does that translate to a blue wave in November, though? Almost certainly not. (Although that doesn’t mean a blue wave isn’t coming in November, either.) Using special elections as a harbinger for regularly scheduled contests ignores significant differences between the two, and the singular nature of most special elections.
Here are three key reasons to resist the urge to either pop champagne for Democrats or declare the GOP dead — at least on the basis of PA-18.
1. This district won’t even exist in November
The Pennsylvania state Supreme Court threw a wrench into the midterms last month, imposing a new congressional map on the legislature on the basis of partisan gerrymandering. The legal basis for this edict is still getting challenged, but if it stands, Republicans would lose several seats anyway — and PA-18 as it’s currently configured will no longer exist.
Both Saccone and Lamb may end up running in November in different districts, and both may win their races if they do. Forget the special election being predictive on a national basis; it may not even be predictive for Pennsylvania.
2. Special elections happen in a resource vacuum
Special elections allow parties to concentrate all their resources on one contest. In regular elections, it doesn’t work that way. Republicans and Democrats have to compete in 435 House races and 30-some Senate races every second November. They inevitably have to make tough decisions on resource allocations. That’s just not so in one-off special elections.
Heading into November, Republicans have a distinct edge in resources and infrastructure. The party committees dedicated to the Senate and House have remained competitive with each other, but the RNC has outperformed the DNC by a wide margin. The RNC has over $40 million cash-on-hand after setting a new record for off-year donations, while the DNC barely has enough cash (a little over $6 million) to cover its existing debt. The RNC has spent its money on expanding its ground operations in 25 key states for the midterms in a project that goes back to the 2014 cycle. Democrats are still struggling to rebuild the infrastructure that former President Barack Obama cannibalized for his 2012 campaign.
Republicans are coming into this cycle with a large organizational advantage and a lot more cash to operate it. That may not be enough to overcome any drag that Trump’s unpopularity creates, but it reminds us that Democrats may well be unable to match resources in a regular election in the way they did in a special election.
3. Candidates matter
Rick Saccone was a well-known Republican in this district, but he made some key mistakes, especially by highlighting the “right to work” message in a union-heavy constituency. However, the key point about candidates in this race was how different Conor Lamb is from mainstream Democratic Party messaging. Lamb refused to criticize Trump, for instance, declared his support for the Second Amendment, hailed the economic benefits of the tax cut (if not the cut itself), and distanced himself from Nancy Pelosi.
House Speaker Paul Ryan later joked that a conservative won the election in PA-18. He’s not that far off the mark.
No excuses get candidates that can run a race get the party cash behind them every seat counts.
The candidate needs to stick to National issues keep state politics out of the race.
The GOP needs to get its sh!t together, we lose against a dying party.
@kitt: All Congressional races will turn on LOCAL politics and attractive, likeable and trustworthy candidates–Former Marine Officer Lamb had it all
The DEMS have a winner in my home Cal district—Marine Col Doug Applegate–Trumpist Issa won’t run after MANY terms in office.
The Dems are not dying–they are attacking with Marine Officers leading the charge—OH RAH
@Rich Wheeler: If you look at the Farakhan style leadership the party is in its death throws or will need to split the Loons(Bernie) vs the left.
The only dems with an IQ lower than Mad Max are those that vote for her. Clinton has nothing better to do than hang one on and insult Americans. I heard she took a spill and fractured her wrist, possibly by saving her bottle from harm, her theft of the tacky tablecloth she wore in India as she stumbled down the stairs…classic. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5506823/Hillary-Clinton-fractures-wrist-slipping-bathtub.html Slipping or sipping? Her not making appearances, like the rustbelt?
@kitt: False flag Kitt—reality is the Dem Party is finding new leadership–see #2—They’ll bring down old man Trump and his ilk.
You, of all people, know a guy like DT can’t survive for long..
@Rich Wheeler: He was duly elected Dems need to rebuild after Obama and Clinton if all you run on is we will take your guns for our failures and take your president for our failures it is only going to drive anyone sane away from your party even with the slogan come on you sobs do you want to live forever.
What it shows is that if Democrats want to get back into the game anywhere but California, Illinois of New York, they need to jettison the Schumer/Pelosi/Warren/Sanders march towards socialism and find more moderate, cooperative candidates. In both Georgia and Pennsylvania Democrats ran a candidate that vowed to participate in government rather than scream at the sky wearing a pussy hat.
It also shows that Trump is very popular while not every Republican candidate necessarily is.
Note that Lamb is not the winner yet. The count is still very close and, this being Pennsylvania, Democrat fraud and cheating is a real, valid concern. There will be recounts and challenges. Remember the cheating found to have given Franken his victory which was discovered woefully late.
If Democrats continue to run moderate (i.e., not the insane, rabid, crybaby, butthurt, sore losers they have grown attached to) and if the candidates hold true to their campaign promises, it’s a win-win. We get a truly functioning government again, can have intelligent debates and compromises and the nation can move forward without having to shove the obstructive, anti-American liberals out of the way first. Of course, the dream of the liberal utopia of Venezuela-style socialism will be lost forever and, if they cooperate with Trump, his successes wil mount and Dem’s will lose further power, so don’t look for this recent intelligence-revealing trend to continue. Democrat leadership is far to stupid and socialistic to allow that to happen.
@kitt: Liberals must be so proud of the bitter, drunken harpie they continue to support. Luckily, there are no photos of his bathtub mishap. Maybe she stumbled on Huma.
@Bill… Deplorable Me: There was a photo of the large marble tub, the harpie would need a crane to get in or out in the physical condition she is in.
@Bill… Deplorable Me: “Trump is very popular” Based on what? Your say so? RCP has him at 42%
Cheating in PA election? Sounds like a sore loser.
Believe Dems will take House with guys like Lamb and Applegate– and lose Senate.
@Rich Wheeler: I dont know I heard some voting machines were out of calibration, no accusations of cheating, a very close race. There are absentee ballots to be counted.
How do you think the plans to raise taxes are going to work out for the dems?
@kitt: In past races, more votes than registered voters, the Democrats’ affinity for getting out the dead and illegal immigrant vote, “losing” absentee votes, etc, etc, etc. It is getting to the point in the United States that elections need to be “monitored” like they do in third world countries.
Of course, you would expect some crybaby liberal to be offended at anyone questioning an election result, right? Perhaps before the results are certified, we need to check into Russian influence, golden showers, did anyone anywhere talk to a Russian?
@Bill Burris: You’re no longer “deplorable?”–Good for you Bill.
Weren’t you the guy who said DT’S win shouldn’t be questioned by “cry baby sore losers.”