Posted by Curt on 22 September, 2022 at 10:14 am. 57 comments already!

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Some initial thoughts on Russia’s partial mobilization:
 
First and foremost, this represents a new phase in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, namely the fact that Russia is fighting the NATO alliance as opposed to just Ukraine.
 
To respond to this threat, Russia is creating a new reality of its own, namely to transition from a fight that had Russia working with allies and operating on foreign soil, to Russia defending the motherland. The partial mobilization is being conducted in parallel with political referendums that will see the Donbas and other Ukrainian territory be absorbed into the Russian federation.
 
This absorption will fundamentally alter the legal foundations of the conflict. While the referendums currently being considered only impact lands under current Russian occupation, Putin spoke of the need to free all of “Novo Rossiya” from the yoke of Ukrainian tyranny.
 
I believe the absorption of Ukrainian territory will be expanded at some point to include Odessa and Kharkov.
 
The mobilization of 300,000 men, as well as the announced goal of bringing all other units up to the standards of the Russian army, will not happen overnight. Russia will be forming new units, and this takes time.
 
I believe we will see a strategic pause while Russia completes its partial mobilization. This pause will be marked by heavy fighting as Ukraine will seek to disrupt the referendums and alter the geography of the battlefield. But once Russia consolidates the new territory politically, and accrues the necessary military capacity, I believe we are looking at the physical destruction of the Ukrainian nation as the endgame for this conflict.
 
I also believe there is nothing NATO can do to alter this reality.

 
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