Nuclear Fallout? Russian Strikes Create Richter Scale Explosion in Khmelnitsky

by SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER

But first, today’s video mashup includes Josep Borrell, once again intimating that the Ukraine war would end in mere days were the West to stop funding Zelensky’s regime. This very frank admission should give everyone an idea of how fragile Ukraine’s position is, and how desperately they hang on by a thread.

The second series of videos demonstrates Russia’s massive strike, called by some the largest of the entire war thus far, on Ukraine’s Khmelnitsky ammot depot. This is merely to illustrate the next point I wish to make, which is that there is a lot of ‘recency bias’ that goes into yesterday’s attacks on the Russian air fleet. Suddenly there is doom and gloom, and the typical, expected ‘concern troll’ swarm, etc. But many people quickly forget how vast the damage is which Russia is inflicting on Ukraine on a daily basis. The cost estimate of the above Khmelnitsky strike alone was said to be over $500 million, according to DPR’s Basurin and other sources.

Rybar:

They have shaken the earth’s firmament.

Yesterday’s massive strike on the Khmelnytskyi warehouses is shaking the ground.

Our sources say that the 649th aviation depot of missile weapons and ammunition in the village of Hrushevitsya stored a significant number of anti-aircraft missiles for Western-made SAMs – including those for Patriot SAMs.

According to the earthquake monitoring system of the Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre, tremors of 3.4 magnitude were felt northwest of Khmelnytskyy at 04.52 Moscow time.

This fact indicates that the impact on the depots was very effective – the secondary detonation of the weapons caused seismological activity in the earth’s crust.

Yes, not all the stockpiles were in Grushevitsa. The Ukrainian command has been storing weapons in various depots across the country since last spring. But with periodic Russian UAV and missile raids, the loss of even a batch of anti-aircraft missiles would affect Ukraine’s air defence capabilities.

Ayden here, summarizes the view:

 

 
A Ukrainian military post complaining about how many ‘eggs’ were placed in one basket in Khmelnitsky:

 

In Khmelnitsky, a fire was extinguished yesterday after a strike on military warehouses. It is claimed that in addition to ammunition, 83 million euros worth of satellite communication systems, military tablets, and data encryption systems were destroyed. According to available information, a total of €200-220 million was blown up. Cargo from Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan.

In fact, an interesting RUMINT report has come out regarding this strike:

Further Khmelnitsky Depleted Uranium Update.

Excellent research by Gleb Georgievich Gerasimov.

A clear spike in gamma radiation was detected in Khmelnitsky on or about May 12th, with emission continuing to rise the following day and remaining at the elevated level thereafter.

Considering how little gamma radiation comes from depleted uranium, this clear spike in gamma radiation in Khmelnitsky indicates that there was very large stockpile of the DU munitions that was destroyed, raising the uranium dust into the air.

By comparison, the towns of Ternopol, Khmilnik, and Novaya Ushitsa (images 3, 4, and 5) remained at their apparent regular, base levels. This indicates that the Khmelnitsky anomaly is indeed a spike and corroborates the claim that the stockpile in Khmelnitsky contained DU munitions. The map viewed is attached as the sixth image.

This British gift will keep on giving.

 

 

 

🇷🇺🇺🇦.It is worth noting that panic reports are spreading in Ukrainian social networks that during the detonation of an ammunition depot in Khmelnytsky, a large batch of British tank ammunition with depleted uranium, which was recently brought to Ukraine along with Storm Shadow missiles, was also destroyed. As a result of a huge explosion, particles of depleted uranium could be dispersed on the territory of the Khmelnytsky region, which, taking into account the experience of Yugoslavia and Iraq, could lead to an outbreak of cancer in the medium term.

There are already reports that the radiation background has allegedly increased in Khmelnitsky. Let’s wait for actual confirmation.

The mentioned Ternopil was also dealt a devastating blow last night, as well as other areas:

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Major Ternopil warehouse complexes hit.

 

 
Russia inflicts such destruction that is several times more serious than even the loss of four aircraft, and it does this on a daily basis to Ukraine. Yet recency bias ensures that people glom onto the aircraft downings and forget all else, as if Russia has suddenly magically stopped winning because of one fluke occurrence.

The truth of the matter is, Russia has actually not sustained a single serious aircraft loss in quite some time now. There was a time last summer, give or take, where it was a regular weekly occurrence for them to lose at least one Su-34 or something similar. But in the past few months they’ve lost almost nothing; it has been a tremendous run, likely owed to the depletion of UA air defense. So this four losses simply catches the number up a bit. But it still pales in comparison to the massive losses being inflicted on Ukraine on a daily basis. After all, if that wasn’t the case then people like Josep Borrell wouldn’t be saying that Ukraine would collapse in literal days if Western support stopped.

Even in Bakhmut, they are still being dealt grievous blows. One source about Bakhmut counter-offensive battles:

The AFU sacrificed nearby to 2,500 personnel and dozens of military vehicles (incl. 1 Leopard destroyed by AT Mine) for their counteroffensive nearby to the Berkhoviskoye Reseirvoir and within the Soledar Tactical Region. The AFU General Staff did not anticipate this many losses; and may struggle with organising future assaults until this number is replenished with fresh meat.

Some may balk at the above; perhaps 2,500 sounds a tad high. But then ask yourself, why has this supremely successful counter-offensive stopped? If they were bulldozing over the poor Russian mobilized, who fled in horror at their approach, why haven’t they gloriously continued on? It appears to have flamed out or hit a wall of some kind. Typically, sustaining disproportionate losses is the only type of wall one could hit that would put an abrupt end to such a brief offensive. It couldn’t have been fuel or ammo, as it would be hard to expend that much in a mere couple days of fighting.

With that said, other sources claim only 1,000 men total were used in the offensive, but this is hard to believe given simply the sheer amount of areas, both north and south, which they attacked. If 1k were used over such an area, that would mean some areas would only have been a mere company or less doing the assault.

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On that topic, a few updates. Prigozhin continues to claim major friction with Russian MOD:

 

 
Though, for the first time he praised a few Russian units:

“Tonight, the enemy did not take any action to advance further. On the Berkhovsky reservoir, we were forced, as I have already said, to place part of our units in order to hold back the further advance of the enemy. Those fighters [of the RF Armed Forces] who did not run away from the lost positions joined us. Some of them quite successfully occupy their positions and, built into the overall system, deflect the enemy’s offensive. As for the constant information that the Airborne Forces are helping us, I don’t know, I haven’t seen them. The Airborne Forces, in theory, were supposed to recapture those positions that were lost by other units. But, as far as I know, these positions are still under the enemy control. Therefore, I do not know where the Airborne Forces are and who they help. PMC “Wagner” continues to move inside Bakhmut. As soon as we slam Bakhmut, then the task of the Airborne Forces or other units is to keep it [Bakhmut]” – Prigozhin said in a statement

A brief note on the above. Yesterday in the comments someone had a good question about, why is it all these purportedly ‘fleeing’ units always appear to be LPR/volunteers/etc. as per my reporting, and there is never any news about actual Russian units. Where are the actual Russian units?

To clear that up a bit:

Firstly, I wasn’t saying with 100% certainty none of the units related to all the recent Bakhmut counter-offensive drama were Russian, but simply that all the unit names I had personally seen and researched, I couldn’t find a 100% definitive Russian unit amongst them. One that was the focus of much discussion, the 72nd, is claimed to be Russian, and I’m not necessarily doubting that it is, but I cannot find any info on it from official Russian OOBs. Maybe it’s a new unit. The ones I did find or already know about (such as the 2nd and 3rd Corps) are known LPR/volunteer brigades.

There was one I was uncertain about, the 374th, however a new video released today appeared to show a Russian unit identified as the 374th claiming to want to join Wagner. It’s not fully confirmed but we can assume this is a Russian mobilized unit. Also, I’ve come across a new unit that appeared to have taken part in the Bakhmut drama, the 200th separate motor rifle from Murmansk, though I’m not 100% certain—but they appear to possibly be one of the units Prigozhin is referring to in the statement above, based on this report from today:

4th, 200th motorized rifle brigades and the 6th motorized Rifle Division seem to have redeemed themselves during the night and stopped the bleeding on Wagner flanks for now, although it appears to have cost them a few commanders. Monitoring situation.

From Russian MOD:

Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine east of Bogdanovka (direction of the Berkhovsky reservoir).
Motorized infantry units of the 3rd battalion of the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade repelled six attacks east of Bogdanovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic. The attacks involved assault groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine numbering more than 100 people, seven tanks, 14 infantry fighting vehicles, as well as other military and special equipment; seven tanks, 11 infantry fighting vehicles and more than 50 Ukrainian servicemen were destroyed;
In the area of responsibility of the 6th Division, an attack by enemy assault groups supported by three tanks was repelled and four infantry fighting vehicles; enemy losses amounted to more than 30 Ukrainian servicemen, two tanks and three infantry fighting vehicles. (Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation)

The ‘cost commanders’ refers to commanders Bravko and Makarov allegedly killed from the 4th motorized rifle brigade, which is an LPR brigade.

As to where the true concentrations of Russian troops are: of course, the Kremennaya-Svatovo line has one of the highest concentrations. Not only VDV airborne but 1st guards tank army (4th guards tank division, etc.) as well as many other motor rifle brigade units.

The Kherson and Zaporozhye region is also saturated with actual Russian units. For instance, I personally know of the 219th motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd guards motorized rifle division of the 58th army in the Pologi region, which is kind of at the center between west Zaporozhye and Ugledar. 22nd separate guards special forces are also there.

In Marinka, we have the 20th guards motor rifle of the Russian army. The 132nd separate guards motorized are in Avdeevka. Of course, it’s well known that many Russian naval / marine groups are around the Ugledar area, such as the 155th Black Sea Fleet marines as well as the 40th naval infantry from Russia’s far east.

But Russia is said to also be heavily supporting the Bakhmut operations with artillery forces, but of course you’ll never hear about that since they’re firing from the rear and not on the front contact line, so there will never be a ‘retreat’ from them.

Either way, I think there are much more Russian units in and around Bakhmut than we know of, including those mysterious VDV that Prigozhin claims to not be able to find, but for similar reasons you don’t hear about them because the more elite units like VDV aren’t the ones retreating, so they’re not generating headlines, but rather quietly holding their positions.

With that cleared up, let’s back up to the shot down aircraft situation once more.

I’ve previously posted this video of the CEO of Rostec stating how all of last year, Russia produced about ~150 total helicopters, and this year alone, Russia is already at the ~300+ mark just in the first five months. Russian aviation across the board has gone up in production, and if there’s one thing Russia knows, it’s aviation production:

Aerospace was a well-developed industry in the Soviet Union. In late 1980s, the Soviet Union accounted for 25% of the worldwide civilian and 40% of the worldwide military aircraft production.

Of course, Russian fighter jet/bomber production is far slower than that of helicopters. In previous years, they’ve only produced a handful of the top, most sophisticated 4th generation jet aircraft per year:

 

 
But my point is that, production should still increase commensurately in ratio, at least. Take for instance the Su-34, which was shot down yesterday. As can be seen, during peak years they could produce 18 of them. The production only slowed because they saw no further need to produce much more, as the contract signed long ago for a set number was being wound down.

The last two Su-34s of the 2012 contract were delivered to the 968th Fighter Aviation Regiment at the Lipetsk Air Base in December 2020. This brought the total number of operational aircraft delivered to the Russian Air Force to 131 (not counting crashes and aircraft written off). Apart from this, also seven pre-production units were built under previous contracts.

As can be seen from the above report, they only produced low numbers to finish off the contract. But with new contracts for the SMO, they can easily surpass even the 18 per year they had done at their peak.

Most current ramp ups through all Russian industries are at least 3X in production gains simply because most industries are adding triple shifts (for instance, 3 x 8 hour shifts per day rather than 1). So, we can roughly assume that Su-34s can be produced at a rate of maybe 18 x 3 at the minimum, and perhaps even more, depending on the scale of the ramp ups that have occurred since the start of the SMO.

Taking Oryx’s list as a baseline example—even if it’s exaggerated—he has 20 Russian Su-34s lost, and 3 Russian Su-35s total in the SMO so far. As can be seen here, Russia can make up the losses of those 20 x Su-34s in just a single year of normal production, not even counting ramp ups. That means it can be safe to assume that Russia has already not only long made up for the Su-34 losses of the SMO, but is likely exceeding them with new production. Even if Russia only ramped up its previous production ‘slightly’ from 18 per year to 20-30, it would have already more than made up for any losses.

And for Su-35s it’s even more drastic, as Russia has hardly lost any of those. Recall, Russia is reportedly selling upwards of 60 Su-35s to Iran, deliveries to start next week as per this breaking headline from today:

 

 
Do you think Russia is having jet availability issues if they’re literally offloading upwards of 60 of these Su-35s onto Iran? Clearly, Russia is not worried.

The point is, a few shot down aircraft is really nothing for an economic power house like Russia. In fact, some have rightly pointed out that the shot down Mi-8MTPR1 is more tragic as Russia reportedly only had 10-20 of them total, as they are valuable electronic aircraft. But, I’m sure Russia is ramping that up as well. And it’s in no short supply of Mi-8s to upgrade to the MTPR standard—Russia has around ~800 total Mi-8/17s.

Of course, the largest tragedy of all was the loss of the pilots themselves, not these easily replaceable craft.

On that note, a few updates on that incident, including some new theories.

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