Is The War in Ukraine Nearing the Culminating Point?

by Larry Johnson

Carl von Clausewitz in his book On War (published in 1832) introduced the concept of “The Culminating Point.”

The culminating point in military strategy is the point at which a military force is no longer able to perform its operations.

If you set aside emotion and consider the current situation unfolding in Ukraine, the evidence shows that Kiev’s army and government is flailing and moving backwards. Without support from the United States and NATO, Ukraine does not have the manpower, munitions, tanks, artillery, air craft, financial resources and industrial capability to stop Russia. Even with more Western support trickling in, Ukraine will still lack the military power to staunch the Russian advance.
 
Doug MacGregor does his typically masterful analysis summarizing Ukraine’s dire situation:
 

 
I am mystified by the Western analysts who are downplaying the Russian offense in the Donbass along the defensive line that stretches from Bakhmut in the south to Seversk in the north as some sort of sideshow with no strategic importance. I disagree. I do not think that Russia is waiting for a “Spring offensive.” A Russian offensive is underway on multiple fronts and Ukraine is paying a heavy toll. Here are some of the summary reports describing the action in the last couple of days:

In the Soledar sector, assault detachments of the Wagner PMC are attacking the positions of the 10th Airborne Forces of Ukraine on the outskirts of Razdolovka , and are also moving westward from the village of Sakko and Vanzetti to Vasyukovka .
 
Clashes continue in the vicinity of Krasnaya Gora and Paraskovievka . The enemy suffers significant losses: the Ukrainian command withdrew in the direction of Slavyansk separate units of the 46th detachment of the DShV and 147th about 116th TRO from Krasnaya Gora .
 
In Bakhmut , the “Wagnerites” entered the Stupka area in the north of the city. Fierce battles are going on in urban areas. Statements about a breakthrough in the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not true – Ukrainian formations continue to resist.
 
At the same time, the partial withdrawal of units from the northern suburbs of Bakhmut and the departure of 63 mechanized brigades from the city yesterday indicate preparations for a possible surrender of the garrison. Now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are concentrating their efforts on holding the route to Chasy Yar in order to preserve the logistics hub.
 
The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is transferring manpower and armored vehicles from Konstantinovka to the vicinity of Chasov Yar . At the same time, additional defensive lines are being prepared in Konstantinovka itself.
 
Russian artillery is conducting a massive shelling of the areas where enemy reinforcements are concentrated on the Konstantinovka -Chasov Yar – Bakhmut highway.

 

 
The United States, Germany and other NATO partners have made a fatal mistake in trying to ratchet up their support for Ukraine by sending a paltry number of tanks and new weapons, such as ground launched small diameter bombs (GLSDBs). Instead of frightening Russia or increasing pressure on Moscow to reconsider its military operations in Ukraine, the recently announced expansion of Western military aid, especially from the U.S., is hardening Russian resolve. Don’t take my word for it. Listen to Maria Zakharova’s impassioned remarks on this very point. She is defiant and explains in detail that Russia perceives this threat as a new attempt by the progeny of the Nazis to do what Hitler could not:

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