Lots of smart people are debating about the economic pain being worse than the "cure" of preventing #coronavirus spread. I don't know the right answer, but I can help you frame the question.
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) March 20, 2020
For starters, forget comparing this to any past economic situation. It is a weird hybrid that has a timer on it (several months), with lots of human adjustments of unpredictable consequence.
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) March 20, 2020
The economy is a "psychology engine." If we can hold our psychology together in a productive way, and we can feed those in need while we do it, the economy is waiting and ready for a full comeback. Nothing broke. Just reassemble and press play.
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) March 20, 2020
Is a trillion dollars of immediate aid enough, or do we need two trillion? The smartest people in the world don't agree. Going big feeds the "psychology engine" best. Going smaller and adjusting as needed works too. Best to go big but hold back half until you see what happens.
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) March 20, 2020
The human ingenuity that is being concentrated on this problem is mind-boggling. It is the biggest variable and the most invisible. Ask Warren Buffett how smart it is to bet against the economy of the United States. Ever.
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) March 20, 2020
Count on the people with money to be patriots in this situation. When my governor tells me I can leave the house, I'll be raining money on the local economy, and not because I like to shop. Using delivery for now.
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) March 20, 2020
The biggest economic variable after the crisis passes will be bringing our supply chains home. The economic benefit of that (which is now guaranteed to happen) will be immense.
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) March 20, 2020
Repatriating our supply chain should be a cabinet level position, or similar.
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) March 20, 2020
Businesses that were profitable before the virus hit are a bank's best friend. Banks LOVE a proven business model that has a short-term cash need. Best kind of loan you can make.
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) March 20, 2020
Printing money and handing out cash is normally inflationary. But we have never had less inflationary pressure in general. Even energy costs less. I can't think of a better time to do it.
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) March 20, 2020
Expect lots of patriotic over-hiring when we can leave our homes, at least for companies that can afford it. If we get employment right, the psychology engine will roar.
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) March 20, 2020
Full disclosure, I put all of my available cash into the stock market during the downturn. When the market comes back, it will happen fast, whether a month from now, next year, or five years from now.
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) March 20, 2020
If you are a new follower, it might help your confidence in my opinion to know I have a degree in economics and an MBA. I'm not an expert by any means. But I can probably see the field better than those with no training. And I don't see anything permanently broken.
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) March 20, 2020
Economics is like no other field of study. It might be the only one in which you can "will it into existence" so long as everyone is on the same page and there are no material shortages. If we keep our minds right, the economy follows.
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) March 20, 2020
I'm making it my job to help you do just that. We'll come out of this stronger if we all agree we will. (Spoiler: We will.) Focus forward. Winning is certain. Timing is anyone's guess.
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) March 20, 2020
Scott Adams is a patriot.
the answer depends on where you are. If you are 1 of our “betters” the answer is no! If you are a “deplorable” the answer not only i yes, but a very strong, horrible yes!
Our strategy is to keep flattening the curve.
What that means is that we keep the number needing medical care under the capacity of the medical field to give that medical care.
China failed to flatten the curve.
Italy failed, too.
Worldwide we have about 8 times more recoveries than deaths, so getting medical help is life or death.
The USA has not had even one recovery…..yet.
But still we are under the curve so it is just a matter of time.
Also, there are a few types of treatments that might work to cure the person, even kill the virus!
So, it could be sooner rather than later.
“We have nothing to fear, but fear itself”. Fear is what crashed the stock market.
Germany, Italy, Spain, France, and Iran’s total population is about the same as the US. As of this morning, those countries have 142,000 confirmed cases.
Gavin Newsom is screeching about California potentially having 20-25 million cases. Jay Inslee was claiming Washington would have over 250,000 cases.
These are panic numbers.
If California were on track with Italy’s per capita infection rate, they would have 36,000 cases. Not a great number, but also not 20-25 million.
If the US had a per capita infection rate 85 times worse than Italy (3/22), we could reach 25 million cases.
So far, these numbers are still very far below the seasonal flu. If they stay that way, do we shut down and shelter in place for every flu season going forward?
Is it good to have more people have to start their economic lives all over again than will catch a disease?
The limited economic activity has shown a reduction on CO2, so by killing the economy, I guess we can save the world.
@SouthernRoots:
AGREE!