Posted by DrJohn on 3 October, 2015 at 7:40 am. 2 comments already!


Obama won Virginia in 2012 by nearly 4 percent—his biggest margin among these three crucial swing states. The Virginia GOP is on the decline, without any Republican in statewide office or the U.S. Senate for the first time in 45 years. Yet in the latest polling, Mrs. Clinton would have trouble besting any credible Republican nominee due to her negative image.

Florida (29), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13) collectively have 60 electoral votes. Adding these Obama states to the Romney 24 gives the next GOP presidential standard-bearer 266 electoral votes, four short of the magic 270. But had the House of Representatives been apportioned by citizen-only figures, the GOP nominee would get 270 electoral votes by carrying these 27 states. There would be no need to win an additional Democratic leaning state.

But under the current system, they must. Which one of the 23 remaining might it be? President Obama carried D.C. and 16 states by double-digit margins. Four other states were carried by comfortable percentages and demographically appear very likely in the Democratic column without a major shift from the near quarter-century statistical norm. The GOP’s best hopes would seem to be Colorado (9 electoral votes), Iowa (6), and New Hampshire (4).

The Centennial State, once a reliable Rocky Mountain Republican bastion, seems to have flipped due to a growing Hispanic population. Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers have been particularly bad there recently, but they may well recover before Election Day. Compared to once dependably Republican Nevada, Colorado seems the easier Rocky Mountain state for the Republicans to flip next time, but it is far from a sure bet.

Iowa’s Democratic leanings continue to baffle farm state Republicans. But starting 1988, the GOP presidential nominee has lost the Corn State every time since except for President Bush’s 0.7 percent win in 2004. Against a credible Democratic nominee, history puts the GOP candidate in the underdog position.

This leaves New Hampshire, once an erstwhile reliable GOP State. George H.W. Bush won the Granite State by 26 percent in 1988. But since then, Democrats have won every time but once: a slim 1 percent win by GOP nominee George W. Bush in 2000. The 2016 GOP nominee will again need to beat the statistical tide.

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