Ron Brownstein:
The paradox of Donald Trump’s bombastic presidential campaign is that his rise may ultimately benefit the rival he has attacked most vociferously.
With his rambling and belligerent speech in Phoenix last Saturday, Trump signaled again that on the sprawling list of targets that inspire his antagonism, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush ranks near the bulls-eye. “If you people go with Bush,” Trump insisted flatly during the speech, “you are going to lose.”
And yet, while he is creating some risks for the nominal front-runner, many Republican analysts predict that Trump eventually could prove more asset than obstacle to Bush’s bid for the party nomination. “If you were a total evil-conspiracy theorist, you’d think the Trilateral Commission got Trump to run because … it helps Jeb more than anybody,” says longtime Republican strategist David Carney.
The surge of interest in Trump could threaten Bush in one important respect: by radicalizing opinion within the party on immigration issues where Bush has taken a relatively moderate position.
But Trump’s ascent could inadvertently help Bush, both by providing him a foil in the immigration debate, and also by dividing the populist conservative voters who are least likely to ever support an establishment favorite like the former Florida governor.
That dynamic could especially threaten Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who formally announced his candidacy Monday and has taken a series of steps—including a hard line on both undocumented and legal immigration—to court the same disaffected voters now flocking to Trump in polls.
Trump’s most obvious threat to Bush is intensifying the spotlight on immigration, an issue where Bush already faces formidable resistance from the GOP’s most conservative elements.
Even before Trump raised the temperature with his attacks on Mexico, immigration had emerged as a major dividing line in the 2016 GOP race. Almost all of the Republican contenders have rejected any legal status for the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S., which Bush has consistently supported (although he has wavered on whether he would also accept citizenship, as opposed to permanent legal status, for them).
Local politicians, human-rights leaders, and immigrant advocates gather to protest against billionaire Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump outside the Trump International Hotel, currently under construction on Pennsylvania Avenue between the U.S. Capitol and the White House, July 9, 2015, in Washington, D.C. Latino and Hispanic people were enraged when Trump disparaged immigrants and particularly Mexican-Americans while announcing his run for the presidency. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
In addition, three contenders—Walker, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee—have suggested a reduction as well in legal immigration, which Bush has also rejected. Now, Trump’s vitriolic attacks on Mexico have galvanized so much attention that they appear likely to dominate the first GOP presidential debate on Fox News Channel in August.
Polling conducted this spring in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, sites of the critical three early GOP contests, found that a majority of likely Republican voters in each state supported either legal status or full-scale citizenship for the undocumented. In the surveys conducted by Burning Glass Consulting, founded by three women with a long pedigree in GOP politics, only 29 percent of likely GOP primary voters in Iowa, 34 percent in New Hampshire, and 37 percent in South Carolina said the undocumented should be denied any legal status.
But Katie Packer Gage, the cofounder of Burning Glass, and the deputy campaign manager for Mitt Romney in 2012, says those attitudes could buckle under a sustained campaign argument about immigration. “I don’t think we want to have the whole discussion be on immigration,” she says. “When you look at our poll in the primary states, the majority is for a pathway [to citizenship or legal status], but it’s more like they would accept a pathway. It’s not like they are anxious for it.”
Indeed other surveys show a substantial strain of anxiety about immigration—both undocumented and legal—running through the GOP coalition, particularly among the party’s substantial blue-collar and older constituencies. In one national Pew Research Center poll, nearly half of Republicans older than 50 and those without a four-year college degree opposed any legal status for the undocumented. Meanwhile, more than three-fifths of each group said legal immigrants were more a burden than a benefit to American society. On each issue, considerably fewer younger and college-educated Republicans expressed those conservative views.
Although Trump broadly praised legal immigration in his Saturday speech, most analysts believe Trump’s support is likely to flow most from the blue-collar and populist Republican voters who respond not only to his attacks on undocumented immigrants and free trade, but also to his blunt nonpolitician style. “They tend to be people who like the idea that he’s not a politician: They say this is a guy who ‘says it like it is’ and he doesn’t care what people think.” Gage notes. “They like that he is a very successful businessman.” Trump sent a clear signal to those voters on Saturday when he reprised a phrase from the Richard Nixon era that referred to overlooked middle-class white voters and insisted: “The silent majority is back, and we’re going to take the country back.”
Trump’s potential appeal to voters in the party’s populist wing is what could tilt his impact on Bush from threat to asset. Polls generally show Bush running best among the party’s “managerial” wing of college-educated, moderate, and upscale voters. That means if Trump can sustain his support—which many Republican analysts question—he is likely to be strongest among the voters where Bush is weakest. And to the extent Trump attracts those voters, he denies them to more-conventional Bush rivals like Walker or Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.
Many GOP analysts agree that Bush will benefit if voters alienated from him gravitate to Trump, who probably faces a lower ceiling of total support, than to Walker or Rubio, who have the potential to build a broader and more potent coalition. Combining results from the past three NBC/Wall Street Journal national surveys, just 27 percent of GOP primary voters said they would consider voting for Trump, far fewer than indicated they could back Bush, Walker, or Rubio.
Trump creates even more immediate problems for second-tier candidates such as Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Huckabee, and Santorum, who have all targeted a similar group of blue-collar and conservative voters. “It just takes the energy out of the room, and it’s going to be harder for a person not in first place to break through,” says Carney, a top Perry strategist in 2012.
After Trump’s comments about McCain’s military service, he may have finally shot his mouth off one too many names.
David Carney???? Ummmmm. Isn’t he the same lead guy that was one of the lead campaign managers for Bush 41’s second run, the failed Sununu For Senate campaign and the Dole for President campaign and who now works for Rick Perry?
Why, yes, he is.
@another vet: I didn’t hear him say anything about McCain’s military service. He stated that he was not a hero. I will state that also. What act did he do that was ‘heroic’? Did he get on top of a burning tank and kill 240 enemy? McCain’s nickname “songbird’ has little to do with his musical ability. Just ‘serving’ in the military does not make a person a hero. If it did, then we’d have to say that Bo Bergdahl is a hero. McCain has personally worked ‘against’ veterans since he’s been in the Senate. He’s done more harm than good for veterans. He is also a Rino. He was a member of the gang of eight (which sold us out)
@another vet –
I agree with you Trump is pretty much toast after his comment about McCain’s military service.
My dad was a prisoner of war for two and a half years, held by the Chinese in the Korean War. He doesn’t talk much about those days. When he does, he’s says your job is mind your p’s and q’s, remember your military discipline, believe in God that you will make it home. When he did come home, the small town he came from gave him a hero’s welcome. One of my dad’s friends, when he was growing up, asked me if I knew my dad was a prisoner of war. I said I did. Good, he replied, because he never could have made it through an experience like my dad. My dad said he did his job – nothing more, nothing less. This is one of the reasons my dad preferred that I not enlist. But, I did anyway. 24 years – in some good places, in some shit holes, but some of the best times ever. Dad, awfully proud when I earned my Trident.
@Redteam:
He said he liked people who weren’t captured. Does that mean he doesn’t like someone like Matt Maupin? That was a direct hit on McCain’s military service. His follow up statement was as such:
“People who fought hard and weren’t captured and went through a lot, they get no credit,” Trump said. “They’re like forgotten.”
He makes it sound as though only people who were captured are remembered. It isn’t so. While I certainly agree the Vets in this country have been shit on, especially by the left, people who do remember our Vets remember and give credit to those who weren’t captured just like they do to those who were. Given Trump had four deferments, he is no position to criticize anyone’s service or to judge who is a hero or who is not. I would think flying a fighter jet through North Vietnam’s air defense systems, which from what I understand were nothing to sneeze at, takes some courage.
@David: Kudos to your Dad. The Korean War Vets are another group whose sacrifices are largely forgotten. My Dad earned two BSM’s over there and never talked about his experiences other than to me after I enlisted and a few others. Unfortunately he passed away last year so we can no longer relate. They are dying off just like the WWII Vets are.
I noticed a typo in my original post. It should have read, ” he may have finally shot his mouth off one too many times.” How I got “names” in there is beyond me.
While everyone is quick to pile on Trump for insulting McCain, why is no one upset because McCain called all those Americans who went to listen to Trump “crazies?”
McCain is quick to insult others (calling Mike Lee, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz “whacko birds”) but he seems to be pretty thin skinned when someone points out that McCain built his political career on being a POW.
Others have suffered the same experience as McCain, like Congressman Sam Johnson (Tx-R) who has done ten times more for veterans that McCain ever thought about doing, and they don’t go around insulting other Congressmen or Senators like McCain does.
John McCain may have been heroic during captivity, but he didn’t mind selling out other Americans with his “maverick” attitude. Someone should have told McCain that the best thing you can do with a maverick is get rid of it because it disrupts the entire herd. And someone needs to ask McCain why, for years, he refused to have anything to do with John Kerry but after they went together on a “fact finding” trip to Vietnam for the purpose of locating other POWs or the bodies of those left behind, he and Kerry became best buds.
I know of one family who was trying to get their fallen family member back from Vietnam, and McCain refused to help them, claiming there was no way that family member would ever be found. Congressman Sam Johnson then stepped up to the plate, and Lt. Donald Matocha was brought home in 2004.
@another vet #6 –
My eyes are going. I read “times” instead of “names”. 🙂
Sorry about losing your dad. So right about vets from past wars passing away so fast. They’ll be saying the same thing about us one day. The only thing military dad and me talk about is the PX, commissary, and occasionally something we saw in the military clothing store.
My dad told me after I enlisted, “why did you do that?” I understood what he meant. Being a frontline combat medic in Korea, chief OR tech in Vietnam, he saw a lot of guys wounded in a bad way. You would never want your son or daughter to see that or experience that. I’ve seen my share of guys, good and bad, cut in half by a 50 cal. I told my daughters they don’t need to enlist. If they do, no combat arms or combat support.
@David: I’m a vet, I do not consider serving in the military as ‘heroic’, I see it as an honor. If someone thinks John McCain is a hero, kindly supply the details of what his heroic ‘act’ was. His service record should not be a part of this discussion, John McCain has done all he can to prevent details on war prisoners from coming out. I suspect so that his ‘record’ doesn’t come out. He has done absolutely nothing to help vets since he has been in the Senate, in fact almost every vote he’s made on vets affairs has been ‘against’. Trump calls a spade a spade, that’s why he is still gaining in popularity. Even if he doesn’t mean everything he says, at least he says what we want to hear. Unlike Obama who doesn’t know the meaning of Islamic radicals. I don’t think Trump has hurt himself at all, he needs to continue to say what needs to be said.
@another vet:
I don’t see any mention of McCain or his military service in that statement. In fact it seems as if he’s talking about all vets other than McCain.
@another vet:
There are many professions in the military services that take a lot of courage, such as leaving a submerged submarine deep in the ocean, or crawling for miles in rough terrain behind enemy lines to be a sniiper.. Thats what being in a military service is. I think to volunteer to put your life on the line takes ‘courage’ but is not, of itself, an heroic act. I saw “To Hell and Back” now that was a hero.
@David:
Now I’ve heard of many ‘heroic’ acts by these guys. They really put their lives on the line for others.
@retire05:
I’ve heard of this kind of actions by McCain, that’s why I could never consider him a ‘hero’ and he has nothing to say that I want to hear. (I get enough of the liberals spiel from the Dimocrats)
@retire05: I think McCain is going to pay a price in the primary for calling those folks crazies. That was a dumb comment on his part and will make good campaign fodder for his challenger.
@Redteam: Trump’s comment was in response to what he said about McCain the day before so even though McCain’s name wasn’t in that particular sentence, the comment in fact had everything to do with McCain.
@Redteam: I’m not disputing if McCain is a hero or not. I’ve had people call me a ‘hero’ and I tell them flat out I am not. What I am disputing is Trump’s comments. They were off base. With four deferments under his belt, what does he know about serving, being shot at, or being a POW? Does he feel the same about the Americans who perished on the Bataan Death March? They were captured too.
@David: I don’t know if I’d want a kid serving in the military these days either given the “support” they get. I’d lay odds there is a serious morale problem right now compliments of the cutbacks, losing hard earned gains to ISIS and AQ, weak leadership at the top, and the social engineering that is taking place. .
@another vet:
McCain is not in the race, is he? Did I miss something?
@another vet: I’ll take your word for it. I don’t read that in it.
@another vet:
He also got rejected for medical reasons. Maybe he should have taken the physical first and he wouldn’t have had to get those deferments. But as long as the country will elect a felony draft dodger , and allow an openly traitorous person to be Sec of State and will elect a totally ineligible person as president with a fake birth certificate, a SS number that won’t pass E Verify and a fraudulent draft card, then I don’t see where Trump getting 4 deferments should rank very highly. I doubt Trump survives to the actual nomination but at least he’s saying many of the things I like hearing. I wish other’s would, but they’re all politicians and are just ‘playing the game’.
@another vet:
I’ll bet, with gays openly serving, now opening it up to surgery to change crazy people’s genders. The military services are going to hell in a handbasket. If we don’t get the Dims out of control, they might even disband the military.
@Redteam –
#9 – I agree with you on that doing military service doesn’t make one heroic. In matter of fact, I think the terms “hero” and “heroic” are used, and overused, much too freely in describing an action.
#12 – Combat medic, one of the toughest jobs in the military. They do an amazing job on the battlefield.
@Redteam, #3:
McCain went through hell while serving his nation during wartime. Prior to being shot down, beaten, and bayoneted by his captors, he had been injured by exploding ordnance while attempting to rescue a fellow pilot from a burning jet on the deck of the U.S.S. Forrestal. While a POW, he was repeatedly tortured to the point where he eventually made an unsuccessful attempt to commit suicide. I suppose that might be considered an escape attempt of the last resort. Heroism isn’t only what we see in a Hollywood movie. What McCain went through as a result of voluntarily putting on his nation’s uniform in wartime deserves the respect of silence, even if someone is disinclined to offer praise.
Trump avoided military service by availing himself of a series of deferments before finally being classified 4F. He recently claimed he had escaped the draft owing to having a high number in the lottery.
Trump has no business publicly questioning the military record of anyone.
@Redteam: He is running for re-election and has a primary challenger.
@Redteam: His deferments don’t disqualify him for POTUS. As I pointed out to Rich on another thread, Vets are a dying breed so having a POTUS with military service is going to be the exception rather than the norm in the future. Two of the last three never wore the uniform and one of those was a war protestor or as Word pointed out on one of his threads, a draft protestor. Trump’s deferments however do figure in if he going to make statements about other people’s military experience. What he said about McCain applies to everyone who was ever a POW so it doesn’t stop with just McCain.
@Greg:
Go ahead and give us a rundown on Slick Willie’s military service, and then jump on Obama’s. Then tell us how Trump’s is ‘worse’.
You also might want to talk about Kerry’s anti-American activities. or is it only Republicans that you have a problem with.
So after telling us about McCain, tell us which of those things made him a ‘hero’.
@another vet: :
I agree with that. Seems as some of the liberals on the blog think it’s a big deal for him but think nothing of the felony draft dodging of Slick Willie or the fraudulent SS number Obama sports. Repubs are expected to be patriotic American loving honest people. the Standard for Dimocrats is draft dodger, liar, traitor, thief and swindler’s. Sounds about right?
@another vet: Oh, ok, for senator. I had read that as Primary for Pres.
@Greg:
Do you know of any Dimocrat that has the ‘right’ to question anyone’s military service?
@Redteam, #26:
I can’t recall any instances of Clinton or Obama diminishing a veteran’s military record. They haven’t engaged in the sort of hypocrisy Donald Trump is being criticized for. Nor were democrats responsible for the earlier attacks on McCain’s service. They certainly weren’t behind the smear campaign targeting Kerry’s service.
@Greg:
Oh my, so now Clinton and Obama’s military accomplishments are that they didn’t speak bad of a veteran’s military record.
Is that a new standard or what?
Smear campaign? only the truth. What about Kerry’s later record on treason?
So tell us again how Trump spoke badly about McCain’s military service? What did he say that was actually derogatory to McCain’s service. I don’t like McCain’s open border campaign’s nor his refusal to help Vets and particularly his refusal to help in POW activities. He’s a disgrace in that respect. He does not need to serve another term free loading on the public.
Trump isn’t being criticized because he dodged military service. Trump is being criticized because, as a person who dodged military service, he is criticizing a man who voluntarily went to war for his nation and endured much pain, suffering, and hardship as a result. Clinton and Obama haven’t got a damn thing to do with it.
The attack was not truthful. It was a case of paid character assassination for political advantage. Anyone who is not biased, stupid, or both can examine the established facts and reach that same conclusion. The people behind the swift boat smear disgraced themselves, not John Kerry. They’ll never be free of their own stink.
@Greg:
I ask you again. What did Trump say that was ‘critical’ of McCain that was not true? I have not heard one sentence that was critical of McCain.
While discussing the merits of McCain, what about him calling his constituents ‘crazies’? Is that a trait you admire in a Senator?
There was no ‘smear’ campaign about Lurch, everything said was truthful. Truth is not smear. Are you saying you don’t know treason when you see it?
@Redteam:
The left always has two different standards no matter what the issue is. That’s one reason why it is a waste of time trying to have any type of discourse with them.
@another vet: I know but I like to yank their chain. We’ve succeeded, tonight, in doing something hard to do, we’ve completely shut Gullible Greggie down. He lost the discussion in so many ways, we left him no way out.
@another vet, @Redteam –
Good job take down on Gullible Greg. Much of what Kerry did, he did to himself. Absolutely no one, even the most decorated, are/were able to earn two Purple Hearts and a Silver Star after less than 90 days in theater and seeing limited combat action. And, when you lie about being in Cambodia before Christmas 1968 on some “secret” action ordered by Nixon, kind of hard to backtrack on that: Nixon was inaugurated in Jan 1969 and Kerry arrived in Vietnam sometime later in 1969. Those “Winter Soldier” hearings, most of Kerry’s winter soldiers were frauds – most never served a day in uniform, a couple were basic training washouts, and another couple were bad conduct discharges. And, those medals he threw away, he tried to get them replaced as lost or didn’t receive. Former Navy Sec John Lehman turned down the request, “didn’t you throw them away, it’s on video.” He had to settle for replicas on his Senate office wall until a Clinton admin official approved the replacement request.
Regarding Trump, I stick with my original assessment – he’s toast as a candidate. When you say those who didn’t get captured don’t receive any credit for their actions, I have yet to meet anyone active duty or retired to be interested in receiving credit. We just did our job. Those medals and the occasional citation certificate, bottom dresser drawer (at least in my case).
@David:
This is typical of the kind of stuff you can find written about Kerry: Notice that his tour on the Boat started on Dec 6, but he got his injury on Dec 2 (while on that boat)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_career_of_John_Kerry
@another vet: I’ve read all your comments this weekend and I am in full accord. The people on here jumping Mac are the reactionary right who distain Mac for his political “moderation”. His desire to step across the aisle to gain accord,.a RINO if you will.
For anyone, particularly one who did not serve during wartime, to demean his service is deplorable. That is Mr. Trump.
You and I have agreed from early on that his appeal is minimal and at best 20% of 50% of American voters. He’s the kind of person that when criticized will hit back twice as hard.
His time in the spotlight is always limited–that’s the good news. He is hurting the chances of Walker, Cruz and Perry—Helping Bush and Rubio.
Thank you for your service Semper Fi
@rich wheeler:
I’ll give you the same challenge as I have others: Give us a quote from Trump that is ‘demeaning’ to McCain’s military service.
I have not seen one and no one has quoted one on this this blog.
The terrible actions of McCain are as a US senator. He has hurt the cause of veterans every since he’s been in Congress. He has consistently voted against Veteran care and benefits. He has hindered POW searches in every way he can. One bill, to release debrief statements of POWs passed the House unanimously and McCain voted against that in the Senate. He didn’t want the fact that he was a songbird to be revealed to the world. I believe the count was over 60 propaganda films he made for the N Vietnamese.
And Rich, if you consider McCain a ‘hero’ tell me which act he did that you would say was ‘heroic’?
@David: So let’s add all this up. Benedict Kerry backed down on his Christmas in Cambodia mission claim. He backed off the claim about throwing HIS medals over the WH fence. He admitted he never witnessed any atrocities in VN that were reminiscent of “Genghis Khan”. So while the circumstances surrounding his PH’s etc. can be open to debate, his actions and claims upon returning home are not. He is a proven liar and served as a propaganda mouthpiece for the enemy during wartime. He also made derogatory comments about us in Iraq as well. Accusing U.S. troops of terrorizing Iraqi women and children in the middle of the night and telling kids that they need to go to college or else they might end up in Iraq. An arrogant, pompous ass. So wonder the left defends him so much. While MOBing for my second tour at the MOB site at Bragg in January 2008, I had the opportunity to meet two of the NCO’s from the Minnesota Reserve unit who posted the picture with their message to Kerry with all the misspelled words and bad grammar. Unfortunately I didn’t get a chance to tell them, “nice job”.
@another vet: But he didn’t back down his collaboration with both enemies of the US during the VietNam war. That is the definition of Treason.
Here’s a good story:
Read more at http://conservativebyte.com/2015/07/mccain-started-all-of-this-mess/
There’s a saying, ”When everybody’s special, no one is.”
McCain called Trump’s supporters ”crazies.”
Then Trump said McCain was a hero, he was a hero because he got caught, I prefer those who didn’t get caught.”
Then McCain said his term ”crazies” was ”an affectionate term.”
Trump stood by his view that the word hero should mean something.
McCain, on the other hand, has added recently that he considers all soldiers heros, no matter where or how they served and Oh, by the way, Trump didn’t serve.
When everybody is a ”hero,” what does that word mean?
If, on the other hand, the word ”hero” is limited by its dictionary definition to just a few persons admired or idealized for courage, outstanding achievements, or noble qualities.
By definition McCain’s idea of ”hero” is incorrect.
By definition Trump’s idea of ”hero” is correct.
Now, what about those cute little adorable ”crazies?”
@Redteam, #37:
There seems to be a misunderstanding about what the paragraphs that you have cited are saying. The craft that Kerry was in charge of on December 2nd and 3rd was a small boat, not a swift boat. A small boat would likely refer to a PBR, a light river patrol boat. PBRs were all over the Mekong Delta. They were shallow-draft boats that could go places where the larger swift boats couldn’t. Kerry didn’t take command of a swift boat until December 6.
@Greg: Kerry’s history includes that he was in command of two boats, the first one beginning Dec 6, 1968. If he was in command of a different boat on Dec 2, then his ‘history’ is incorrect. I didn’t write either article. Maybe this is just more of his lies.
@Redteam, #45:
There’s nothing incorrect about his history. He was placed in charge of a PBR a few days before he was given his first command, which was a swift boat.
@Greg: Gee, Greg, I didn’t know you were an ex Navy guy and are familiar with all those Navy terms.
Tell us more. Was he really in Cambodia on Christmas Day 1968 at the orders of Pres Nixon? He said he was. Or is there some possibility he was incorrect?
@Redteam, #47:
I was Army, not Navy. I was stationed in a coastal area with a bay and river.
I just double checked. On December 2-3 Kerry wasn’t in charge of a PBR as I thought, but a Boston Whaler. Boston Whalers were even smaller than PBRs. They were used to patrol harbors and shallow river and canal waters. Here’s someone’s old snapshot of a Boston Whaler with a mounted M60.
@Redteam: Your comments prove my point. You don’t like his politics so—-‘MADE OVER 60 PROPAGANDA FILMS FOR NVA” BULLSHIT RT—-You and Trump are two of a kind Thank you for your service and Greg as well
@Greg: I didn’t write the story. Only quoted from it. Did you forget to answer the question or just choose not to? Did Kerry spend Christmas of 68 in Cambodia at President Nixon’s orders, or not? He said that, I didn’t.