Hillary Clinton will almost certainly win Monday night’s epic presidential debate on points — and still could lose.
It’s hard to see how Clinton, who has marinated in public policy for 30 years and is preparing for the debate like it is the invasion of Normandy, won’t repeatedly best Donald Trump on substance.
Her strength in this area perfectly matches Trump’s weakness. Trump has appeared to learn for the first time such basic information as that the Trans-Pacific Partnership doesn’t include China and that Russia has already invaded Ukraine on the debate stage or during a media interview. He sometimes reads his speeches as if they include revelations to him — “so true,” he’ll interject after coming across a striking fact or observation in the text.
If Trump has spent time hitting the briefing books, his campaign has kept it under wraps and he has yet to reveal any hint of a new policy depth in anything he’s said over the past few weeks. So Trump won’t be particularly well-informed, and figures it won’t particularly matter — and may well be right.
Trump has a significant built-in advantage in that there is a lower standard for him — not because the media isn’t tough enough on him, as all the media mavens agree, but because he is the de facto challenger and candidate of change in a change election. Trump can win by clearing a bar of acceptability, whereas Clinton has to do more than that and either significantly wound Trump or make a compellingly positive case for herself that has so far eluded her in both 2008 and 2016.
This is not to say that Trump won’t be on treacherous terrain. He can’t bully and mock Clinton the way he did his Republican rivals. He won’t have a crowd to feed off of. Without a teleprompter, message discipline still tends to elude him. The one-on-one format for an hour-and-a-half could make his thin knowledge painfully obvious. And any misstep or outburst that reinforces the idea that he lacks the qualities to be commander in chief would be devastating.
But Trump just needs to seem plausible and the very fact that he is on a presidential debate stage, the most rarified forum in American politics, will benefit him. During the Republican primary debates, the intangibles worked in his favor and they presumably will on Monday, too. Trump is a big personality with a dominant physical presence. His critics often sneeringly say he is a reality TV star, but you don’t become one without charisma and a performative ability that are major political assets.
The fact is that Trump will have to stumble badly — and probably sabotage himself — to live down to Hillary’s critique of him. She has made her campaign almost entirely about how Trump is a monstrous madman. This was an understandable calculation — she wanted to disqualify him out of the box and differentiate and isolate him from other Republicans. The cost is that she has done more than anyone to lower the standard for Trump. It’s not as though he needs to mount a convincing, detailed defense of his tax or child care plan or anything else to invalidate Clinton’s critique of him; he just needs to seem a reasonable person.
He should simply look at her and say, “You clearly broke the law with your email server and you will not be above the law with my Justice Department like you are with the present one because you will be held to the same standards as everyone else who broke the law.”
There can’t be a lower standard than Hillary. 0 is expected of her. Her and Obama are at the same level for expectations.
First, I don’t expect Hillary to show up. She can’t physically or mentally handle 90 minutes on stage. Trump needs to ‘be nice’ to her and point out all her criminal activities and her criticizing of the women Bill raped. He needs to ask her why she let 4 people die at Benghazi.
Clinton has no successes to exploit. It will be easy for Trump to say something like, “you are absolutely correct. Your leadership and experiences have changed a world to a turmoil not seen since the last World War! The old adage is certainly true here. If we continue to do what we have done, we will continue to get what we have. That is the definition of insanity. Does anyone here want to continue down this road to disaster? Or, do you want to create real change that takes us to a safer, more prosperous future”
You’re letting your personal distaste cloud reality.
Aside from Obama being much more popular than you’d like to admit, Hillary, by definition, is likely the most qualified candidate we’ve seen in years, possibly ever (that’s not an endorsement and you have to take partisanship and ideology out of the equation for a moment). Trump on the other hand is likely the least qualified as well as the most outspoken, bombastic, crude, unorthodox, and on and on and on.
Hillary will be held to a much higher standard where if she so much as hiccups or slightly belches, it’ll go down worse than an Al Gore sigh. Trump on the other hand has his bar set so low that he can raise 1 leg and fart and likely gain in the polls.
Obama is popular; nothing he has done is, though. 75% of the nation thinks we are headed in the wrong direction… as in down the tubes. And, what exactly are Hillary’s qualifications that makes her the “most” qualified in human history? (recall that a mere 8 years ago, Obama himself proclaimed her the least)
Hillary has only succeeded at evading justice… the one success she has had in her entire life in public service. Otherwise, what qualifies her? Hmmm?
Trump may not be the MOST qualified, but he is beyond any doubt and argument the MORE qualified. He has had success in real life. He has created jobs, evaluated talent, hire and fired, led enterprises and created plans he executed. Neither Obama nor Hillary has never done a single one of these and it shows.
No doubt, the lesson of what happens when a “journalist” does not perform their liberal function, as shown by the treatment of Lauer when he dared to pose some actual questions to Hillary, has not been lost on future moderators. Trump’s one chance is that people are beginning to wake up to the games the corrupt media play.
Great point, Randy!
Liberal politics succeeds at electing candidates by promising impossible things,
That liberals like Hillary fail to deliver is beside the point, because Democrats believed their “party had unlocked the demographic code to a permanent majority.”
They’d promise the moon and ignore the disasterous reality that followed.
Every two or four years they’d just mislead enough of the electorate to keep power.
Meanwhile the cities they run were destroyed.
The jobs they promised never materialized.
The peace they promised became violence closer and closer to home than ever before.
If anyone will call Hillary out on all her empty promises it is Donald Trump.
Her 35 years in public work work against her.
Our unemployment, our failed public schools, our protection of unions (teachers) over their clients (students), our terrorism, our failed immigration policy, our failed ”war on terror” policy, our horrible ”help” of the people of Haiti (via her own Foundation) all happened on her watch.
Trump has his business record and this past 15 months on the record as a politician to answer about.
She can’t make him look as bad as she looks no matter how she tries.
But you’re not. right?
Strange that you talk about Hillary’s qualifications but can’t name one of them. Bashing Bimbos, perhaps? Letting her ambassador get killed because she wouldn’t authorize security. Having old Vince taken out. Gotten fired from Watergate commission. Leaked 50,000+ emails. That is really some qualifications.
Trump, created thousands of jobs, make billions of dollars, managed an empire that functions in several countries. Has legitimate children.
He’s not going to have to be concerned about the debate, she won’t be there.
@Redteam (One of The Proud Deplorables):
Your assessment of Trump is very much akin to your claim that Obama added $20 trillion to our debt.
Trump is a con man, a shyster, a charlatan, your Snydley Whiplash of Dudley Dorite. He inherited his fortune and has only been able to hang on to it by screwing his investors and those who worked for him. He’s your lawsuit King, having the legal resources and daddy’s money to rape the poor man. That’s who he is, his very legacy.
It’s one thing to choose him as the worse of two evils. It’s quite another to depict him the way you do as something he isn’t.
you have confused him with Hillary. I notice you think you’re good at shooting at Trump, but I still don’t see you listing any accomplishment of Hillary. And doing the world the favor of knocking off Vince doesn’t count as ‘good’.
It is well known that he inherited less than 100 million and has turned it into billions. The average person that inherits 100 million dies broke. Look at all the football players that have made over a 100 mil and are now living in the streets.
What ‘isn’t he’? Are you claiming he’s not successful at business?
Go ahead and start your ‘Accomplishments of Hillary’ list and let your Alinskyite buddies add to it.
1. Had Vince knocked off. (doesn’t count)
@Ajay42302: So your ‘Cut and Paster’ has come up with some new stuff’
I see Hillary is complaining that she is too short to stand on the stage, she needs a foot stool so she’ll look like a ‘big girl’. Next she’ll be asking for an image mirror to make her look slimmer.
Hillary is proudly anti-”Right to Work.”
71% of Americans expressed support for Right to Work laws.
Hillary is a hard core supporter of ObamaCare.
An April 2016 Harris poll found that 64% of Americans want to repeal it.
Hillary is a strong proponent of amnesty for illegal aliens.
59% of Americans are NOT.
Hillary is pro-Black Lives Matter and tepid in support of police.
Black Lives Matter only has the support of 43% of Americans.
If this debate is substantive, how can she possibly win it?
Trump should ask Illary what pseudonym Obama used in emails to her. This alone opens up so many other juicy questions.
: @Nanny G:
Your polling examples kinda brings that “uninformed voter” meme to a new level doesn’t it? I mean, most workers would rather be guaranteed the same wages, benefits, and job protections for free rather than pay for that representation? Wow, imagine that? You omit that most still approve of union representation but kinda sweet on the idea of freeloading.
Kinda funny how so many people object to Obamacare yet the same folks approve of The Affordable Health Care Act. I also noticed that The Harris Poll also said that “Only 28 percent of U.S. adults have a “great deal” or “some confidence” that Donald Trump could successfully manage the nation’s health care policy”. Did you find a poll on how many people wanted to kick their 26 year olds off their policy or returned to those pre-existing exemption days? How about one of how many people still believe in death panels or long lines at the doctor’s office or that doctors will be packing up and leaving in huge numbers? Kinda cherry picking a pit there ain’t ya?
And a candidate that thinks black lives matter over one that doesn’t! How dare she!
I agree that most, myself included, frown on Mexicans just crossing over and gaining citizenship but it isn’t some binary quick fix. Trump isn’t going to mass deport them and Mexico isn’t going to pay for a wall. This issue should really be a Trump disqualifier in itself (as should his bigotry, bullying, sexist, insults, and on and on but this is Trump) as he has utilized this cheap labor for years and years.
I noticed you you left out the fact that near 90% approve of fixing the gun background check loopholes (which is dummied down with the Trump lie that she wants to “abolish the 2nd Amendment) and that a minimum wage hike is approved by damn near everyone and that most people really weren’t that keen on a party that shuts the government down. You didn’t point out how most agree that women should make the same pay as men for doing the same job.
But that’s one good thing about debates. You can hopefully have an actual discussion on important issues rather than relying on cherry picked innuendos and sound bites from a bigoted hack (backed of course by his/her band of bigoted merrymen) on some low end hate site.
@Randy: “create real change that takes us to a safer more prosperous future.” Hell yes–you got someone in mind?
RT RE Trump’s “legitimate children.” We know of 5 with 3 different mothers.–stay tuned.
IMO Trump can thank KellyAnne Conway for making this a horse race. Remember Trump needs 60% of white females–currently about 55%–to win. He’ll be under 20% with Hispanics and lucky to get 8% African American.
Pa. winner will be Prez.
This debate–would agree more is expected of HRC—IF DT can ACT Presidential he’ll win.
True, and Hillary is AGAINST that.
I know of no one that has ever said a good thing about obozocare or ‘the Unaffordable Care Act”
Tell us again why a black life matters more than any other.
True, that’s the same poll that said NO ONE has any confidence in Obama or Hillary to do the right thing.
Hillary certainly doesn’t frown on it.
And you failed to acknowledge that Trump puts that into reality by paying his women execs the same as his male execs.
Ajay, when are you going to come up with No. 1 on your list of accomplishments of Hillary? Is it really that hard to find just one accomplishment?
And as I said, having Vince knocked off, doesn’t count.
Liberals have a problem with people having legitimate children?
latest no. I saw on that is 17%
Who is Kelly Anne Conway?
I forgot to remind you RW that Trump doesn’t have to be concerned about the debate Monday, Hillary won’t be there.
What do you think about her demanding a foot stool so she wouldn’t look too little? You think that implies an inferiority complex. I’m only 5’11 but I never felt inferior in business just because I talked with someone taller than me.
Now, let’s all guess on the ‘reason’ she won’t be there:
1. Had a relapse of pneumonia.
@Redteam (One of The Proud Deplorables): She’ll be there.
Conway is campaign manager—calms him down–helps with needed female vote.
African Americans 17%?? Won’t get over 8%—OVER 12% would assure victory.
BTW YOU HAD IT 55%-45%. How can that be with 3rd Party vote over 12%?
of the people that will vote for president, it’ll be 55% for Trump 45 for Hillary. The others are not voting for president, only because they want to legalize marijuana.
The polling right now has Trump at 17 with blacks.
Really? for who? (never mind, I just googled her. Guess you’re Trumpeteering more than I am)
@Redteam (One of The Proud Deplorables): Seriously, If you don’t even know the campaign managers how can any of your comments be credible?
Close to 20% of the population think Trump and Clinton unworthy—Actualyy it’s higher but many like Kitt will hold their nose and very reluctantly vote Trump or Clinton.
Two things are ABSOLUTE—Clinton will show AND African Americans Will give Clinton over 90% of their vote.
Oh yeah Pa will decide election.
The liberal media, Hillary simply cant lose, she could fall off her footstool and faceplant into the podium, and they would exclaim, How brilliant, and clap like the trained seals they are. I say he should let her screech like fingernails on a blackboard, refer please to any of her speeches.
The Media even made the DNC convention sound like it was a huge roaring success. With the millions and millions wasted on anti-trump ads, cause people dont want to hear it , as I dont want to hear negative Clinton ads, tell me how you are going to try to make it a better, safer, more prosperous America, without stepping on my freedoms.
You’re both off.
Trump has been gaining the votes of African Americans steadily since this polling started in August.
Hillary had 93% at that time.
She only has 77% now.
Trump went from 2% then
to 14% now.
The trend line is plain to see.
Considering that there is an admitted ”shy Tory” effect among Union voters, (secretly voting Trump but never saying so to a pollster) IF African Americans are doing the same Trump will win a record number of their votes for a Republican in recent history.
Charlotte police released the video of the shooting of Scott. They also released some of the evidence. Seems Hillary and the entire left were totally wrong… again. We won’t know how much that conclusion jumped to cost until they tally the damage done to downtown Charlotte.
@Nanny G: I had seen on poll, maybe it was for a state instead of nationally that put them at 17. Doesn’t matter, at the rate they’re switching, there won’t be many left for Hill by November
just wondering, she’s at 77, him at 14, wonder where the other 9 are.
@Nanny G: Seems you’re cherry picking RCP has it 82-9.
@Bill… Deplorable Me: The witness said a book fell from his lap, the book I see had a cover, one that straps to your ankle. The footage is shaky you think they could get some with stabilization capabilities.
tell all of us why it’s important to know who the campaign manager is. I’ve been telling you all the time i’m not a ‘supporter’, just a voter. Since Hillary would be a certified disaster, there is really no other choice than Trump. That Apple eater from Gayfornia must have decided not to run. I haven’t seen any speeches by ‘it’.
If Hill has 82, that must mean Trump has 18. had you gone to a reputable school, you would know that 82+18 = 100
@kitt: I’ve heard so many stories and I can’t tell much from the videos. Seems he had a history of shooting at policemen. Heard he had a holster strapped on a leg.
@Redteam (One of The Proud Deplorables): yes an ankle holster, the witness thought it was a book that fell and reporters flocked to her, she made this false statement to several television outlets,it was a gun that fell, she took a picture and posted it on facebook,it shows the gun laying there. The protestors are carrying signs that say resist the police, well It never ends well when anyone does that.
@Redteam (One of The Proud Deplorables): 82-9 actually becomes 90-10 but you knew that.
Doesn’t matter—White female vote will decide election—DT NEEDS 60%–HE’S CLOSING IN—-Pa winner decides election.
Why do you call Clifton Roberts “it” Is HRC ‘it” how bout DT?
@Redteam (One of The Proud Deplorables): 82-9 actually becomes 90-10 but you knew that.
Why do you call Clifton Roberts “it” Is HRC “it” how bout DT?
You are definitely a proud deplorable.
Hope you weren’t looking for an Hispanic shooter in Burlington, Washington north of Seattle.
Turns out he was another MUSLIM.
His name is Arcan Cetin.
He is originally from Turkey.
Cetin’s neighbor who saw him being arrested and took pictures of the arrest, says that Cetin’s ex-girlfriend and her grandmother were among those shot in the Macy’s.
Maybe an ”honor” killing for her breaking up with him?
because I’ve tried to get information on ‘it’ and can’t. I’ve asked you and you refuse to comment on ‘it’. With all the political correctness, I don’t want to upset ‘it’ by referring to ‘it’ as a she or he, just in case ‘it’ is something in between. If you have some info as to how to correctly address ‘it’, then I could change my references.
You’re a lib and so I know you want to be politically correct.
@Nanny G: Funny my first thought was how middle eastern men sorta kinda look like hispanics, but nahhh thats just bigoted the Media wouldnt lie. 😉
I remember when Romney routed Obama in the Denver debate in 2012. The media just says “Obama clearly won”, so that’s that.
Given the continued state of having a fourth branch of the government in the way of a Democratic Media/Hollywood propaganda machine, I can only say “what difference does it make?”
Hillary wins everything, because “they” want her to.
Like Pravda in the USSR.