Posted by Curt on 9 November, 2020 at 5:10 pm. 3 comments already!


By Scott Hounsell

Let’s face the fact here and now:  Biden isn’t Obama.  Not only does common sense say this, but the data also says it.  In following the run-up to the 2020 election, I watched polling data, voter registration data, and other key factors that would lead to the suggestion of who would win the race in Wisconsin.  Let me be clear, I didn’t predict a Trump landslide.  I said he would win with 285 to 295 votes, with Minnesota being a super-reach state.  In looking at the data coming out of the election, I still think this is going to be the case.  For instance, in Wisconsin, data suggests that there are issues that need looking into in 5 counties in particular:  Washington, St. Croix, Dane, Waukesha, and Ozaukee Counties.

Why these counties?  Well, in particular, these are the counties in which Joe Biden beat Barack Obama’s turnout by double digits.  In 57 of Wisconsin’s counties, Biden underperformed Obama’s turnout, in some counties by as much as 28%.  In 37 of those counties, Biden underperformed Obama’s turnout by double digits. When factored for population losses, that number rises to 41.  In another 16 counties, Biden underperformed Obama by single digits.  In 10 counties, Biden overperformed Obama, but in 3 of those counties, when factored for population losses since 2012, did not beat Obama’s 2012 turnout.  In Trump’s column, Trump beat the 2012 turnout in every county except 4 and his 2016 turnout in every county in Wisconsin.  That means that Trump improved in 95% of counties while Biden lost in 80% of counties.  To simplify even further, Trump averaged a 30.31% average increase in Wisconsin over 2012 and a 16.39% increase over 2016. To compare that to Biden’s tally of an average underperformance of Obama by 8.51% over 2012 and a 17.39% increase over Clinton’s 2016 performance.  That leaves us with our 5 counties in question.

In Washington County, just outside of Milwaukee, Biden overperformed Obama by 15.03%. For reference, in Milwaukee, Biden underperformed Obama by 4.57%.  That’s almost a 20 point swing in voter-behavior in just 20 miles.   While I don’t discount that Biden could do better in a few counties, to suggest that he would suddenly OVERPERFORM by double digits when he failed to do that throughout the state, definitely would raise some questions in a lot of people’s minds.  Not only is the sudden double-digit rise questionable, but It happens in a county that Trump still won anyway.

In St. Croix County which actually finds itself as more of a Minneapolis suburb, Biden beat Obama’s 2012 turnout by more than 3200 votes (16.47% increase) and Clintons turnout by 5708 Votes (or 32.65%).  Again, another massive jump that is completely unexplained as Biden underperformed the three bordering counties by 4.36%, 7.07%, and 12.43% respectively.  This signals a shift in voter attitudes by anywhere from 20 to 28 points, in just a couple of miles.  Again, as with Washington County, Trump also won St. Croix with a 26 point increase over 2016.  Since 2012, St. Croix had a 6% increase in registration, which could be a factor for some of that voter increase, but even so, still shows a double-digit increase over Obama’s 2012 turnout.

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