In another edition of the polls the media won’t cover, between September 29 and October 6, Democrats have lost a four point lead in Rasmussen’s generic ballot that asks voters if they would vote for a Democrat or Republican in the upcoming midterm elections. That poll is now tied at 40% – 40%. At the end of last month, Democrats led 42% – 38%.
The media continue to run headlines that read, “Poll Shows GOP Taking Share of Shutdown Blame,” which is true. Most polls show Republicans are at a single-digit deficit when compared to Democrats (still, a vast improvement over the 2-to-1 deficit the GOP faced in ’95). But all that matters is what happens on Election Day.
If you back up a little further, Obama and his media’s entire shutdown strategy is all about 2014. The media want to give Obama a third-term, which is an accurate way of describing what will happen if Democrats retake the House.
Like this Rasmussen poll, most polls show that Democrats are only hurting themselves a wee-bit more than Republicans. But midterm House races are hyper-local base elections. Which means that another story the media won’t tell is what a GOP surrender would do to turnout in the 2014.
Context matters, and while the media ignore inconvenient polls and try to scare the GOP into handing Obama a victory, the story the media won’t tell is what a surrender will do to the GOP’s electoral chances if the base feels betrayed and stays home.