Posted by Curt on 18 July, 2015 at 3:17 pm. 1 comment.


The Hockey Schtick:


Kyoji Kimoto, a Japanese chemist, scientist, and fuel-cell computer modeler & inventor, has submitted his latest work as a guest post to The Hockey Schtick, and which refutes multiple false physical assumptions which underlie the alleged “first physically sound climate model” described in “the most influential climate change paper of all time.” These same erroneous physical assumptions also continue to serve as the fundamental basis of James Hansen’s NASA/GISS climate model, many other models including the ‘state-of-the-art’ IPCC climate models, and form the basis of the wide range of modeled CO2 climate sensitivity estimates.

In Kimoto’s new work below (and in his prior published paper also below), he addresses the multiple unphysical assumptions made by Manabe & Wetherald, Hansen/GISS, and IPCC modelers et al, a few of which include:

1. An artificially fixed tropospheric lapse rate of 6.5K/km, which does not adjust to perturbations in the atmosphere. This false assumption artificially limits negative lapse rate feedback convection. Using physically correct assumptions, Kimoto finds the climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 to be a negligible 0.1-0.2C.

2. Mathematical error in the calculation of the Planck response parameter, due to a false assumption of fixed emissivity, an error which continues to be promulgated by the IPCC

3. Positive feedback from water vapor (whereas millions of radiosonde & satellite observations demonstrate water vapor has a net negative-feedback cooling effect)

4. Fixed relative humidity (contradicted by observations showing a decline of mid-troposphere relative and specific humidity) (A new paper also finds specific humidity is the most non-linear and non-Gaussian variable in weather models, also implying relative humidity is non-linear, and borne out by observations)

5. Neglect of the < 10 micron ocean penetration depth of GHG IR radiation, which greatly limits potential greenhouse gas warming of the top ocean layer. 

[An upcoming HS post will discuss additional other unphysical assumptions of Manabe et al. including improper application of blackbody assumptions, the Stefan-Boltmann Law, and failure to calculate relative emitting temperatures of greenhouse gases]

According to a recent ‘consensus’ by The Carbon Brief of 36 IPCC authors, “one paper clearly takes the top spot” as “the most influential climate change paper of all time:” Manabe & Wetherald’s 1967 paper entitled, “Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity”

According to The Carbon Brief article,

‘the work was the first to represent the fundamental elements of the Earth’s climate in a computer model, and to explore what doubling carbon dioxide (CO2) would do to global temperature.”

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