From the UNIVERSITY OF EXETER and the “weather is not climate” department comes this press release that comes with a blindingly obvious title. So far, the efforts trying to link “climate change” to extreme weather events usually come up short. Often they come amplified in social media by activists like Bill McKibben who sees climate change occurring behind almost every weather event and uses that as a tool to keep his followers excited and active. But the reality is that extreme weather just hasn’t been on the increase. Hurricane frequency is flat and accumulated cyclone energy has been down, andhasn’t reached levels seen in the 1990’s, US landfalling hurricanes of Category 3 or greater continue in an unprecedented 10 year drought, tornadoes aren’t increasing, in the U.S. at least, heat waves aren’t getting worse, even though activists like to falsely claim so, much of it has to to with urbanization. Droughts aren’t getting worse. Often flooding that is claimed to be worse due to “climate change”, is often a result of poor management, such as what happened in Southwest Britain. In fact, a lot of the ideas that extreme weather is becoming worse are little more than a bias due to increased reporting of 27/7 news outlets.
Even the IPCC says in their SREX report ( IPCC Special Report on Extremes PDF) that with the exception of some warmer days and night and rainfall that “may” have been exacerbated by slightly warmer global temperatures, they can’t make any clear link to other type of severe weather, expressing “low confidence” in such linkages. It’s a dead issue.
Finally, it’s instructive to remember this editorial from Nature that said clearly there’s been no linkage:
Like back after Hurricane Katrina ranaged New Orleans then they were predicting even more powerful hurricanes but nothing then Hurricane Sandy hit the east coast and the media scumsuckers were blaming Global Warming Yeah always expect the liberals to blame everything on Global Warming becuase liberals have walnut sized brains or smaller
“The sky is falling!!!”
2.6% of the USA land mass is considered urban. And this us blamed for the heat wave?
Curt why is it that you are only talking about Cat 3 hurricanes that land fall only in the USA
Don’t other hurricanes count ?
Most Anericans believe that AGW is happening about 2 out of 3
And that includes 40% of GOP according to Gallup polls
Preaching to the choir ?
Most have already left
Science is not about polls. It is about theories that can be validated into facts. Only ignorant people and people with a financial interest support polls as proof of global warming caused by humans!
SQUAWK SQUAWK AL GORE IS LYING,AL GORE IS LYING SQUAWK SQUAWK SQUAWK,GREENPEACE IS LYING SQUAWK SQUAWK,GREENPEACE IS LYING SQUAWK SQUAWK SQUAWK
@Spurwing Plover: @Randy:
Every major scientific organization and association of every country believes in AGW
Even Exxon says that carbon pollution is causing the temps to go up
I guess you think Obama made them say that
@John: You are so ignorant. Science is about facts, not opinion. AGW advocates can not show any facts. You are ignorant because you spout opinion as facts. There has been no correlation between abnormal weather events/frequencies and AGW climate change. Hence Peter Stott’s difficulties in connecting the dots! Maybe you should only post about things you have knowledge about like……. Can’t think of one!
Randy even Exxon admits that the climate is changing from burning fossil fuels http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/current-issues/climate-policy/climate-perspectives/our-position
(from Exxon’s own website)
Our position on climate change
We have the same concerns as people everywhere – and that is how to provide the world with the energy it needs while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The risk of climate change is clear and the risk warrants action. Increasing carbon emissions in the atmosphere are having a warming effect. There is a broad scientific and policy consensus that action must be taken to further quantify and assess the risks.
64% of all Americans say they are worried about global warming
that would include 40% of all Republicans
Randy do you think you really know more about this subject than Exxon ?
If so, why do you think that you know more?
@john: Show the facts John, that is science! You can not! That is why you continue to post ignorant comments. Opinion is not acts! Science only recognizes facts.
Randy it IS a fact that CO2 absorbs infrared wave length radiation this has ben known for 100 years. Do you dispute that fact ? The Earth has been warming. Do you dispute that fact ? The Sun is slightly cooler now than in 1960. Why do YOU think that the Earth has been getting warmer?
Why do you think that the Arctic Ice Cap is melting ?
Why do you disbelieve the US NAvy or the Israeli government or Exxon ? Do you think these are all lefties?
it IS a fact that CO2 absorbs infrared wave length radiation no facts that CO2 produced by humans cause global warming.
The Earth has been warming since the last ice age off and on depending on solar activity, No proof that humans are causing the warming.
Take some time and understand how the average temperature of the world is being determined. The statistics are not valid due to all of the “estimates” used. No one can determine what the temperature of the Earth should be.
The real question is the Earth temperature natural variations or not. Thee are no facts that can prove it either way. So only ignorant people or people with an agenda profess that the Earth is warming due to human factors. There are no facts that prove AGW,
and the Arctic Ice cap is disappearing because ???? If humans are not causing causing the temps to go up well what is ? Scientists can point out why in the past temps went up or down, why do you think they are going up now?
If CO@ does absorb IR spectrum radiation AND CO@ levels are rising why wouldn’t we expect that the temps would go up ?
Randy when Exxon and the US Navy and the Pope as well as ALL major scientific associations and organizations of ALL countries agree, well friend I am ready to believe.
What “fact” can you give as to why the temps are rising NOW?
@john: John, every once in a while I try to give you a chance to understand the difference between fact and opinion. It is obvious that you are too ignorant to understand the difference. Facts are proven while opinion is what may have happened or what may be the cause. When you state a premise like “when Exxon and the US Navy and the Pope as well as ALL major scientific associations and organizations of ALL countries agree, well friend I am ready to believe.
What “fact” can you give as to why the temps are rising NOW? ” saying is opinion. I can not give you facts as to why the Earth is warming. There are none. I can only give you opinions like everyone else because there are no facts. I can not help that you are too ignorant to understand the difference!
Interesting paper claiming low CO2 levels causes desertification and dust productions. ” CO2 is sequestered in the oceans and atmospheric concentrations eventually reach a critical minima of about 200 ppm, which combined with arid conditions, causes a die-back of temperate and boreal forests and grasslands, especially at high altitude. The ensuing soil erosion generates dust storms, resulting in increased dust deposition and lower albedo on the northern ice sheets. As northern hemisphere insolation increases during the next Milankovitch cycle, the dust-laden ice-sheets absorb considerably more insolation and undergo rapid melting, which forces the climate into an interglacial period.” http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987116300305
Interglacial periods for AGW supporters means the warming between ice ages.
For John: This is not a fact, just another opinion that shows the science is not settled.
From The Guardian: July 2016 was world’s hottest month since records began, says NASA
From CNN: July 2016 was Earth’s hottest month on record
Not that it means anything, of course. As for extreme weather events, we’ve currently got another 1000-year flood, in Louisiana.
From the Washington Post: What we can say about the Louisiana floods and climate change
There’s an interesting graphic with the Post article, showing The Observed Change in Very Heavy Precipitation across the United States from 1958 to present.