Allahpundit @ Hot Air:
Even more encouraging than the new Gallup numbers, I think, and circumstantial evidence that maybe Major Garrett was right yesterday about Team O preparing to pull back from some swing states. The catch with Gallup’s tracker is that it’s the only national pollster showing anything close to a seven-point lead right now; doesn’t mean they’re wrong, but allegedly even GOP pollsters aren’t picking up a lead like that in their internal numbers. To get a better sense of Romney’s surge, says election guru Sean Trende, follow the (campaign) money: “Simply put, if Romney were up 7, he’d be advertising in PA, MI, OR, CT and wouldn’t spend a dime in FL.”
Let’s follow the money, then. Don’t look now, but according to the AP, Team Mitt’s thinking of advertising in PA and MI:
At the same time, the GOP presidential nominee’s advisers and the Republican National Committee are looking to give Romney more routes to reaching the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory. They are weighing whether to shift resources from North Carolina, where Republicans express confidence of winning, into states long considered safe territory for President Barack Obama, including Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The evolving strategy comes as both candidates work to capitalize on their second debate-stage meeting, a Tuesday night face off in which Romney emphasized his bipartisan credentials as well as his efforts to hire women while Massachusetts governor, and declared, “I’m not looking to cut taxes for wealthy people.”
CNN is reporting just as I’m writing this that Team Mitt is indeed moving some (but not all) of its assets out of NC. RCP moved North Carolina from toss-up to “leans Republican” today, which put Romney ahead in the projected electoral vote count for the first time in the campaign. Mitt 206, Obama 201, with 29 EVs from Florida still in the toss-up column but hopefully ready to move soon. If that state starts to lean too, Romney will have 235 somewhat bankable votes with nine true toss-up states left to deliver him the remaining 35. The likeliest path is Ohio plus Virginia plus any other state, but if he really is playing to win in Michigan and Pennsylvania and not just forcing Obama to spend money there to defend those states, he could get 36 EVs just between those two.
Related:
18% of Iowans have voted
Not 34%, 18%. Which means the Marist finding (just like the Ohio one) is horseshit.18%. Take your eyeballs over to the Secretary of States’ website which shows a total of 284,000 in. Unless 2012 turnout is going to crash to unbelievable levels (was 1.5 million in 08, just under that in 04), that is 18%.
Demographic breakdown:
Democrats have a 54,000 vote edge, 49.4% to R’s 30.3%, meaning Obama must be running better than 7/8ths of the Independent vote to approach your “35 point margin”. In fact, the Democratic “advantage” so far matches the 2004 “advantage”, a race they lost by over 10,000 votes.
Facts are a shitty thing when you are desperately clinging to the narrative.
I read that, in 2008, 30% of voters cast their ballot before Election Day.
I know we did.
I’ve already voted in THIS election, too.
To see that more absentee/early voters in Ohio are DEMS surprises me.
I had read Dems had problems with voter enthusiasm.
But, maybe the enthusiastic ones are the ones voting now.
Yes, follow the money.
If the polls are to be believed there will not need to be a ”Bradley Effect,” or a “Shy Tory Effect.”
Romney is widening his lead everywhere.
Nan G
it’s nice to hear, I heard Bill O’Reilly say that MITT WAS IN TROUBLE IN VOTES,
right after I saw 52 for ROMNEY,
BYE
I wouldn’t put it past the Obama campaign to “make it rain” in those states the week of the election with a concentrated ad campaign.
I live in Michigan. There are a lot of anti-obama ads on the tube run by groups other than the Romney campaign. What surprises me is that we’ve got two idiot senators, one of which up for reelection. I’ve seen no ads whatsoever from Hoekstra or anyone else on his side. Just the usual “scare seniors about medicare” lies and such from the democrat Stabenow.
The proposals on the ballot are where the real lies are. Even the ones on my side are close to BS. ;-/
@ilovebeeswarzone: What Bill O’ said has to do with votes in each state.
Remember Al Gore?
He won the popular vote, but lost the Electoral College vote.
Romney could do the same if his votes aren’t found in all the right places.
This is a 3-d depiction of the Electoral College votes in 2010, when Obama got ”shellacked.”
Notice how high those cities on the coasts/union strongholds went for Dems/blue?
The Republicans won the House big because of all those rural (red) states.
Nan G
thank you for explaining the difference,
I think I get it now,
it made me confuse to hear that and try to figure if this is bad news and on another is good news, 52 for MITT ROMNEY
bye
Hi Nan. Interesting post, you just made. Just as a hypothetical: what would be the reaction, should Obama lose the popular vote, but narrowly prevail in the Electoral College? I think that this is a distinct possibility, if one believes the Gallup national poll on one hand (though it’s curious that Rasmussen doesn’t agree) and the swing state polls on the other hand (where Obama still has the advantage).
Absent Y2K, I think that conservatives would scream to the rooftops. But, with Y2K, that’s not an option. Do you think that there might then be a bipartisan movement toward a constitutional amendment to do away with the EC?
What do others think?
– Larry Weisenthal/Huntington Beach CA
@openid.aol.com/runnswim: Perhaps we should go back and look at why the EC was chosen. When the Founding Fathers were writing the Constitution, one of the last issues they hammered out was how we were going elect our President. It was almost one of those situations where they said, “Oh look. We almost forgot about this.” There were three options on the table- direct election by the people, letting Congress select the President, and creating a temporary Congress, i.e. the EC.
Direct election by the people was not chosen because at the time it was considered impractical given that voter participation was so low. There was a still a system of elite deference in the country which was a holdover from Britain whereby the non-elite looked to the elite to run the government because they believed that those individuals would be more loyal to the people because they didn’t owe anybody anything. In addition, direct election was considered too democratic because there was a distrust of some. Letting Congress select the President was not chosen because it gave too much power to Congress which would upset our our system of checks and balances. That left the last option, the EC. It was felt that of the 3, it had the least amount of issues, mainly the issue of checks and balances. It was chosen as a last minute compromise.
Passing an amendment to do away with the EC would mean smaller states would lose power so it is unlikely they would support it. As such, I don’t think it would pass. So far there have only been 4 times where the EC has made a difference- 1800, 1824, 1876, and 2000. The rest of the times (over 90% of presidential elections), the person winning the popular vote carried the EC as well. As such, I don’t believe the EC has had as big of an impact on electing Presidents as its opponents make it out to be. Should Romney take the popular vote and Obama take the EC, I wouldn’t have an issue with it because that is the way the Constitution says Presidents are to be elected. It probably won’t happen, because I still think whoever wins this election will take both the popular vote and the EC with room to spare.
another vet
hi,
EC is E FOR electorate and C is FOR what?
THANK YOU
MAYBE CITIZENS?
@ilovebeeswarzone: E is for Electoral and C is for College. EC=Electoral College. I should probably clarify that in elite deference, the elite were considered just that.
another vet
no it’s me, I always have a problem with abreviations, I USUALLY LET IT GO,
and read further to try to figure it’s meaning,
but I felt safe with asking you, because I know you would not insult my ignorance,
best to you and thank you
@ilovebeeswarzone:No problem. No one knows everything. There is stuff I have to look up because it’s the first I’ve heard of it.
another vet
I just heard the EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT RESIGN MORSI,
and the MUSLIM brotherhood put another in charge,
BYE
@openid.aol.com/runnswim:
What matters is the EC. If Romney doesn’t claim it, too bad. That’s the rule. No whining allowed.