Posted by Curt on 18 October, 2012 at 3:52 pm. 14 comments already!


Allahpundit @ Hot Air:

Even more encouraging than the new Gallup numbers, I think, and circumstantial evidence that maybe Major Garrett was right yesterday about Team O preparing to pull back from some swing states. The catch with Gallup’s tracker is that it’s the only national pollster showing anything close to a seven-point lead right now; doesn’t mean they’re wrong, but allegedly even GOP pollsters aren’t picking up a lead like that in their internal numbers. To get a better sense of Romney’s surge, says election guru Sean Trende, follow the (campaign) money: “Simply put, if Romney were up 7, he’d be advertising in PA, MI, OR, CT and wouldn’t spend a dime in FL.”

Let’s follow the money, then. Don’t look now, but according to the AP, Team Mitt’s thinking of advertising in PA and MI:

At the same time, the GOP presidential nominee’s advisers and the Republican National Committee are looking to give Romney more routes to reaching the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory. They are weighing whether to shift resources from North Carolina, where Republicans express confidence of winning, into states long considered safe territory for President Barack Obama, including Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The evolving strategy comes as both candidates work to capitalize on their second debate-stage meeting, a Tuesday night face off in which Romney emphasized his bipartisan credentials as well as his efforts to hire women while Massachusetts governor, and declared, “I’m not looking to cut taxes for wealthy people.”

CNN is reporting just as I’m writing this that Team Mitt is indeed moving some (but not all) of its assets out of NC. RCP moved North Carolina from toss-up to “leans Republican” today, which put Romney ahead in the projected electoral vote count for the first time in the campaign. Mitt 206, Obama 201, with 29 EVs from Florida still in the toss-up column but hopefully ready to move soon. If that state starts to lean too, Romney will have 235 somewhat bankable votes with nine true toss-up states left to deliver him the remaining 35. The likeliest path is Ohio plus Virginia plus any other state, but if he really is playing to win in Michigan and Pennsylvania and not just forcing Obama to spend money there to defend those states, he could get 36 EVs just between those two.

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18% of Iowans have voted
Not 34%, 18%. Which means the Marist finding (just like the Ohio one) is horseshit.

18%. Take your eyeballs over to the Secretary of States’ website which shows a total of 284,000 in. Unless 2012 turnout is going to crash to unbelievable levels (was 1.5 million in 08, just under that in 04), that is 18%.

Demographic breakdown:

Democrats have a 54,000 vote edge, 49.4% to R’s 30.3%, meaning Obama must be running better than 7/8ths of the Independent vote to approach your “35 point margin”. In fact, the Democratic “advantage” so far matches the 2004 “advantage”, a race they lost by over 10,000 votes.

Facts are a shitty thing when you are desperately clinging to the narrative.


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