Thread via Armchair Warlord
For today’s thread we’ll take a look at the latest work from that Obama sockpuppet think tank, the Center for a New American Security.
I’ve been traveling and not writing much these past two weeks. Some brief thoughts about the second phase of the war, Russia’s offensive to retake the Donbas, and implications. Thread. (map from Nathan below). 1/ pic.twitter.com/CLGRZimeLx
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022
I love how people go out of town for a couple weeks, get back to Twitter, and act like they’ve descended, enlightened, from a Himalayan retreat.
Without national mobilization, I think the Donbas is the last major offensive the Russian military can attempt given the current state & availability of forces. Whether it succeeds, or fails, the Russian military will be largely exhausted in terms of offensive potential. 2/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022
Russian casualties thus far have been less than 10% and damaged units have had a month to reconstitute.
But please, Mr. Director of Russia Studies and “follower of Russia capabilities,” tell me more.
This is a risky operation. UKR forces have been reinforcing around Kharkiv, and attacking to threaten the Russian ground lines of communication for this offensive. Even if Russian forces make significant gains, they could be pressed to hold territory and vulnerable afterwards. 4/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022
Ukraine’s twitter offensive into towns they already control around Kharkov going swimmingly in the heads of Beltway think tankers, which is probably its primary objective anyways.
(Tweet 3 was platitudes)
UKR forces appear to have conducted a tactical retreat in some areas, blown bridges, and at the same time could position for a counter attack to threaten the sustainment of the Russian offensive. 5/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022
I love how when your side is getting schwacked any retreat becomes “tactical.”
Also how they’re supposed to counterattack over blown bridges is beyond me, but hey, I’m not the CNAS Director of Russia Studies. I’m just a vet staring at maps for fun.
Russian forces have taken heavy losses in manpower and equipment, with far fewer combat effective formations available. Not clear what we are calling ‘BTGs’ at this point and their level of manning. Russian reinforcements are far from sufficient to replace earlier losses. 6/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022
Even according to Oryx it’s not worse than 20%. And they’ve had a month to reconstitute. So this guy is just believing Ukrainian propaganda numbers or something.
Next!
In the south, Russian forces had been tied down in Mariupol. Putin’s announcement that they are going to avoid storming Azovstal probably reflects that they can’t afford to lose further manpower and need those units for the Donbas offensive. 7/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022
Can you get paid for writing takes this bad?
Like seriously asking, I do this stuff for free.
(meanwhile in the real world the Russians have redeployed their assault troops elsewhere, and it’s on video)
Even still, it’s unclear if the southern axis of the planned offensive will be more than a fixing action. The Southern Military District's forces have been mauled over 2 months of fighting. This means a larger operational envelopment is probably beyond their means to support. 8/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022
He says, without evidence. Also if you, like, look at a map there’s a pretty big salient developing in that southern defensive line right now where the Russians are smashing through.
Russian forces in the southwest around Kherson city are struggling to consolidate a defensible perimeter west of the river. The units deployed there are relatively light, and under pressure. They could even be forced over time to retreat east across the Dnipro. 9/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022
Meanwhile the Ukrainians are retreating into Nikolaev. Not even the Ukrainians are pushing this rosy of a take right now.
Ukraine has been deploying reinforcements to Zaporizhia, Donbas & Kharkiv. Russia has made little effort to disrupt ground lines of communication into the Donbas. This means that a Russian success is at best contingent & UKR could be in position to launch counteroffensives. 10/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022
The Russians only blew a bunch of bridges over the Dnieper yesterday and have been running airstrikes into the region for the last month, but tell me about the upcoming Zelensky Offensive.
It’ll probably turn out as well as the last “-ensky Offensive.”
Expansion of support to include armor, IFVs, and artillery is going to allow Ukraine to replace losses and equip reserve brigades (esp artillery and ammunition which Ukraine needs). Hence the general trajectory of correlation of forces in this war is not in Russia’s favor. 11/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022
French Government of National Defense in 1871 vibes right here.
If the Russian military sends units in piecemeal, sticking to roads, with narrow advances – they will be defeated by UKR as they have in other battles. I’ve seen them make adjustments in some areas, but some of the problems are structural. 12/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022
Where does this meme even come from? Is he suggesting the Russians are attacking in road march formation?
Like yes there are a lot of roads in Ukraine, when going from A to B you generally use a road, but, like… any army would do that lol.
Reticent to make any predictions on how the battle for the Donbas will go. These things are contingent, and it depends. The outcome can range from Russian forces making gains to suffering another significant defeat. 13/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022
Translation: I don’t want to admit Ukraine is going to lose regardless of the first twelve tweets I just wrote.
Dvornikov's appointment changes little. There’s not much distinguishing him from other Russian generals. The more pertinent question is how/if the Russian military has reorganized command and control, air support, and logistics for this offensive. 14/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022
They never had a problem in the first place, but please go on…
Donbas is a relatively urban region. Russian forces likely need Severodonetsk to control Luhansk and Slovyansk + Kramatorsk in order to claim they have captured Donetsk. These could end up prolonged and costly fights in urban terrain. 15/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022
Almost like the Russians are prepared to win them.
I think it is fair to say that the decisive period of the war was the first three weeks (maybe even first 4 days). Whatever happens in this next phase, the Russian military is likely to exhaust its offensive potential in the near term. 16/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022
Now do Ukraine lol.
Does this presage a stalemate? Not necessarily. UKR has its own offensive options. Russia may next try to consolidate control over territory held and pressure UKR via blockade. Its too early to predict what the next phase might look like & it depends on what UKR chooses to do.
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022
And we’re back to the great Zelensky Offensive.
CNAS is a very prominent progressive-military think tank with enormous influence in official circles in DC. If this is what they’re putting out, no wonder US policy has been so misguided thus far. /end
https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1518260082659713024
What’s the point of a war without murder, rape, and pillage?
04/26/22 – From Ukraine, with loot
Zelensky needs to surrender, tap out or cry uncle, whatever is necessary to stop his people from being killed
Would that have been your advice to FDR? To Lincoln? To the Continental Congress?
Putin needs to shoot himself through the head and put Russia and Ukraine out of their misery. Ukraine was a beautiful country.
Didn’t give a shit about that “beautiful country” when Obama was ok with a invasion
Greg in 2014
And
Of course he thought Putin’s perception of a growing threat was justified when Obama was in office
And:
Are you someone who has never changed his mind about anything? Someone who can never admit they were wrong? No different now than you were 8 years ago?
Trump is like that. He’s never been wrong about anything. It’s part of his narcissistic personality disorder. It’s important to be able to see and acknowledge when we’ve been wrong, because at some point every human being is. When we can’t, we wind up at war with reality.
Bullshit. You supported it because Obama supported it. You now support Ukraine because Biden supports Ukraine. We all see it.
Some might make that same observation regarding the supporters of Donald Trump. He incited a riot that left people dead, but they can’t acknowledge the fact. SO MUCH has to be denied not to see something so obvious that it actually involves a break with reality.
The same level of denial is involved with Vladimir Putin. The man is a frickin’ MONSTER. What he’s doing is EVIL. Denial of this requires us to not believe the evidence of our own eyes.
He incited no such thing. The only people who died as a result of the demonstration were supporters of Trump at the hands of the Capitol Police and the Fed’s
https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/1519006160120074241
https://twitter.com/HisPearlGurl/status/1478457546230882315
https://twitter.com/3sidedstory/status/1517864412878557184
https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/1516097584628178952
https://twitter.com/RobManess/status/1469124177508675586
You once said “he perceived a growing threat to Russia’s national interests.” As he did in the year 2022. The monsters are the Nazi’s who you so glowingly support.
How many times must you be told that MY THINKING HAS CHANGED before it finally registers?
How many times must you be told that your flip-flops are so obviously BASED ON WHAT YOUR SIDE OF THE POLITICAL AISLE SUPPORTS before it finally registers?
The GOP ALSO supports Ukraine and the needs to neutralize the threat of Vladimir Putin. This is not a partisan position.
They also supported Ukraine the first time he invaded where you did not. Why didn’t you? Because Obama did not.
No, the agenda and propaganda narrative of the people you work for has changed.
Some might make that same observation regarding the supporters of Donald Trump. He incited a riot that left people dead, but they can’t acknowledge the fact.
Uh, no he didn’t. If Trump did that, if he broke the law…then go arrest him….
DO IT.
I dare you.
greg, pretty much with every post…
Instead of putting on display how utterly stupid you are, what you SHOULD do when you lose an argument and know it is either just stop posting or admit it.
greg has the Truth written on his head, but won’t look in the mirror…
We here have your number greg, you are a complete fraud in every sense of the word
greggie, you change your mind as the democrat wind blows. I know changing your mind is quite difficult since thought is not involved.
What, aside from Obama said “oh, never mind” when Putin invaded Crimea and idiot Biden is exploiting the shit out of the invasion of Ukraine is different, in your mind?
Yeah, Trump was right. Trump was right about energy production, Trump was right about the Afghanistan withdrawal, Trump was right about NATO taking their own defense more seriously and Trump was right about sending lethal weapons to Ukraine.
Idiot Biden reversed all that. So, indeed, Trump was right, idiot Biden (and his handlers) were all wrong.
Gee shipments back to russia of matags and car parts, funny does it go Fed EX? Someone needs to ask the opinion writer. Nice couch only a little burnt, wife will like. I call UPS or PODS.
Motyl is a Ukrainian propagandist….
Dismissed
https://twitter.com/Youblacksoul/status/1518917749740867589
Your favorite Putin troll, Juan Sinmiedo. Cranking out such crap appears to be is his or her full-time job.
Describes yourself to a T!
How’s that Nazi flag holding up on your wall?
https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1518980629823639553
https://twitter.com/Youblacksoul/status/1518905887431266305
Meanwhile…
The walls are closing in!!!!
https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1519006028465115141
https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1518966216257413122
Putin can still break things, but we’re going to help Ukraine break Putin.
The gold backed ruble is proof https://www.tradingview.com/chart/RUBUSD/EnEb4X0z-Timeline-Ruble-Surpases-Pre-Invastion-Standing-Against-USD/
So go ahead and put your savings into rubles. See how it works out.
I might have to as the Dow has its worst month since the crash of 08
Just admit all your bullshit about Biden destroying the ruble and the starving people rising up to kill Putin is absolute garbage.
Do it.
I’m not the one who’s acting as a Fifth Columnist in support of a Russian mass murderer.
Ok Goosestepper what ever
No, you’re the one who’s acting as a Fifth Columnist in support of Nazi mass murderers.
Why does Putin have superfans among the US right wing?
*Actually many on the right have already done so, because FOX News is no longer crazy enough.
A Guardian article written by this joke of a human being?
Rofl
You consistently prove you’re a clown
He doesn’t.
Why is the Left putting all their effort behind this new, yet kind of the same, bigoted hoax?
Haha. Because there aren’t any.
But Black Americans saying they are going to kill whitey, and then they do…along with Asians?
That’s actually real.
A silly smear, and kind of “journalism” that Americans and the free people of the world solidly reject.
Just admit you and your people are hate-mongers and need to make up strawmen to attack, instead of living meaning full lives.
Dismissed.
So what IS it that you love about Vladimir Putin, the first Adolph Hitler of the 21st Century?
We warned you and your Party about Putin. You ignored the warning.
You own this war now. It’s on you.
And, in case you missed it, you support Azov. Azov are Nazis. Hitler was a Nazi.
So…
You support Hilter.
We’ve got Nazis right here in America. We’ve got the KKK. They don’t define what America is.
The Azov Battalion was Putin’s rationalization for aggression. Now they’re kicking the shit out of his amateur soldiers. The son of a bitch has now VALIDATED them.
In such low numbers as to be non-existent. It’s not a problem. America is the least racist place on the planet, and white Leftists invent or embellish events to generate false outrage and get clicks/votes.
When you find one, let me know. The Azov need help plastic wrapping kids to polls.
Yeah, they’re known as ANTIFA and they are fully supported by Democrats. It seems you guys LIKE Nazis.
Who is this “we” you speak of?
“WE” didn’t cause this war. Biden and the EU did.
Here’s the problem: who is over there, observing? We don’t have people at the fronts and, even if we did, with this current regime, you couldn’t believe them. You certainly can’t believe the Russians. No doubt Ukraine will put the best possible light on the situation in order to boost morale and support. Unless and until the Russians leave, Afghanistan-style or they have triumphant parades in Kyiv, we don’t know what the hell is happening.
Average Ukrainian citizens observe. Many Americans have friends and acquaintances in Ukraine. It was a beautiful, prosperous nation, filled with friendly people.
Reminder: you and Your party firmly reject anecdotal evidence, so your assertion is rejected.
We don’t believe the Russians and we CERTAINLY don’t believe the American Media. They’ve lost all legitimacy, and are just Putin-style propagandists for our own regime.
Comment on this, asshat:
Putin is supplying energy to the very European nations supporting the destruction of his military. This strikes you as a brilliant arrangement? It strikes me as some sort of a suicidal death spiral. Europe produces useful things. Russia has an economy based on the sale of resources.
For Putin, yes. You have to be a special kind of stupid to try and spin that around and make it opposite of what it is, son.
Read it again, you dumb son of bitch, and then give me an actual response, not a lie:
The Russian economy is based largely on resource sales. The European and US economies are based on the production and sale of goods. Russia production levels won’t be able compensate for the pace of attrition, in either war materials or trained military manpower—both of which have turned out to be surprisingly substandard and have taken heavy losses. Sanctions aren’t going away next week. They’re going to continue until Putin breaks. It’s only a matter of time.
The invasion was a stupid, stupid, stupid move on Putin’s part. His regime will be lucky just to survive.
Don’t lump in the US. We have our own oil. Europe needs oil to produce and sell. Putin has the advantage because much of Russia’s economy is internal and not completely dependent on trade. That’s why their GDP appears to be so low. Much of their own production goes to their own people and economy.
The sanctions have failed.
That might just be the stupidest thing you’ve ever written.
False. Putin is more popular, has a stronger ruble, and has taken much of the coast where the Natural Gas is.
And a tactical nuke is all he needs to use to either take Zelensky out, or get him to surrender.
04/26/22 – Russia-Ukraine War’s Mounting Death Toll: Latest Estimates Suggest Russian Troops Have Been Hit Harder
04/26/22 – Russia has lost more than 300 officers during its war in Ukraine, analysis of public records reveals
04/23/22 – Sanctions hit Russian economy, although Putin says otherwise
The Kremlin has propped up the ruble by forcing Russian businesses to deal exclusively in rubles, and by raising interest rates to 20%.
Whole article written based on this anti-Russian group as a source
Dismissed.
Based on third parties “estimating” losses.
Dismissed
Dismissal, otherwise known as denial.
The rate of inflation in Russia hit 17.3% last month.
Keep posting crapola like that and it’s easily dismissed.
LOL
Dismissed
Inflation is an interesting thing. It’s very real, but how they give that magic number is usually absolute propaganda.
greg and his “sources” could literally find any percentage they want, if they choose exactly what was in the basket of goods and what cost of living changes to make.
The rate of inflation in Russia hit 17.3% last month.
Inflation of what, exactly? Define your basket of goods. Give me the data and things measured for that?
Get back to me after you’ve taken an economics class.
Inflation rate is even easier to sculpt than presidential polls. I suspect the inflation in the US was higher than Russia, last month.
Yes, things are wonderful in Putin’s Russia, and such a drag here in Biden’s America. Right?
Russia is winning this war. The Leftist/West media is running cover with such nonsense as “if they didn’t “win” in three days, they failed” and trying to spin Putin’s moves that have his ruble on top, rather than hyperinflated…like the US dollar.
Just be honest, Baghdad Bob. You’re full of shit.
Be honest. You changed your socks.
https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1519323031398756353