Posted by Curt on 5 May, 2012 at 12:28 pm. 27 comments already!

Now that it appears Romney will be our nominee I have little hope of taking the White House this election year.

So instead our efforts should move to taking the Senate and keeping the House to ensure that anything Obama tries to do in his continuing destruction of this country is stopped dead in its tracks.

So far we are not in bad shape. In the Senate currently there are 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans and 2 Independents (who should be counted as Democrats since they always vote with the Dem’s) so 53 to 47. 23 Democrats and 10 Republicans have their seats up this year so it’s quite possible we could take the Senate.

Real Clear Politics has the Democrats holding 46 seats, the Republicans holding 46 seats and 8 that are in play. Those being Florida, Maine, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Montana is looking good:

Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg holds his largest lead yet over Democratic incumbent Jon Tester in Montana’s U.S. Senate race.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Rehberg ahead of Tester 53% to 43%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

So is Nevada:

Incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller has crossed the 50% mark of support against his likeliest Democratic challenger in his bid for election to his first full term in Nevada.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Nevada finds Heller picking up 51% of the vote against Congresswoman Shelley Berkley who draws 40% support. Just two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

In Florida the Republicans are still battling to see who will go up against incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson. Right now the numbers don’t look good but once the nominee is settled we should get a better handle on that State.


I haven’t seen much polling for Maine but the last one, which is a month old, shows the Independent King leading Republican Summers 56% to 22%. The Democrat running, Matt Dunlap is only polling at 12%. No idea if King will caucus with Republicans or Democrats however. That’s an important question since it looks like a landslide.

Massachusetts shows a slight lead by the Republican Scott Brown over Elisabeth Warren but with the latest gaffe from Warren we might be seeing a larger lead opening up. The Boston Globe has Brown over Warren by 2 and the Western New England University Polling Institute has him winning by 8.

In Missouri Democrat McCaskill is tied or behind each of her Republican challengers.

Virginia is close:

Virginia has become a very purple state that currently experiences small perturbations between reddish purple and blueish purple. While this only became apparent to some as a result of the 2006 and 2008 elections, it has been in the making for ten years and has accelerated over the last five. It is now fair to say, I believe, that Virginia has become a reasonable microcosm of the nation when you consider its rural Southern demographics combined with its bastions of younger, upscale educated professionals in its northern D.C. suburbs, it’s six-figure income families in the exurbs and outer-suburbs, the large middle class region of the Tidewater area, and a healthy portion of ethnic and racial minorities. The demographic trends are, and have been for some time, in favor of all but the rural Southern component. This has turned the state very purple and threatens to turn it blueish purple to light blue unless the GOP conducts itself in a manner acceptable to the growing demographic sectors and thus focuses on core issues of upward mobility, fiscal responsibility, and competent, prudent management of the government.

All of this is currently reflected in the standings of the presidential contest and the US Senate race. Most all polling to date shows Allen and Kaine essentially tied in the Senate contest

And finally in Wisconsin there are Democrats still battling it out to find out who will challenge Republican Scott Brown. So far it looks good:

Scott Walker (R-inc): 50
Tom Barrett (D): 45

Scott Walker (R-inc): 50
Kathleen Falk (D): 43

Scott Walker (R-inc): 51
Doug La Follette (D): 40

Scott Walker (R-inc): 50
Kathleen Vinehout (D): 38

Finally InTrade has the Republicans taking the Senate at 63%.

It’s going to be close, close, close and just one more reason we need to start focusing our time and effort on getting the Republican candidates over the top.

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