Posted by Scott Malensek on 15 January, 2010 at 4:13 am. 37 comments already!


As Democratic leaders see things, the economic situation is going to look a lot more promising in the fall than it does right now. And once you factor in the deeply tainted Republican brand and drill down and look at the 435-seat map on a district-by-district basis, the chances of waking up Nov. 3 to a Republican majority in the House are virtually nil.

“We’ve been saying this would be a tough election year, but it’s a hallucination for Republican leaders to think they’ll take back the House — this is not 1994 déjà vu,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen told POLITICO.

Basically their frame of thought is that Repubs will not retake the House because:

1) People forget that it was the Democrats’ Congress that tanked the economy, and instead blame Bush (but…that dog don’t hunt like it used to w independents and moderates)

2) The economy is getting better, and Democrats will take credit for it (Pretty sure he said it w a straight face too, but he’s right…Dems will get credit for the economy in the Fall. 17.3% of Americans workers who are unemployed will make sure of that)

3) Repubs don’t have enough money to contest each district (He’s probably right here, but he’s ignoring the math, and the math says Dems took Congress by running conservative Blue Dogs in red districts, and those are the ones that need contesting-not every single district)

4) Not enough Dems are retiring (Here, he’s right.)

SO….what do you think:
Will Republicans take the House back
Will Democrats keep the House in the Fall?

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