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bucko36
14 years ago
The giant is awakening!!!!!
B-Rob
14 years ago
Er, yeah. A few things to note:
1) This is a poll of what Rasmussen calls “likely voters”; not the general public, not registered voters, but “likely voters”. In that sense, it would be more accurate to say “Obamacare is not popular among Rasmussen’s defined universe of ‘likely voters'” as opposed to saying “Obama is not popular with the American people”, or “Obama’s Approval continues to crater.” I bet he is not popular in Alabama, either; but that ain’t “America” any more than the select universe Rasmussen polls is.
2) I am not sure that Rasmussen explains WHAT the “likely voters” are likely to vote for. Is this subset the group of people who are “likely” to vote in the 2010 congressional cycle, or the 2012 presidential race? Or is it defined based on the fact that they voted in 2008? And should we even care a year or three years out WHAT they are “likely” to vote for? Especially since you are measuring issues today based on what next year’s supposed “likely voters” think? Why not just say “left handed people support Obamacare at such and such a rate”? It would tell you as much as this “likely voters” stat tells you.
To the extent that conservatives use the Rasmussen polls to reinforce the “Obama is not popular” and “the public option is not popular” memes, you are engaging in a process of self-delusion and cherry-picking to reinforce your own wishful thinking.
It’s a question of degrees but the bottom line is indisuputable.
Nice try BROB!
Cornfed
14 years ago
@B-Rob, the “likely voters” that you speculate about are the same “likely voters” that overwhelmingly approved of BO just 8 months ago, when he was proclaimed to be one of the most popular presidents in history. I’ll bet you didn’t have a problem with the “likely voters” definition then. That said your entire post is without merit.
B-Rob
14 years ago
@ Cornfed —
Wrong. I simply do not care what “likely voters” said about his popularity; all that mattered to me was what actually happened during the election. Contrary to the latest nutty conservative conspiracy theory, ACORN did not steal the election to the tune of a 200-some-odd electoral vote whitewashing McCain. Instead, Obama got the highest popular vote total ever and turned previously solid Red states like Virginia and Indiana blue. I know it pains you cons to admit this, but among the average American, Obama is well liked . . . which is why most people cringe when they see the insane posters at tea-bagger rallies.
@ Mike’s America —
Interesting you link to that graph now, having previously concluded that “Obama’s approval continues to crater”. Hmm . . . “crater” to anywhere from a +6 to a +17 in other polls.
Another thing — Rasmussen is an obvious outlier. If you drop is that the other RCP outlier, the average is a +7.7 spread. Yet what do you tout as the appropriate “measure” of Obama’s popularity? Why the most negative outlier! Having previously claimed Obama’s approval “continues to crater”, RCP undercuts your already shaky credibility.
CRAP: Wrong. I simply do not care what “likely voters” said about his popularity; all that mattered to me was what actually happened during the election.
Ahhh… the 70 year old prom queen still revels in her high school hey’day, despite the ravages of time and reality.
CRAP back with pointless points and tunnel vision again, I see. Why Rassmussen? Of the big three pollsters, Gallup, Zobgy and Rassmussen, the latter is the one with the best accuracy stats. Zogby second.
Zogby’s most recent “job approval” type poll was last conducted Oct 16th. To show the idiocy of the participants, they asked the same question two different ways, and got two wildly different results.
“Overall, do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job as president?”
Approve 49
Disapprove 51
“Overall, how would you rate President Obama’s performance on the job?”
Excellent (22) plus good (23) = 45
Fair (11) plus poor (44) = 55
Taking the Zogby extremes only, twice as many responders believe Obama is doing a poor job as those who believe he is doing an excellent job.
Gallup’s Nov look at the Zero’s approval shows the favorability trend dropping 21 points from inauguration. Conversely, his disapproval ratings have risen 33 points, from approx 11 to 44 in that same time period.
All polls note he’s losing support by larger margins than he’s clinging to it. Couldn’ta happened to a better fellow.
But then, I’m not a fan of polls. The only one that counts for me isn’t conducted until Nov 2010.
B-Rob
14 years ago
@ Mike’s America —
I have a question:
If you were given the choice between the U.S. having unemployment at 10.2% next October 30 (meaning we are still in the doldrums) or at 7% (meaning the economy has definately turned around) — which would you prefer?
Cornfed
14 years ago
@B-rob, I think I understand now, you didn’t care about “likely voters” then, but you care enough to post about them now. Are you related to john kerry?
@B-Rob: You’re doing your best to try and cover up the FACT that Obama’s popularity is cratering. But you are only grasping at straws and in the end, you are only deceiving yourself.
It’s too late in the season to be cherry picking. That pie must be awfully sour by now.
B-Rob
14 years ago
@ MataHarley —
Yours is what I would call a cherry-pick amongst cherry-picks. You took people who judged Obama as doing “fair” and put them in the “disapprove” catagory. W.t.f.? According to dictionary.com, the definition of “fair” is “neither excellent nor poor; moderately or tolerably good.” Fair is CLEARLY not a disapproval. If it is put where it SHOULD be, then the numbers are 55% rate him “moderately or tolerably good” or better, versus 44% who rate him poor. Hmm . . . that makes the Zogby poll seem more in line with CNN and ABC news, doesn’t it?
@ Cornfed —
only you could read a sentence that proclaims “I don’t care about ‘likely voters'” and presume that I actually DO care. It’s not based on any facts or logic, of course, just your “gut feel”, huh? Figures. No, son, the truth remains: the average middle American (“real America” if you will) likes Obama. They like him, they like his wife, and they like his kids. You conservatives, of course, are WAY out of the mainstream. You read that World Daily News and NewsMax b.s. and think it is actually true. And even worse, you have convinced yourselved that everyone agrees with you; but they don’t. And every once in a while, it takes hard numbers for you people to get a clue. But then the denial kicks in, and you search for anything that is consistent with your cluttered world-view. Hence bowing at the alter of the well-cooked Rasmussen numbers and proclaiming “America hates Obama”. Meh.
@ Mike’s America —
Let me put the numbers this way: GWB would have wished that his popularity “cratered” to a RCP average of +6.5 points. You used a splashy adjective “cratered”; the problem is that the actual numbers simply do not bear you out. Despite your best wishes, he remains above a 50% approval rating.
Now does he poll as well among the ever-shrinking GOP base? Er, no. Of course not. Why should he? They thought Bush was a GOOD PRESIDENT, for God’s sake. So why would anyone actually want THEIR approval?
Whatsamatter, guy… don’t like how the wide spread between the extremes of approval v disapproval plays out? Only an attorney can play the nuance game and expect it to alter the truth that the POTUS is losing support by a wider margin than he is maintaining it.
Note carefully: Those in the “fair” category are maintaining the status quo, as well as the “good” category from March in the Zogby data you are contesting. These are responders that were neither over or under whelmed by Obama.
However what you truly fail to accept in Zogby’s history is that the “excellent” approvals have dropped 8 points from March thru October (they have nothing more recent). The disapprovals have increased 10 points in the same period.
So I will repeat, trying to override your “it all depends upon what the meaning of “is”… is” attempt at whitewashing polls, Obama is losing support at a greater rate than he is hanging on to it. Increasing disapproval and losing approval is a mean downslide of notable proportions.
B-Rob
14 years ago
@ MataHarley —
I ask you the same question I asked Mike:
If you were given the choice between the U.S. having unemployment at 10.2% next October 30 (meaning we are still in the doldrums) or at 7% (meaning the economy has definitely turned around) — which would you prefer?
Of course I’d prefer the decline down to 7% and further decline. So are you going to try and convince us that the unemployment rate is declining, instead of on the increase over the next year? Then are you going to paint a rosy picture of what happens when Bernanke stops buying MBSs in March and the anticipated interest rate starts going up mid 2010?
Only the most foolhardy and gullible believe the WH spin that this is a “recovery” happening. We won’t know what goes on until the feds stop supporting the financial institutions and housing market, and the economy has to take it’s first steps without taxpayers propping it up on training wheels.
@B-Rob
If Rasmussen numbers should be dismissed. . .why was he so spot on in his 2009, 2008, and 2006 election forecasts? Why does the Rasmussen garner so much attention when the CNN, ABC, CBS polls are seldom featured except as the outliers at RCP?
However, Polls are like news media — people tend to gravitate to one or more they trust/resonnate. Don’t worry, CNN, ABC, and CBS polls still show oBOWma with numbers you will like better.
Here’s a couple of really, really fun excerpts from the article:
What a difference a year makes. And the winds of change are still gaining speed.
Obama’s fall from grace has been dramatic as he pushes unpopular policies from a health-care overhaul to 9/11 terror trials in New York. His approval is below 50 percent, and the man who rode the wave of public anger is now the focus of it. Even deep-blue states like New Jersey are falling out of love.
He has redivided the nation he promised to unite, and those who strongly oppose him outnumber those firmly in his corner. Independents and moderate Democrats are jumping ship, having concluded he was not honest about promises to govern from the center.
Even more surprising, Palin is the darling of discontent. Her book, “Going Rogue,” is a publishing sensation, selling 600,000 copies in two days. Thousands of people camp out overnight to buy the book and get her autograph.
She’s becoming the phenomenon Obama was a year ago.
This flip-flop in fortunes stems from many factors, war and recession chief among them. Yet ultimately, Obama has mostly himself to blame.
He’s aligned himself with the left wing of his party instead of the ordinary Americans who identify with Palin. His Ivy League eloquence seems tired next to her wrong-side-of-the-tracks passion.
That she could quit her job as governor and still rise from the dead is a testament to fury at Obama and his policies. She is probably not a viable 2012 candidate; then again, he’s not looking so hot himself.
His slide is prompting some beleaguered supporters to argue that expectations for his presidency were naively high. Laugh out loud at that one.
He set those expectations with messianic-like promises, such as the claim his election would mark “the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.”
Oh, and the phony stimulus job stats don’t pass the smell test.
Recent events perfectly capture his problem. Still undecided after reviewing Afghan policy for over three months, Obama opted for a bowing-and-scraping trip to Asia.
The long visit was a waste of time and showed “disturbing amateurishness in managing America’s power,” writes Leslie Gelb, a foreign-policy expert whose book aims to help guide Obama. Apparently, the president didn’t read it.
Obama then marked his return home with his 25th golf outing and a promise that “I will not rest until . . . businesses are hiring again and people have work again.”
He should get his rest. It’s the golf he should give up.
His choice of words at the Monday photo op was also revealing. His obsession with health-care bills surfaced as he saw an “urgent need for us to get to the finish line,” before conceding that most people are focused on “jobs and the economy.”
The giant is awakening!!!!!
Er, yeah. A few things to note:
1) This is a poll of what Rasmussen calls “likely voters”; not the general public, not registered voters, but “likely voters”. In that sense, it would be more accurate to say “Obamacare is not popular among Rasmussen’s defined universe of ‘likely voters'” as opposed to saying “Obama is not popular with the American people”, or “Obama’s Approval continues to crater.” I bet he is not popular in Alabama, either; but that ain’t “America” any more than the select universe Rasmussen polls is.
2) I am not sure that Rasmussen explains WHAT the “likely voters” are likely to vote for. Is this subset the group of people who are “likely” to vote in the 2010 congressional cycle, or the 2012 presidential race? Or is it defined based on the fact that they voted in 2008? And should we even care a year or three years out WHAT they are “likely” to vote for? Especially since you are measuring issues today based on what next year’s supposed “likely voters” think? Why not just say “left handed people support Obamacare at such and such a rate”? It would tell you as much as this “likely voters” stat tells you.
To the extent that conservatives use the Rasmussen polls to reinforce the “Obama is not popular” and “the public option is not popular” memes, you are engaging in a process of self-delusion and cherry-picking to reinforce your own wishful thinking.
@B-Rob: You might have a point there except for one FACT: EVERY OTHER OPINION POLL SHOWS OBAMA”S APPROVAL DROPPING:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
It’s a question of degrees but the bottom line is indisuputable.
Nice try BROB!
@B-Rob, the “likely voters” that you speculate about are the same “likely voters” that overwhelmingly approved of BO just 8 months ago, when he was proclaimed to be one of the most popular presidents in history. I’ll bet you didn’t have a problem with the “likely voters” definition then. That said your entire post is without merit.
@ Cornfed —
Wrong. I simply do not care what “likely voters” said about his popularity; all that mattered to me was what actually happened during the election. Contrary to the latest nutty conservative conspiracy theory, ACORN did not steal the election to the tune of a 200-some-odd electoral vote whitewashing McCain. Instead, Obama got the highest popular vote total ever and turned previously solid Red states like Virginia and Indiana blue. I know it pains you cons to admit this, but among the average American, Obama is well liked . . . which is why most people cringe when they see the insane posters at tea-bagger rallies.
@ Mike’s America —
Interesting you link to that graph now, having previously concluded that “Obama’s approval continues to crater”. Hmm . . . “crater” to anywhere from a +6 to a +17 in other polls.
Another thing — Rasmussen is an obvious outlier. If you drop is that the other RCP outlier, the average is a +7.7 spread. Yet what do you tout as the appropriate “measure” of Obama’s popularity? Why the most negative outlier! Having previously claimed Obama’s approval “continues to crater”, RCP undercuts your already shaky credibility.
Ahhh… the 70 year old prom queen still revels in her high school hey’day, despite the ravages of time and reality.
CRAP back with pointless points and tunnel vision again, I see. Why Rassmussen? Of the big three pollsters, Gallup, Zobgy and Rassmussen, the latter is the one with the best accuracy stats. Zogby second.
Zogby’s most recent “job approval” type poll was last conducted Oct 16th. To show the idiocy of the participants, they asked the same question two different ways, and got two wildly different results.
“Overall, do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job as president?”
Approve 49
Disapprove 51
“Overall, how would you rate President Obama’s performance on the job?”
Excellent (22) plus good (23) = 45
Fair (11) plus poor (44) = 55
Taking the Zogby extremes only, twice as many responders believe Obama is doing a poor job as those who believe he is doing an excellent job.
Gallup’s Nov look at the Zero’s approval shows the favorability trend dropping 21 points from inauguration. Conversely, his disapproval ratings have risen 33 points, from approx 11 to 44 in that same time period.
All polls note he’s losing support by larger margins than he’s clinging to it. Couldn’ta happened to a better fellow.
But then, I’m not a fan of polls. The only one that counts for me isn’t conducted until Nov 2010.
@ Mike’s America —
I have a question:
If you were given the choice between the U.S. having unemployment at 10.2% next October 30 (meaning we are still in the doldrums) or at 7% (meaning the economy has definately turned around) — which would you prefer?
@B-rob, I think I understand now, you didn’t care about “likely voters” then, but you care enough to post about them now. Are you related to john kerry?
@B-Rob: You’re doing your best to try and cover up the FACT that Obama’s popularity is cratering. But you are only grasping at straws and in the end, you are only deceiving yourself.
It’s too late in the season to be cherry picking. That pie must be awfully sour by now.
@ MataHarley —
Yours is what I would call a cherry-pick amongst cherry-picks. You took people who judged Obama as doing “fair” and put them in the “disapprove” catagory. W.t.f.? According to dictionary.com, the definition of “fair” is “neither excellent nor poor; moderately or tolerably good.” Fair is CLEARLY not a disapproval. If it is put where it SHOULD be, then the numbers are 55% rate him “moderately or tolerably good” or better, versus 44% who rate him poor. Hmm . . . that makes the Zogby poll seem more in line with CNN and ABC news, doesn’t it?
@ Cornfed —
only you could read a sentence that proclaims “I don’t care about ‘likely voters'” and presume that I actually DO care. It’s not based on any facts or logic, of course, just your “gut feel”, huh? Figures. No, son, the truth remains: the average middle American (“real America” if you will) likes Obama. They like him, they like his wife, and they like his kids. You conservatives, of course, are WAY out of the mainstream. You read that World Daily News and NewsMax b.s. and think it is actually true. And even worse, you have convinced yourselved that everyone agrees with you; but they don’t. And every once in a while, it takes hard numbers for you people to get a clue. But then the denial kicks in, and you search for anything that is consistent with your cluttered world-view. Hence bowing at the alter of the well-cooked Rasmussen numbers and proclaiming “America hates Obama”. Meh.
@ Mike’s America —
Let me put the numbers this way: GWB would have wished that his popularity “cratered” to a RCP average of +6.5 points. You used a splashy adjective “cratered”; the problem is that the actual numbers simply do not bear you out. Despite your best wishes, he remains above a 50% approval rating.
Now does he poll as well among the ever-shrinking GOP base? Er, no. Of course not. Why should he? They thought Bush was a GOOD PRESIDENT, for God’s sake. So why would anyone actually want THEIR approval?
Whatsamatter, guy… don’t like how the wide spread between the extremes of approval v disapproval plays out? Only an attorney can play the nuance game and expect it to alter the truth that the POTUS is losing support by a wider margin than he is maintaining it.
Note carefully: Those in the “fair” category are maintaining the status quo, as well as the “good” category from March in the Zogby data you are contesting. These are responders that were neither over or under whelmed by Obama.
However what you truly fail to accept in Zogby’s history is that the “excellent” approvals have dropped 8 points from March thru October (they have nothing more recent). The disapprovals have increased 10 points in the same period.
So I will repeat, trying to override your “it all depends upon what the meaning of “is”… is” attempt at whitewashing polls, Obama is losing support at a greater rate than he is hanging on to it. Increasing disapproval and losing approval is a mean downslide of notable proportions.
@ MataHarley —
I ask you the same question I asked Mike:
If you were given the choice between the U.S. having unemployment at 10.2% next October 30 (meaning we are still in the doldrums) or at 7% (meaning the economy has definitely turned around) — which would you prefer?
Of course I’d prefer the decline down to 7% and further decline. So are you going to try and convince us that the unemployment rate is declining, instead of on the increase over the next year? Then are you going to paint a rosy picture of what happens when Bernanke stops buying MBSs in March and the anticipated interest rate starts going up mid 2010?
Only the most foolhardy and gullible believe the WH spin that this is a “recovery” happening. We won’t know what goes on until the feds stop supporting the financial institutions and housing market, and the economy has to take it’s first steps without taxpayers propping it up on training wheels.
If you plan on running some pie in the sky economic data past us, I will say you are well out of your lawyerly specialty (which we’ve already determined is not Constitutional law). I suggest you have a read of yesterday’s NYTs article that is finally getting a clue from the financial news, as well as Moody’s giving a reality check to the housing recovery in September. So please spare yourself some unnatural spin on the WH’s fantasy economic recovery.
I assure you, B-Rob… I want what is best for this country, just as you do. We, however, define “best” in two completely different ways.
@B-Rob
If Rasmussen numbers should be dismissed. . .why was he so spot on in his 2009, 2008, and 2006 election forecasts? Why does the Rasmussen garner so much attention when the CNN, ABC, CBS polls are seldom featured except as the outliers at RCP?
However, Polls are like news media — people tend to gravitate to one or more they trust/resonnate. Don’t worry, CNN, ABC, and CBS polls still show oBOWma with numbers you will like better.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
Oh my, what have we here?
Here’s a couple of really, really fun excerpts from the article:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/barack_sarah_reversal_of_fortune_qwYN01s0X8byDUCjy3tcPP/1#ixzz0XtK1lJQS