When the IAF attacks, Iranian leaders have promised to unleash their missile force. Some intermediate-range ballistic missiles have a high probability of getting through anti-missile defenses and hitting Israeli population centers.
The 620-mile-range Iranian Shahab-3, a derivative of the North Korean No-dong series, is a powerful and dangerous missile. Like the V-2 barrage on London during World War II, innocent people will suffer but the nation will survive, and once an intermediate-range ballistic missile inventory is depleted, that threat is over and unless replenished, it ends.In an attack against hardened Iranian ground targets, the IAF will first have to neutralize Iranian air defenses, including Iran’s air force. Iran’s current air order of battle includes a mix of Russian, French, Chinese and U.S. design systems, though the actual number of combat-effective aircraft is a guess because of the lack of spare parts and limited insight into the training and tactics of Iranian fighter pilots. However, even older Iranian F-4s, F-14s, MiGs and Sukhois can make a nasty hash of Persian Gulf targets.
So the big unanswered question is: What do Russia, China and North Korea do to help their client? Does an IAF attack lead them to race in and provide arms to help Iran?
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Since the Israelis are the target of an Iranian extermination plan, they cannot afford the luxury of a Pollyana, cafe-debate world view like Obama thinks is so modern.
Israel can go-it-alone if she has to… the IDF probably has the military capacity already to not only bomb Iran, but win the wider Middle East war that is likely to result. Unlike vs. Hezbollah in 2006, the Israelis would fight this one to win, and win BIG… vs. Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and the rump Hamas. The IDF will go all-out with infantry and armor from day one, IMO
Team Obama would be well-advised to keep an eye on the horizon anytime they’re visiting their new pals in Tehran… for a formation of Israeli F-16’s coming-in at Mach 2. The IAF did us all a huge favor in 1983, taking out Saddam’s reactor in the face of world condemnation, and they’ll they’ll take care of business again- Israel is used to such misguided moralizing.
A humiliating attack upon Tehran’s crown-jewel nuclear program will likely topple this heinous regime… in other words, tiny Israel will be doing the job that our wormy president doesn’t have the courage or moral clarity to do. And Bibi will kick their a*s so hard they’ll be wearing it for a hat.
The Russians recent cancellation of S-300 AA missiles for Tehran on a request from Riyad seems to indicate that Kremlin support only goes so far- the Iranians don’t have the AA capacity they need without them.
The current administration will do what other like them has done before if the middle east flares up, they will sit there and do nothing while hoping it turns out positive so they can take some credit for remianing calm. Hell Carter and Clinton had many oppertunities to help stabilize the middle east and other parts of the world when conflict broke out, but Iran falling and Clinton watching the Bosnians slaughter each other didn’t budge them to do the right thing.
My money is on the IAF and IDF.
I guess it’s a good thing I’m not the president right now. My policy with regard to Israel would be to do what is necessary to secure their safety as a nation. Oh, and the supply ships are headed their way with what ever they needed.
There. Middle East problem solved.
Next: Eastern European security.
“The Russians recent cancellation of S-300 AA missiles for Tehran on a request from Riyad seems to indicate that Kremlin support only goes so far- the Iranians don’t have the AA capacity they need without them.”
I missed this story. Do you have a link to it?
Damned if you do, and damned if you don’t. Israel will go down swinging, if they go down.
What are they waiting on? I am sure they have strategic objectives that they have not seen necessary to tell Skookum; but I wish they would start the dance. I am tired of that little pinhead strutting around like a Banty rooster with three huevos.
Remember Obie’s deep bow to the Saudi king? If the Saudis can get Putin and company to cancel missiles to Teheran, what might they get Obiewon to do?
Thanks to divine providence, the Iranians are minus their only AWACS plane. The Israelis might get some help from an unlikely source if the Saudis think Imadinnerjacket will set the whole Middle East aglow and contaminate the Islamic holy sites for future generations of Haj pilgrims.