Iran has successfully blackmailed us. Iranian Silkworm missiles could close down Gulf oil exports in a matter of minutes, taking about 17 million barrels a day of oil off world markets. Americans could suddenly be looking at the prospect of $10-$12 for a gallon of gas. If the collapse of Wall Street doesn’t push us into a depression, that would. And Bush is right: An angered Iran could punish us with thousands of extra casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan, as Iranian-trained, armed and funded fighters flow back into the war zones with a vengeance.
So, giving the go ahead to Israel would just not be worth it.
But none of this changes the fact that Israel – on its own, without U.S. complicity – is moving closer to a decision to attack Iran, almost by the day.
Bob Baer’s a pretty knowledgable, and very well accepted source by both the left and right. However, what’s really important in this piece is that last line about Israel on its own doing the attack. If that happens, the world will change within minutes, and it will happen so fast that no 24/7 cable news outlet will be capable of reporting it. Why? Because the military pieces on the chess board are not just in place, but have already moved into attack/defend positions. They are as close as they can be without throwing hardware in the air, and when that happens, flight times are minutes and seconds.
…and one wonders how Iran, Obama, and McCain will react.
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Here’s the other side of this coin:
If Iran shuts down the strait, they will only be signing their death warrant. That goes double if they get involved again in Iraq. When the world suffers under the high gas prices then Iran will find itself short of allies.
At that point they will be dealt with once and for all.
I have to agree with Hard Right, the only fly in the ointment would be, that they are bat shiite crazy. I think that hatred for Israel could cause them to commit suicide.
Well, if this all happens I pray we have a real leader in the White House like John McCain. I was so impressed with this add:
http://salesianity.blogspot.com/2008/09/john-mccain-american-hero.html
What would a community organizer do i a crisis?
When the world suffers under the high gas prices then Iran will find itself short of allies
Even more to the point, they themselves are *highly* dependent on foreign oil revenue. Iran’s economy will fold like a paper cup if they do this, even before the loss of allies becomes relevant. The nations currently in their corner (China and Russia, more or less, though I wouldn’t call them ‘allies’ exactly) would be affected differently by high oil prices anyway: Russia probably wouldn’t give a damn, they are a net exporter of oil for the moment and would make out like bandits if Iran closed the straits. China of course would be badly hurt.
looking at the prospect of $10-$12 for a gallon of gas
Even a complete loss of 17million bbl/day of oil is not likely to drive gas prices this high. If you assume world demand elasticity of 1/5 (which is probably a little low, so exaggerates the price response) then this loss would only double the price of oil per barrel to let’s say $230, which adds about $4 per gallon to the price of gas. That’s if the government doesn’t tap the strategic reserve, and I’m thinking they would.
Although I agree with Hard Right, what also needs to be consider is this:
Ahmadinejad believes that it his holy duty to usher in the hidden Iman. Destroying Iran and the Persian people along with many Molsems will, in his belief, finally release the Iman from the well and bring about the paradise promised by the prophet Mohammed. The extermination of Isreal would be as the sacrifice and gift to Allah.
Well, if Obama is elected, Israel will be forced to attack Iran out of self-preservation. There is no other way around it. Maybe not right away, but once those “meetings without pre-conditions” go down the tubes and Iran is emboldened, Israel will be forced to defend herself sooner or later.
halfacarafe, I thought the destruction of Israel would bring out the Imam. I didn’t think Iran had to go. That’s scary.
I agree with both halfacarafe and Ratan X. For Mahmood, it’s a win-win situation whether Iran bombs Israel first or Israel bombs Iran first.
And if Obama wins the election, the Israelis will be left with no choice because one of the first things Obama will do is remove any US presence in the Gulf region, then pander, pander, pander to Mahmood and every other tinpot dictator in the name of “peace”. There will be no restraining hand on either Hizbullah or Hamas, leaving Israel in a three-way squeeze.
If Obama is elected, Bush will attack Iran in November. If McCain is elected, Bush will let the decision to him. We know Iran will get the nuclear facilities within 1 to 3 years. When they do, Israel, USA and the Western World will be in great danger. We have to act before them. If not, when Iran acts, everyone will ask themselves HOW could the USA let this be.
Some links:
This great video:
Norman Podhoretz
http://fora.tv/2007/11/30/Uncommon_Knowledge_Norman_Podhoretz
For Mahmood, it’s a win-win situation whether Iran bombs Israel first or Israel bombs Iran first.
Yeah, sure. As with all the ‘Ahmadinejad is *sooooo* crazy’ theories, there’s this problem explaining his failure to actually commit these self-destructive acts as yet. I might add that if he is indeed this kind of fanatic it matters little whether you have ‘talks with preconditions’ or ‘talks without preconditions’ or no talks at all, unless it’s just political appearances you’re worried about.
Hard Right
It is not necessary for the destruction of Iran for the Iman to appear. That is just a side note. The Iman will appear at the necessary time when the world is ready to accept Islam. Ahmadinejad believes he is the person required to bring in the hidden Iman. If the destruction of Iran or half of the middle east happens in the details, the point being the Iman will have returned to the world.
Once again, the US is in a major crisis due to actions and inactions by the dnc, the MSM and eurostan. And as usual, the dnc and the MSM succeed in placing the blame, not where it belongs, but upon President Bush, his Administration, Republicans, Conservatives, Christians and Israel.
The dangers this nation, and the world, face are continuing to mount. Yet, a public, US and those throughout most of the world, mislead by lies, distortions, twisted and manipulated data and facts, look down their noses at those who are willing to take the necessary steps to save us all.
By constantly working to destroy the efforts of the US military in Iraq, the dnc, the MSM and eurostan has emboldend terrorists to continue the efforts. It has also encouraged Russia to look at rebuilding its former “empire”. It has already taken some steps in that direction. Russia, China and eurostan have stood in the way of the US to take actions against iran, N. Korea and in other areas that would give the civilized world the opportunity to shut down much of the terrorists network. And we can thank our own dnc and MSM for their inevitable contributions to the terrorists and rouge nations.
Due to the manner in which the dnc, MSM and eurostan have succeeded in deceiving the world’s population, Russia has begun to rebuild its military and political strength. With the aide and encouragement of Russia, Iran and N. Korea have brushed aside threats of sanctions, knowing that Russia will provide the resources necessary to keep the efforts of these rogue nations going toward the development of a nuclear arsenal. Do not be surprised to learn that soon chavez will announce similar efforts in Venezuela; Bolivia may follow soon after.
If Israel were to strike iran and succeed in destroying the majority of iran’s nuclear program, the US MIGHT then be in a stronger position to destroy the facilities in N. Korea. Words, sanctions and other political efforts will have no bearing on what these nations do. They will respond ONLY to a military attack that severely hampers their efforts. As for iran, a military strike that severely damages its “face” in the islamic CULT world is the only way to cause it to step back from the brink of world destruction. Worshiping in a CULT that is so morally corrupt to accept the destruction of millions of lives of those who refuse to bow to the CULT as a means to Heaven grants the leaders with followers who never question what they are told to do. These “leaders” and “followers” are so mentally and morally corrupt that they refuse to see the evil of their ways. Much the same as the followers of the vile and despicable Hitler. For those who believe in reincarnation, a question: Was Hitler mo hamm ed reincarnated?
Yet, it is not the very real threat to the survival of the world that concerns so many, it is the “nasty” United States of America. When citizens of your own nation would rather see the world destroyed or dominated by communism, fascism, islamofascism, etc than to live as a free democracy, we must begin an all out effort to ensure than NO member of the dnc is ever elected to any office again. We must follow up that effort by forcing the removal of Anti-American garbage that corrupts the minds and will of students in our nations schools, colleges and universities. What we will find as comical about this is that right now, these institutions are continuing in their efforts to ensure that Republicans, Conservatives, Christians and Jews are removed and/or prevented from acquiring a position and would call our efforts as unConstitutional. We MUST return Christianity and Judaism to our lives.
Just like the US, Israel has been infected by the left. It will meekly surrender its national existence to Islamic terrorists. A shame and a lesson to us in the danger of the radical left.
Egnima 47,
I agree with you all the way. USA has to do something about Iran, otherwise, Israel will. Obama will never do anything except make it worse. I hope Israel will attack Iran’a nuclear facilities. They have the best pilot in the World.
Have you ever seen this extraordinary video?
RAID ON THE REACTOR
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2295792449224502914