Your telling me CNN would put up a biased poll as fact? Get outta here:
Buried way, way down at the bottom of the story — hopefully, one surmises, past the point where anyone would read — is the following:
The results may be favoring Obama simply because more Democrats than Republicans tuned in to the debate. Of the debate-watchers questioned in this poll, 41 percent of the respondents identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent as Republicans and 30 percent as independents.
I’m far from being a polling expert, but this is obviously a slanted poll. A 14-point split between Republican and Democrat respondents? And what percentage of those “independents” were leaners for Obama?
That’s bad enough, but the really egregious part is CNN’s blatant reportage of opinion as fact, which allowed the creation of a news story announcing Obama’s victory.
Some would argue that hey, most CNN viewers are Democrats so they just polled their viewers. True enough. But Fox also had a poll in which 82% of their viewers thought McCain won. Did you see any headline story about the poll from Fox?
Nope….
See author page
Fox usually tries to hide anything not positive for McCain. Even conservative pollster Frank Luntz’s study group favored Obama in the debate.
They didn’t hide anything. That poll was discussed a couple of times on Fox and Friends this morning, the news cycle has since moved on. Now they are discussing whether Republicans will be able to get the ACORN funding out of the bail out bill that the democrats snuck in. More on ACORN at 5, should be interesting.
Well, gee, that’s a BIG difference from CNN’s 14 point difference and FOX news ‘text messaging poll’ that found the winner was McCain by 66 points! That’s probably why they didn’t post it …anywhere. CNN wisely stated their sample may be biased, as it’s not wildly off the mark like FOX or Drudges numbers.
Secondly, the CNN poll was a telephone poll. You didn’t have to watch it ON CNN. That’s why it’s not WAY off the mark.
Thirdly, it MOE was 4.5% — pretty big. So if you shaved off 4 points it would bring it down to 10, a more reasonable number.
But the real story are these early indy polls, they are the ones to watch, as they will probably decide the election:
If you look at the CBS ‘uncommitted voters poll’, they have an 18% margin where Obama won over McCain.
If you look at the MediaCurves focus group on ‘independents’ they gave a win to Obama by 22 points.
http://www.mediacurves.com/
The gist is these early polls appear to indicate that the undecided/non-partisan-party or indy voters are going for Obama.
Looking at the larger picture, with the above numbers in mind, they make sense, as …
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This six-point advantage matches Obama’s biggest lead yet (see trends). Obama is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 54%.
Seems to fit.
Uh, Fit fit, there is a difference between what FNC and CNN did. CNN’s is a “real” poll, and FNC did a viewer vote item. They never touted it as a scientific poll as CNN is.
As to who won? I’ve talked to some lefties today that are middle-aged and above, and they say McCain was a clear winner. Obama came across as an “ass” with his smirking, over pronunciation, and posturing (which may play well with 20somethings, but doesn’t fly with those above 30 unless they are dolts).
Later,
Sam S.
I hope my post will not be taken as an insult. I really would like to understand. I can see fantastic threads here on this blog and on NO QUARTER and other blogs. Extraordinary information… facts…reality… etc. And you should all be very proud of it.
My question is: How come polls shows a small margin for Obama popularity? What’s wrong with American voters? Are they so ignorant of the facts? How come they don’t see that Obama is a fraud? How come they do not know that the financial crisis was cause by the Dems?
Tell me how many Americans have acces to your blog and other blogs who speaks the truth? How many American sees the videos that are presented here and elsewhere? How come there are still people like Fit Fit, Doug and Real American Patriot? Why do they hate their country so much? I do not understand. Could they be Muslims… islamists? Something is wrong. How can American voters be so misinformed? I know the MSM are biased, but with all the blogs on internet, how come it doesn’t correct that bad information? Please, can someone explain me? You are doing such a great job here… to bad that it seems all in vain. I am stunned by American’s ignorance. How can you spread your great information all over your country? When I see poll saying Obama won the debate, I am in shock. Never thaught American were so ignorant… never!
Craig, don’t trust the polls. They’ve been the one consistent element in this entire Presidential campaign: they’ve always been off. When the margin’s close, that means it’s just too close to call, and if there’s a storm front of cold, ugly weather from Michigan, to Ohio, to Pennsylvania, then the entire thing could go McCain’s way just because of the weather (yes, weather can change voter turnout by a few percent points).
If half the people don’t get it…
remember that half the people do.
Craig:
I made an almost identical comment to Mata some time ago. It is totally beyond me how regardless of how empty is the suit that sits on Obama, there are those who likely would vote for Satan himself if a D appears after his name.
I don’t know if your ever go this site: http://www.rushlimbaugh.com, but this guy is a genius. He had a radio commentary yesterday about the White House meeting and what happened during that meeting. What happened is beyond the pale.
Then Dingy Harry and old Chris walk out to the podium and make the statement that McCain interjected ‘presidential politics’ into the meeting. I invite you to read this.
I cannot believe that the polls are correct, and after last night, people who really think Obama ‘won’ are downright idiots.
This is a great blog….hope more people log on.
Thanks Scott. So I guess that half of the people who don’t get it are the one with less education… and usually those people don’t care much about going voting. That’s good news.
CNN Communist News Network is in the tank for Obama.
Pollsters can minpulate the outcome anyway they want too.
WOW, Steve! That: http://www.rushlimbaugh.com… looks like a good one. I will look through it intensively… thanks.
Is this site well known to American’ voters? Sure hope so. Somebody has to expose the biased MSM… they are harmful, irresponsible and scary.
Craig:
RUSH: All right, Rasmussen daily tracking poll. Sandy in Chicago, you’re not going to like this. But it’s the news. “Daily Rasmussen tracking poll Friday,” today, “shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote, McCain earns 45. This is Obama’s biggest lead since his convention bounce peaked with a six-point advantage. New data shows McCain’s lead is down to a single percentage point in Ohio and Florida. He leads by eight in West Virginia. Obama with a modest advantage of Pennsylvania. Virginia update released later. Obama now leads by five among unaffiliated voters. Last week, the unaffiliated voters were leaning in the McCain’s direction. Stunning,” says Rasmussen, “to note how rapidly the dynamics of the campaign have changed. Two weeks ago, just before the Wall Street financial crunch became visible McCain was up by three points in the aftermath of his convention. A week ago today, the candidates were even. Now Obama’s lead is approaching new highs.”
Insanity! Total insanity!
Craig, yes, Rush’s site is available on the world wide web to anyone who logs in. It is incredible how well he reads these people and knows what they are thinking before they themselves do.
It a sick feeling, truly, but as the saying goes, “The people do the electing and they deserve what they get.”
I’ll believe that the people of this country are as insane as the polls indicate when Barack Hussein Obama’s name is on the doorplate to the oval office and the Lincoln bedroom is decorated with the latest upholstery stolen from the Comfort Inn Suites just inside the beltway.
SEE HOW OBAMA FALSIFIES ANY POLL… you have to read this.
HERE IS THE METHOD HE GIVES TO ACHIEVE IT:
– Once you go to the link you can vote for Obama .
– Then you can vote again more then one time if you wish.
– Step one go to http://www.aol.com/
– To vote for Obama more then once in your State on the Aol Straw Poll go to: wwww.aol.com/
– Then Internet Options then Settings and or go to Internet(Web)Options then press
Internet Explorer Settings on the upper right side.
Step 1.) Press delete button on Browsing History first.
Step 2.) Tempory Files press Delete
Step 3.) Cookies Press Delete
Step 4.) History Press Delete
Step 5.) At bottom Press Ok and you can Vote for Obama Again.
Once you have voted again you need to do this process all over again which takes about 2 minutes.
Please pass this on all over Obama Country and lets get the Aol Presidential Poll Map for Obama . (Obama 08)
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/democracynow2008/gGCgS5/commentary
Craig,
That method of cheating has been around for quite some time. I used to post at the vote.com forum years ago. While voting for certain issues, people would comment in the forum. We were often told that they were sent by other forums or were e-mailed and told to go vote on that issue, some admitted that they voted several times using the above described method by deleting cookies. Vote.com sends the results of the polling to members of Congress. You can still vote for different issues, there’s a poll up now that shows McCain won, eventually the forum was attacked by trolls and shut down. It’s owned by Dick Morris.
http://www.vote.com/vResults/index.phtml
Yes, weather can change turnout. Polls are not an exact science, they can’t ‘predict’ an outcome.
However, to simply brush them off is naive. To ignore their ability to be probable indicators is ignore social science and statistics, to run a campaign on hunches, to go back to days before mass communication and computers. Anybody that was watching the primaries knows that.
You state bad weather, in the rust belt, could make the election ‘go McCain’s way’. Could you explain to me how those areas that are more rural, less urban, who would find it harder to get out, get to the polls, who might inclined to vote for McCain, who might be older, much older, would help it ‘go McCain’s way’, when they are the group that would be impacted more by the weather?
Also, why would it “go McCain’s way,” given that everything we have been learning in this election about party commitments to each candidate we find Obama has a deeper committed following.
What am i missing, Scott?
“What am i missing?” (Doug)
You are missing to recognize that Obama is a fraud. With all the information you can get on this site, if you didn’t see it so far… you are a hopelessly blind.
I take it you are not living in a “rural” area. Folks living in the country tend to be pretty sturdy little Republicans used to doing for themselves even if age has crept up.
Weather won’t stop them from voting, it’s something they take great pride in. Some also car pool or have their family members drive them.
How do I know? I was raised in the country, we also have had a farm in Missouri since 85, we don’t live there, but we’ve made many friends over the years during our stays, it’s a help each other out, very rural area. They are still hand painting their campaign signs, God love them!
Doug, I agree they’re not to be dismissed as a whole if there’s a sizable enough difference, but when they’re up/down and vary per poll and the trend is w/in the margin…then I say they’ve proven unreliable in this Presidential campaign. That’s the only point I was trying to make. Dunno how the rust belt will go. Some days it’s red, others blue. Too close.
McCain did better than expected. I am excited about the upcoming VP debate. That should be interesting. Here is Sarah Palin for you – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woIKv7NzXLE
If the polls were truly accurate there is no doubt McCain would be doing better, if not leading outright. However if you intend to get a candidate elected by fraud as the DNC is doing then it better not raise suspicions–you need the polls and media declaring Obama ahead and the frontrunner so no one will suspect.
Gallup says public believes Obama won debate:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110779/Debate-Watchers-Give-Obama-Edge-Over-McCain.aspx
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/09/diageohotline_t_12.html
The polls are indicating Obama won the debate.
zzzzzzz….
again, Doug, who cares and so what? Debates are not “won and lost” based on media score cards. The public decides that. And speak only for yourself, please.
And oh, BTW… 904 people’s opinion …41% of Dems va 36% Reps and 19% self-professed (if registered voters at all.. do they show proof?) “Indy”s? Ummmm. population of the nation is 300 mil. Not sure of the latest breakdown of adults vs kids, nor participating voters vs non.
All I can say is ask 904 uninformed people a question, and you’ll get 904 uninformed answers. Only poll that counts is November.
I repeat… so what? Celebrate now, Doug… you happy days could be limited. Ya never know.
No one ever polls me.
dont let obama fool you ! when obama told you 95 % will get tax cut and if you believe it , will you got fool by obama the chicago politics machine. get the fact ! its a welfare its not a tax cut obama make it sound good just to get your vote …the truth is he will raise your capital gain tax from 15% to 28% what thats means is if you own a house and if you sell it and you make a profit of 60.000 dollars obama will get 28 % of that ! mccain will not raise it. fact check that .
On another thread, ‘Let Sarah be Sarah,’ MH said:
Yet, Obama didn’t win because he didn’t lose. All the post polls out now are indicating a larger percentage of the public thinks he won. Now we have Pew’s chiming in, too:
No case can be made now that Obama “”won” because he didn’t lose.” Gallop, Pew, CBS, Quinnipiac and Diageo all find Obama won over the public more than McCain.
Round one goes to Obama. Therefore, look for the McCain camp to try a different tactic next time. Perhaps McCain will even look at Obama, give him eye contact.
Interesting Doug. Got a link to the Pew poll itself? I’d like to know how many of those polled actually watched the debates, and how many just listened to the talking heads prounounce Obama the winner in the aftermath… LOL
Like I said, you and Mike can quote polls until the steam pours from your ears. The only poll that counts to me is on Nov. Until then, ask 1000 uninformed people a question, and you’ll get 1000 uninformed answers. What about the other 150 mil or so that vote?
Unless you have a national vote now, amongst the viewers who watched the debate themselves, I suspect you’ll never know who “won”. And frankly, I think it’s a disservice to the nation for talking heads to prounounce winners and losers. They do not think for me. They do not decide for me.
All polls function as is propaganda. The sheeple figure if everyone thinks that’s true, how can it be wrong? Hate polls. Always will. But then, what would those bozos do for a living if there were no polls?
I had to watch one of the CNN post debate polls a couple of times, but in one video they actually told the viewers it was biased. Only not in so many words.
Here comes the fun part:
They said that 40% of those polled were Democrats, 25% claimed to be Republican, presumably the rest were Independent. So if you break it down and consider that 40% of the general populous are Democrat & 40% are Republicans, therein lies the explanation. So if one calculates the mathematics out even without the independents, Obama should have won the debate by their poll by a full 15%. He didn’t, He won it by 13%. That means that independents are not 50-50, but swinging towards McCain.
Similar creative math appears in the Gallop poll, where Obama beat McCain 46% to 34%.
Okay let’s play like the big boy networks and do some fussy math:
Well there is a slight problem with this. That totals to 80%. Of those polled, only 63% even watched the debate. 37% decided who won the debate without even seeing it. 12% claiming they saw news coverage of it, which of course would have been mostly biased, since of all the network news shows, only Fox said McCain won. So we have 63+12=75. Notice that does not equal the 80%. Most people are honest enough that they are not going to declare a winner on a debate they never saw and if they thought it were close, would not announce either as the winner. Obamites are not so honest. So if we take the 37% who did not see it and just to be fair subtract the 12% who saw coverage of it that leaves us with 25%. Taking into consideration the 40% Dem/40% Rep/20% Ind cross section of people that would make the non watching Obamites 10%. we subtract that from Obama’s 46% and we get 36% Obama to 34% McCain. Well within the margin of error.
But wait, now let’s look again at that 12%. For sake of argument let’s say that 12 percent got their coverage from 2%-Fox, 2%-CNN, 2%-MSNBC, 2%-CBS, 2%-ABC, 2%-NBC. Fox & CNN offset each other. So we deduct the 8% bias from the Obama percentage and McCain won the debate 32% to Obama’s 28% & 3% of those who actually watched the debate were undecided.
check. I agree.
Camel crap. Pelosi has absolutely NOTHING to do in bearing gifts for McCain. Her election season mask slipped out… and what were the consequences??? where??? …Yes, there wasn’t a passage of the Bail-out Bill in the House the first time …so what?! There is no evidence for this thesis that Obama’s camp has had a set-back due to Pelosi’s “gift.”
More crap. The “vast majority of Americans” have made up their minds. It’s the undecided/independent voters, those sheep late to the barn, still hanging out the fields, that are the hold-outs.
NO. now McCain’s down 6-7 points with two debates to go (Palin winning, by only not meeting expectations) and the lastest NBC-WSJ post stating:
“Independent voters are starting to swing behind Barack Obama and Joe Biden, who continue to benefit from economic turmoil and the public response to their debate performances, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.”
How’s that for a more realistic account of “McCain having wind in his face”?
McCain is running out of time, energy and a clear message. Obama’s camp is beating him bloody as a Bush clone.
And what does McCain put out: “Obama is a terrorist”
THIS. WON’T. WORK.
Why? Hewitt can tell you. The MSM has decided they don’t like McCain; they’d rather have Obama.
Silly polls, every day is a different day.
Look out doug1, new CBS poll:
“(CBS) In a sign that the race for president has returned to about where it was before the first presidential debate, the Obama-Biden ticket leads the McCain-Palin ticket 47 percent to 43 percent among registered voters in a new CBS News poll.
The Obama-Biden ticket led by a wider margin, nine percentage points, in a CBS News poll released last Wednesday, before Joe Biden and Sarah Palin faced off in the vice presidential debate. Obama-Biden led by five percentage points on Sept. 25.
In the new poll, the Democratic ticket leads by 3 percentage points, 48 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters. ”
Within the margin of error among “LIKELY VOTERS” you know, unlike “REGISTERED VOTERS” LIKELY voters are the ones that actually vote.