I figured this kind of reporting wouldn’t see the light of day until a Democrat got into office but I was proven wrong. From the Wall Street Journal:
As recession fails to materialize, economists revise predictions
A funny thing happened to the economy on its way to recession: It has taken a detour.
That, at least, is the view of a growing number of economists, including some who not long ago were saying a recession was all but inevitable.
They note that stock and credit markets have steadily improved since the Federal Reserve intervened to keep Bear Stearns Cos. from bankruptcy in early March, while a series of economic reports have been stronger than expected.
….. “A couple months ago it seemed like we were on the abyss,” said Jay Bryson, global economist with Wachovia Corp., referring to the seizing up of credit markets and the collapse of Bear Stearns. “Things have changed. . . . The numbers we’ve seen recently haven’t been as bad as we were led to believe just a few months ago.”
….. Job losses, meanwhile, have been less severe than they usually are in recessions. Many economists think the government’s earliest estimate of first-quarter GDP growth – 0.6 percent – will be revised upward. After reviewing the retail-sales data, economists at Global Insight, a Waltham, Mass.-based forecasting firm, predicted the government would increase its assessment of GDP growth in the first quarter to 1 percent at an annual rate. They forecast continued growth in consumer spending, partly because of tax rebates and stimulus checks.
In February, Global Insight joined Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS and Merrill Lynch in declaring the U.S. to be in recession. Now, Global Insight’s Brian Bethune says that while the firm is still forecasting a recession, “it’s conceivable we could avoid it” …..
Add this positive report to the news that “U.S. home builders broke ground on 8.2% more homes in April, led by a 36% increase in multi-family units, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.”
And:
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Friday that financial markets are “considerably calmer” now than they were two months ago. He predicted the economy will be rebounding by the second half of this year.
In a speech to business executives in Washington, Paulson said the drag from housing, which he characterized as still the biggest risk to the economy, will soon be lessened by nearly $100 billion in economic stimulus payments to U.S. households.
“The fiscal stimulus will provide support to the economy as we weather the housing correction, capital markets turmoil and higher energy and food prices,” Paulson said in his prepared remarks.
But as Newsbusters notes, much of the MSM is still in its “sky is falling” mode….at least until Bush is out of office.
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Those of us with long memories recall that in 1992 Bill Clinton succesfully sold the big lie that things were so bad that it was the “worst economy in 50 years.”
And after Democrats had succesfully scared enough people into believing that lie and Clinton was elected Democrats miraculously discovered that it was the BEST economy in 50 years.
It’s no wonder they are trying to pull the same trick now.
I think this is due to three things. The U.S. has moved to a service sector economy while it’s manufacturing that gets hit hard during a recession. Some manufactoring places in the U.S. are in a recession and have been for decades. That’s because it’s easier to move people thn it is a manufacturing infrastructure.
There is too much “fire” in the world economy. Any recession would just melt. If you add the number of rich and middle class of India, that number would be greater than the population of the U.S. and that’s just one country.
The U.S. work force is getting old. In the next 12 years or so 78 million Americans would have turned over 65 years old. Right now there are 6 million unemployed at any one time. Even if whole companies go under and 40% (the number saying they will continue to work) still work, the gap between the unemployed and the number of workers leaving is still great.
Drew Carry seems a very nice man, but, form a mysterious reason that lurks in the back of my mind, Drew Carry always repulsed me. From my view there was something about his style, the jokes or what he thought was comedy and those in his audience that enjoyed that kind of stand up comedy embraced a near oppression or social behavior exploiting “Dramaturgy”, it self a sense of a neurotic guide through social actions. Sort of like not knowing, and all of a sudden you are dealing with imbeciles, morons, or idiots.
Making it funny to encourage the audience in accepting character oppression is one way to put the act. Dramaturgical theory suggests that a person’s identity is not a stable and independent psychological entity. Drew carry is part of a popular movement on the public electromagnetic domain that needs to be documented for the Internet University system. Here, as a possible serious suggestible social disorder in the form of comedy. Creating what America alarmingly has an abundance of “Junk Television”.
So, here we have the master of oppressive anxiety in creating a huge audience already able to accept oppression to believe just with pictures and what one says everything is alright with the economy. That’s funny.
The last issue of INC. magazine expressed the real fact that just about half of the States in America will be working in deficit spending by the end of 2008. America more then half of our working government will not be taking in enough taxes to support many services. Four to five large states are expressed as being the worst, New York, California, Texas, and Illinois. These are big players in industry and commerce. Imagine they all can not pay their bills. If anything with all the serious disasters America is dealing with in bad weather, America is not in a growth economy, those numbers we see and the experts know very well are just for a “replacement economy” not growth.
If you believe Drew carry for anything he says, my friend has a bag of magic beans he is willing to sell you that will turn into gas, and you will never have to buy gas again. Give me just twenty bucks and I will be right back with the magic beans.
It seems that all of the Media, try to spin everything; with the fervor and passionate intensity of an Elmer Gantry. Whether Republican, Democrat, Independent, Conservative or Liberal, the path to power and influence lies through: a little truth, and a grand performance (of heroic, self righteous indignation). The future of our economy is heavily mortgaged and hard times do come now and again. Someday, the payments may reset beyond our means to pay and then:
Things fall apart; the center cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
William Butler Yeats
Nope. Don’t even need to have the MSM to state the sky is falling. The National Bureau of Economic Research stated today our economy has been in recession since December 2007:
And bush not out of office.