Posted by Curt on 17 May, 2008 at 7:31 pm. 5 comments already!


I figured this kind of reporting wouldn’t see the light of day until a Democrat got into office but I was proven wrong. From the Wall Street Journal:

As recession fails to materialize, economists revise predictions

A funny thing happened to the economy on its way to recession: It has taken a detour.

That, at least, is the view of a growing number of economists, including some who not long ago were saying a recession was all but inevitable.

They note that stock and credit markets have steadily improved since the Federal Reserve intervened to keep Bear Stearns Cos. from bankruptcy in early March, while a series of economic reports have been stronger than expected.

….. “A couple months ago it seemed like we were on the abyss,” said Jay Bryson, global economist with Wachovia Corp., referring to the seizing up of credit markets and the collapse of Bear Stearns. “Things have changed. . . . The numbers we’ve seen recently haven’t been as bad as we were led to believe just a few months ago.”

….. Job losses, meanwhile, have been less severe than they usually are in recessions. Many economists think the government’s earliest estimate of first-quarter GDP growth – 0.6 percent – will be revised upward. After reviewing the retail-sales data, economists at Global Insight, a Waltham, Mass.-based forecasting firm, predicted the government would increase its assessment of GDP growth in the first quarter to 1 percent at an annual rate. They forecast continued growth in consumer spending, partly because of tax rebates and stimulus checks.

In February, Global Insight joined Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS and Merrill Lynch in declaring the U.S. to be in recession. Now, Global Insight’s Brian Bethune says that while the firm is still forecasting a recession, “it’s conceivable we could avoid it” …..

Add this positive report to the news that “U.S. home builders broke ground on 8.2% more homes in April, led by a 36% increase in multi-family units, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.


Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Friday that financial markets are “considerably calmer” now than they were two months ago. He predicted the economy will be rebounding by the second half of this year.

In a speech to business executives in Washington, Paulson said the drag from housing, which he characterized as still the biggest risk to the economy, will soon be lessened by nearly $100 billion in economic stimulus payments to U.S. households.

“The fiscal stimulus will provide support to the economy as we weather the housing correction, capital markets turmoil and higher energy and food prices,” Paulson said in his prepared remarks.

But as Newsbusters notes, much of the MSM is still in its “sky is falling” mode….at least until Bush is out of office.

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