The “Cease Fire”

From Juan Cole, tacit admission that the government is continuing “arbitrary” cleanup ops (and hence must’ve won):

Al-A’raji, for his part, stressed that the situation on the ground did not reflect the agreement reached between the government and the Al-Sadr trend. He said arbitrary arrests were still taking place against the Sadrists and houses continued to be burned, noting that that was a “violation of the agreement.” Al-A’raji criticized the government’s “double-standards” as politicians say one thing and the military commanders say another. A’raji also confirmed that weapons were now in the hands of the government as supporters of Al-Sadr heeded the cleric’s call.

I’m guessing the “weapons” refers to the “medium and heavy weapons” Maliki demanded be turned in . . . and seems to imply they were being turned in, though I haven’t seen that reported elsewhere.

Looks like a dramatic victory over the Mahdi Army by the government forces. Even Juan Cole couldn’t spin it otherwise. The Iraqi Army fought, the crooked police were “relieved of duty”, and Mooki is complaining about the “unfairness” of the truce instead of declaring it null and void. The only thing left for the Democrats to do is to cherish the fond memories of the “resistance” and how it “surprised” Maliki’s generals. US: 1, Rats: 0.

That sure a terse report, John Ryan. I’d be left wanting, but I checked on Nibras Kazimi’s take over at Talisman Gate yesterday and got, what I feel, a more honest assessment of it all.

Bottom line, I doubt there’s any fat lady singing on stage for Basra as of yet, but it looks like the first rounds fall into Maliki’s corner.

Here’s another perspective on the fragility of the ‘cease fire’:

Thousands of police officers who refused to fight Sadr are given the sack

Azzaman, March 31, 2008

Interior Minister Jawad Boulani has ordered the dismissal of thousands of police members and officers who allegedly refused orders to take part in the fight against the militiamen of cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

The decision covers most of the police force in the predominantly Shiite neighborhoods of Baghdad and also several cities in the southern Iraq including Basra where most of the recent fighting took place.

The government’s crackdown on Mahdi Army, the military arm of the Sadr movement in the country, which started a few days ago, came to a halt yesterday.

Several cities in southern Iraq among them Baghdad and Basra were placed under tight curfews as battles between the militiamen and government troops raged.

U.S. occupation troops backed the government in its bid to disarm the militias.

But the Mahdi Army has once again emerged intact as the ceasefire announced yesterday does not call for the militiamen to surrender their weapons.

Thousands of police officers were reported to have refused fighting the militiamen and at least two army regiments joined them with their weapons in Baghdad.

More troops were said to have sided with the militiamen in Basra.

The move to sack police and army personnel sympathizing with Sadr is a risky step as it might derail the already fragile ceasefire.

The exact numbers of those who are covered by the move are not known but analysts say they should involve thousands of police officers and troops.

The analysts say those sacked will have no choice but to join the ranks of Mahdi Army with their weapons, boosting the militia’s strength and standing.

The recent fighting is said to have claimed more than 240 lives in the country since fighting began on Tuesday.

http://www.azzaman.com/english/index.asp?fname=news2008-03-31kurd.htm

The Iraqi Army and police deserting to the Mahdi Army with their weapons and supplies illustrates how tenuous governmental allegiance remains and consequently calls into question also prospects for a long-term ceasefire.

To make matters more interesting, we learn today that “[Maliki] announced a seven-point plan to stabilize [Basra by] …recruiting 10,000 more police and army forces from local tribes.”
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=49835&sectionid=351020201

How the quality of the vetting will be better than the last time, as evidenced from past days, is dubious. When 70-80% of Iraqis oppose a US occupation, what kind of vetting process, can beat those numbers?

Another ingredient in this recipe is, if one recalls, that Maliki has stated that no more than 20% of the Sunni Awakenings fighters were to be incorporated into the army and police– as they simply were not necessary and it would be costly. Yet now, here in Basra, Shia get 10,000 more army and police jobs. This information will not sit well with the Sunnis’ Awakening.

In Iraq long-term stability and security cannot be built on human resources that have no investment in the foreign policy directions of their own government.

Doug: citing Iranian state media as a source????

Doug: I don’t hang out with the “three monkeys” Do you?

It is a BMP1 and it normally has a 73mm gun in a small turret.
I have now seen that same BMP photographed from 8 different angles on 4 different days as if it is new.
Same thing is happening with the DZIK3 that they captured, then burned and the burned HMMWV. Multiple photos on different days at different angles to give the impression of many vehicles destroyed.

(Note: BTR80/94/3E1 used by ISF are eight-wheeled APCs, not tracks.)

A BMP is a hybred. A light tank’s weapons on an APC hull. Little armor.

An RPG is quite capable of taking out a BMP just like it can take out a Bradley too…

The reason the turret is gone is the ready ammo cooked off and blew the turret.

Mike’s America, I was wondering the source of Azzaman too, so I researched it yesterday. It is one of the widest read Iraqi paper chains in the country. Their online version is, of course, different from their local print versions. To say that they are anti-American in their editorials is an understatement.

According to a Guardian article, Saad Al-Bazzaz (owner of not only Azzman papers, but Iraq’s first private satellite TV station) was accused of using Saudi money to start the venture, and to use it as a propaganda machine. That was early 2005… don’t know what came of the lawsuit.

One of their journalists was kidnapped and executed back in 2007. I suspect their reporter base can be diverse, for I don’t see the value in executing media who support the militant’s cause.

al-Bazzaz was the head of Saddam’s national news agency, state TV and radio networks. He left in 1992 after disagreeing with Saddam’s Kuwait invasion, and became a British citizen, living in London. Still there, I believe.

After Saddam’s removal by US coalition in 2003, he moved the operation back to Baghdad. Thus it’s ironic that is was US action that allows the paper’s free speech, and they use it to promote anti-American scribblings.

On Sunday CIA Director Hayden said that 70% of Basra was under the control of militias and gangs http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/13824a98-ff86-11dc-b556-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

It is a BMP1 and it normally has a 73mm gun in a small turret.

Good point, there are other photos available (though it’s apparently been moved), and concur it’s a BMP-1 (and the turret, such as it is–does appear to be missing from that angle–note apparent hole in hull).

Still, even a casual glance at the first crappy photo was enough to tell it was an APC of some sort. And a small winge, it’s probably okay to call a BMP-3 a hybrid–and a PT-76 is classified as a “light tank” (though a Bradley outweighs either), but don’t think I can buy that in reference to a BMP-1. (Among other things, because the 73mm gun shoots the same round as an RPG-7.) But thanks for the pointer.

BMPs are not tanks, but the media is not known for accuracy or knowledge….

BMPs really do explode very easily and would not pass US safety tests for combat vehicles. They are cramped, under-armored (M2/M3A3s beat them hands down), improperly vented, and poorly designed (the doors in the back of the BMP-1 are fuel pods…. You exit through the top or the rear fuel tanks… think about that). The BMP-1 is the oldest and worst of the series. That said, it still works against unarmored troops.

On the plus side, it has a VERY low profile and can supposedly float like our AAAV7s and LAVs but ONLY in calm water (when the moon is aligned with Venus, etc).

I will also back up that the 14th is one of Iraq’s newest divisions. I do not know why the 9th Mech was not sent in, though it may be deployed along the border or otherwise unavailable.

I am not surprised the media reports the same vehicle as a new kill using different angles. As I have said before, they did this many times reporting IEDs and other attacks. One was the Crude oil fired power plant and neighboring refinery south of the IZ which CNN knew was a power plant/refinery and still reported it as a “massive attack” on the IZ in April 2007.

Note: Elements of the 36th Mech Bde of the IA 9th Div have been in Basrah since November.

Also, six Anbaris were KIA in Basrah and their bodies returned to Ramadi last week.
Considering the IA initial stationing policy, the fact that most Anbaris did not join the IA until last year, and the re-destignation of the 1st IA Div as Strategic Reserve QRF Div: Probably have elements of 1st Div in Basrah.

The BMP did not belong to 14th Div. They were never issued any. That is probably 36th Mech Bde. Although 35th Armor Bde is mostly unlocated ATT. The only IA Bn left in Taji belongs to 1st Div, they are using 2-1 INP Bde to cover most of 9th Mech Div’s home areas…

ChrisG

No problem. I am currently in the minutia of the Apr ISF OOB update for LWJ, so all the data is right at my fingertips.