Posted by Curt on 27 February, 2008 at 9:39 am. 1 comment.


Interesting that a LA Times poll is showing McCain with a lead over both Democrats, even over the Messiah…. although if you take in the margin of error its about dead even or less. A earlier CBS poll showed Obama leading by 12% which is just ridiculous, Ed Morrissey pointed out how they got that result:

They show Obama beating John McCain by twelve points, 50-38. However, the sampling and weighting explains the strange notion that John McCain would only get 38% of a general election vote. The sample of 1152 respondents comprises 358 Republican voters, 420 Democrats, and 337 independents. Here’s how they weight the sample:

Democrats – 419
Republicans – 318
Independents – 325

Get the math? They deducted 40 Republicans, 12 independents, and a grand total of 1 Democrat for their weighted sample. The original configuration would have made Democrats 37.6% of the sample, and Republicans 32% – almost exactly how Rasmussen breaks out party affiliation. Instead, the weighting makes Democrats 39.5% of the sample, and Republicans just a shade under 30%.

And with this LA Times poll the percentage is skewed once again (not as heavily tho) with 1246 registered voters, including 436 Democrat primary voters and 290 Republican primary voters. Still, McCain edged them out. He beats Obama on the economy and immigration but lost to Hillary on both issues (now thats wacky).

The Arizona senator is viewed favorably by 61% of all registered voters, including a plurality of Democrats.

The survey showed that McCain’s potential advantages extend even to domestic issues, where he is considered to be most vulnerable. Even though McCain has joked about his lack of expertise on economic issues, voters picked him over Obama, 42% to 34%, as being best able to handle the economy. However, Clinton led McCain on that issue, 43% to 34%.

“I just think he’s older, he’s more experienced, and he’s got the betterment of the country in mind,” said Robert Fear, 79, a registered Democrat from Newton, Ill., who said he planned to support McCain in November.

Rasmussen’s poll is interesting also:

With the general election campaign season coming soon, voters currently trust John McCain more than Barack Obama on issues of National Security, the War in Iraq, the Economy, and Taxes. Obama is trusted more when it comes to Reducing Government Corruption. The Republican hopeful has a slight lead over the Democratic frontrunner in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

McCain is trusted more by 55% of voters when it comes to National Security issues. Obama is trusted more by just 30% on this point. Just half (51%) of Democrats express more trust in Obama than McCain on national security. Unaffiliated voters prefer McCain by a two-to-one margin.

But, as I’ve said before, polls shouldn’t be trusted. They can be skewed with unbalanced numbers and a leading question PLUS we still have a little over eight months to go until the general and we know how tough a fight against a Messiah can be.

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