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JustADude
15 years ago
Unless someone stands at the poll entrance with a baseball bat, Mitt is supposed to take Utah in a landslide where he is up about 40 points on everyone else.
JustaDude: That would give Romney 36 delegates in a winner take all primary.
I just wish we had some inkling of support for Romney in all those other Western states.
Igor R.
15 years ago
Mike, I suspect Romney will take all the Western states, in terms of achieving the voting majority, other than (necessarily) Arizona and the Pacific Northwest. The North East winner-take-all situation is of course a really bad hurdle. The real cliff-hangers are IMO Georgia for the sheer number of delegates and California (by even 1%) for the psychological boost. Tenn and Mo look pretty much lost to Mitt, but they are still close enough to watch and there has got to be a reason why he made a stop in Tenn. This is one exciting election, and for high stakes!
Igor: What do you think of my overall forecast: 80% chance of gloom?
bbartlog
15 years ago
I think Mitt has a good shot in any caucus state (so far McCain has gotten wiped out in every caucus except Louisiana, and it’s still not clear whether he won there). And there’s a lot of caucus states. Super Tuesday alone: West Virginia, North Dakota, Alaska, Minnesota, Montana, Oklahoma, Colorado. Of these, I expect Romney to do well everywhere except maybe Minnesota.
bbart: Romney has done well in Caucuses. So perhaps we can expect that trend to continue. But West Virginia is an actual state convention. We should have their result by early afternoon.
More specific info on each Super Tuesday state here:
It is not that we think that Romney is that much of a conservative. It is that he is not McCain. McCain is worse than Romney on many of the issues we hld dear. See, there areno more consservatives inthe race, so we have to vote for the lesser of 3 evils. McCain is just bad on 1st amendment, Illegal immigration, Gitmo, and has stabbed the GOP in the back for years, hell he even was thinking about quitting the GOP. Huckabe, well he is the same ilk as Dhimmi Carter. He wouldbe like The Silky Poney Edwards, a populist. That leaves Romeny, unless you think the tin foil hat wearing Ron Paul has any chance of coming out of his cave.
bbartlog
15 years ago
West Virginia is an actual state convention
True enough; I was lumping it with the caucuses because like a caucus it requires organization and commitment. Originally, Romney had the most committed delegates going to the convention and McCain had very few of those – counts:
Uncommitted 583
Romney 210
Huckabee 138
Thompson 116
Paul 95
Giuliani 44
McCain 15
Hunter 4
Keyes 2
However, both Thompson and Giuliani have theoretically thrown their support to McCain and I imagine some of their delegates will follow suit – which might allow McCain to overcome his perennial organizational deficit. But I wouldn’t count on it. Romney is actually going to address the convention from what I hear.
bbartlog
15 years ago
West Virginia:
McCain’s rep just gave a pretty bad speech at the convention. Huckabee is going to have the last word. Paul gave a decent speech, Romney likewise. Between sending a rep (when the other candidates showed up in person), coming in with basically no committed delegates, and having his guy flub his sales pitch I’d say McCain is toast here. But because the election is a runoff until majority strange things could still happen. The worry would be that McCain somehow outlasts Huckabee and then picks up his delegates in the final runoff. But I think it’s actually more likely that the final two will be Huckabee and Romney, at which point anyone who is strategically committed to McCain will go to Huckabee just to deny Romney victory.
bbartlog: Where are you getting those delegate numbers?
It seems every source I look at reports different numbers for delegates. It’s very confusing trying to run a delegate count that can be matched to any strategy for moving forward.
suek
15 years ago
>>But I think it’s actually more likely that the final two will be Huckabee and Romney, at which point anyone who is strategically committed to McCain will go to Huckabee just to deny Romney victory.>>
_That’s_ interesting. I sure don’t see it that way. I don’t think it’s likely that it will be Huckabee and Romney, and I don’t see that everyone committed to McCain will go to Huckabee. If you said that it would be McCain and Romney, and that anyone committed to Huckabee would go to McCain, I’d agree. I suspect Huckabee could be the kingmaker in the crowd…he’d never go to Romney because of the religious thing – and his followers might agree with him. I don’t see McCain as being in that mindset – I think they’d consider Romney.
But then …what do I know! Life surprises me every day!
Igor R.
15 years ago
Mike, I’m in the 60-70% category.
David
15 years ago
The last poll in Colorado was done awhile ago, may be six weeks. Anyway, Rudy and Mitt were running even, with a slight advantage to Mitt, and McCain running a very distant third. When Rudy dropped out last week, there was a feeling most of his support went to Mitt. Simply, there’s a strong dislike for McCain here, particularly in the sizeable active and retired military community.
The one who has invested big in advertising is Ron Paul. Of course, his ads are nonsense, especially his tag line of that “tent cities” have sprung next to neighborhoods that are full of foreclosures. The implicit line is that “it’s the President’s fault” on the foreclosures. “Yeah, Bush pressed the foreclosure button on his desk, just like he pressed the Hurricane Katrina button.”
I would be surprised if McCain wins here in Colorado.
bbartlog
15 years ago
I don’t think it’s likely that it will be Huckabee and Romney, and I don’t see that everyone committed to McCain will go to Huckabee.
Well, you haven’t been following this one as closely as I have. And it did come down to Mitt and Huck, and McCain did throw his votes to Huckabee.
Chris
15 years ago
“He has precisely the same resume as the nuckle-head in office now except he did not fail at all of his businesses as W did.” by CentFla.
I know this is a bit off topic, but how is President Bush a “nuckle-head”?? And, his businesses? I think you might need to use your spell check next time, by the way. It’s “knucklehead”.
Once again I find myself agreeing with bbartlog! Has the world gone MAD?
With the West Virginia result it’s clear there is collusion between McCain and Huckabee. Those kinds of actions are NOT taken without direction from on high.
P.S. bbartlog: Where did you get those delegate numbers?
bbartlog
15 years ago
Second-hand, from here. They don’t appear to be very good in hindsight – they show 1207 delegates and only 1133 voted in the first round, so who knows. But they’re roughly consistent with other reports I’ve seen.
For what it’s worth, it sounds like Paul *also* helped out Huckabee. At least, I see a report that he traded his block of voters for 3 national delegates (see here, read the blog entries…).
bbartlog
15 years ago
Once again I find myself agreeing with bbartlog!
It’s easy when I’m just doing the play-by-play. Wait ’til I actually offer an opinion, you’ll have plenty to disagree with me about 🙂
The links you give are for delegates to the national convention (projected). The figures I show are just for delegates to the WVa state GOP convention.
Unless someone stands at the poll entrance with a baseball bat, Mitt is supposed to take Utah in a landslide where he is up about 40 points on everyone else.
JustaDude: That would give Romney 36 delegates in a winner take all primary.
I just wish we had some inkling of support for Romney in all those other Western states.
Mike, I suspect Romney will take all the Western states, in terms of achieving the voting majority, other than (necessarily) Arizona and the Pacific Northwest. The North East winner-take-all situation is of course a really bad hurdle. The real cliff-hangers are IMO Georgia for the sheer number of delegates and California (by even 1%) for the psychological boost. Tenn and Mo look pretty much lost to Mitt, but they are still close enough to watch and there has got to be a reason why he made a stop in Tenn. This is one exciting election, and for high stakes!
Igor: What do you think of my overall forecast: 80% chance of gloom?
I think Mitt has a good shot in any caucus state (so far McCain has gotten wiped out in every caucus except Louisiana, and it’s still not clear whether he won there). And there’s a lot of caucus states. Super Tuesday alone: West Virginia, North Dakota, Alaska, Minnesota, Montana, Oklahoma, Colorado. Of these, I expect Romney to do well everywhere except maybe Minnesota.
bbart: Romney has done well in Caucuses. So perhaps we can expect that trend to continue. But West Virginia is an actual state convention. We should have their result by early afternoon.
More specific info on each Super Tuesday state here:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=FRC2008013101
I’m finding that delegate numbers are different from one source to the next. I hope someone has a reliable tally.
I can’t believe that anyone would consider Romney a Conservative! He has been pro-abortion, anti-gun, pro-tax increase and pro-gay marriage!
He has precisely the same resume as the nuckle-head in office now except he did not fail at all of his businesses as W did.
This guy is nothing but a pandering hair-do with a pocket full of cash. You are all so easily fooled.
I will not vote for McCain under any circumstance.
Choose some one else.
It is not that we think that Romney is that much of a conservative. It is that he is not McCain. McCain is worse than Romney on many of the issues we hld dear. See, there areno more consservatives inthe race, so we have to vote for the lesser of 3 evils. McCain is just bad on 1st amendment, Illegal immigration, Gitmo, and has stabbed the GOP in the back for years, hell he even was thinking about quitting the GOP. Huckabe, well he is the same ilk as Dhimmi Carter. He wouldbe like The Silky Poney Edwards, a populist. That leaves Romeny, unless you think the tin foil hat wearing Ron Paul has any chance of coming out of his cave.
West Virginia is an actual state convention
True enough; I was lumping it with the caucuses because like a caucus it requires organization and commitment. Originally, Romney had the most committed delegates going to the convention and McCain had very few of those – counts:
Uncommitted 583
Romney 210
Huckabee 138
Thompson 116
Paul 95
Giuliani 44
McCain 15
Hunter 4
Keyes 2
However, both Thompson and Giuliani have theoretically thrown their support to McCain and I imagine some of their delegates will follow suit – which might allow McCain to overcome his perennial organizational deficit. But I wouldn’t count on it. Romney is actually going to address the convention from what I hear.
West Virginia:
McCain’s rep just gave a pretty bad speech at the convention. Huckabee is going to have the last word. Paul gave a decent speech, Romney likewise. Between sending a rep (when the other candidates showed up in person), coming in with basically no committed delegates, and having his guy flub his sales pitch I’d say McCain is toast here. But because the election is a runoff until majority strange things could still happen. The worry would be that McCain somehow outlasts Huckabee and then picks up his delegates in the final runoff. But I think it’s actually more likely that the final two will be Huckabee and Romney, at which point anyone who is strategically committed to McCain will go to Huckabee just to deny Romney victory.
bbartlog: Where are you getting those delegate numbers?
It seems every source I look at reports different numbers for delegates. It’s very confusing trying to run a delegate count that can be matched to any strategy for moving forward.
>>But I think it’s actually more likely that the final two will be Huckabee and Romney, at which point anyone who is strategically committed to McCain will go to Huckabee just to deny Romney victory.>>
_That’s_ interesting. I sure don’t see it that way. I don’t think it’s likely that it will be Huckabee and Romney, and I don’t see that everyone committed to McCain will go to Huckabee. If you said that it would be McCain and Romney, and that anyone committed to Huckabee would go to McCain, I’d agree. I suspect Huckabee could be the kingmaker in the crowd…he’d never go to Romney because of the religious thing – and his followers might agree with him. I don’t see McCain as being in that mindset – I think they’d consider Romney.
But then …what do I know! Life surprises me every day!
Mike, I’m in the 60-70% category.
The last poll in Colorado was done awhile ago, may be six weeks. Anyway, Rudy and Mitt were running even, with a slight advantage to Mitt, and McCain running a very distant third. When Rudy dropped out last week, there was a feeling most of his support went to Mitt. Simply, there’s a strong dislike for McCain here, particularly in the sizeable active and retired military community.
The one who has invested big in advertising is Ron Paul. Of course, his ads are nonsense, especially his tag line of that “tent cities” have sprung next to neighborhoods that are full of foreclosures. The implicit line is that “it’s the President’s fault” on the foreclosures. “Yeah, Bush pressed the foreclosure button on his desk, just like he pressed the Hurricane Katrina button.”
I would be surprised if McCain wins here in Colorado.
I don’t think it’s likely that it will be Huckabee and Romney, and I don’t see that everyone committed to McCain will go to Huckabee.
Well, you haven’t been following this one as closely as I have. And it did come down to Mitt and Huck, and McCain did throw his votes to Huckabee.
“He has precisely the same resume as the nuckle-head in office now except he did not fail at all of his businesses as W did.” by CentFla.
I know this is a bit off topic, but how is President Bush a “nuckle-head”?? And, his businesses? I think you might need to use your spell check next time, by the way. It’s “knucklehead”.
Once again I find myself agreeing with bbartlog! Has the world gone MAD?
With the West Virginia result it’s clear there is collusion between McCain and Huckabee. Those kinds of actions are NOT taken without direction from on high.
P.S. bbartlog: Where did you get those delegate numbers?
Second-hand, from here. They don’t appear to be very good in hindsight – they show 1207 delegates and only 1133 voted in the first round, so who knows. But they’re roughly consistent with other reports I’ve seen.
For what it’s worth, it sounds like Paul *also* helped out Huckabee. At least, I see a report that he traded his block of voters for 3 national delegates (see here, read the blog entries…).
Once again I find myself agreeing with bbartlog!
It’s easy when I’m just doing the play-by-play. Wait ’til I actually offer an opinion, you’ll have plenty to disagree with me about 🙂
bbartlog: Those delegate numbers of yours were so wild I had to wonder. Not surprised they come from the mothership.
There’s disparity even between these two sources:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/republican_delegate_count.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/republican_delegate_count.html
The links you give are for delegates to the national convention (projected). The figures I show are just for delegates to the WVa state GOP convention.
Ok… I missed that. It wasn’t terribly clear in your original remark.