If you haven’t heard by now here is the bad news. McCain won Florida tonight.
I now see no other scenario where Mitt takes it from him. He will win all the lefty states on the 5th, it sounds like Huckabee will stay in for some freakin reason which will prevent a Mitt vs. John slugfest.
And that will be it.
Maybe I’m being pessimistic but I don’t see it shaking out any other way. In November our most left leaning, liberal Republican will take on a even more left leaning liberal Hillary or Obama.
And I will have to vote for McCain.
Hillary or Obama cannot be allowed to have the keys to this country. While its no certainty McCain will nominate a conservative judge to SCOTUS, it is a absolute certainty that Hillary/Obama won’t. I believe McCain will prosecute the war well, instead of running like cowards as Hillary/Obama would.
So for those two reasons, and only those two, I will vote for McCain in November. I will be sick to my stomach doing it but you deal with the cards dealt you.
Lastly, what the hell kind of strategy did Rudy try to pull. That has to be the worst ever.
Here are a few select quotes from The Corner I posted to our Live Chat tonight that may interest some.
Looks like it’s over. The Panhandlers are giving McCain bigger margins of victory.
This is a tough night for the Romney campaign. Fred’s withdrawal should have benefited them more than McCain. If Huck stays in, there’s no prospect of southern victories for Mitt on Super Tuesday. And, if Huck and/or Rudy pull out, their votes on balance are likely to break for McCain.
Rudy’s bizarrely unnecessary suicide strategy will be put out of its misery tonight. The national frontrunner’s sole consolation from his kamikaze kandidacy will be what looks like (at the moment) a second-place finish in Miami. Good to know pulling out of IA, NH, MI, NV and SC to devote all your resources to Florida wasn’t entirely wasted.
Following up on this speculation by Bill Bennett, Time’s Mark Halperin reports: Giuliani expected to endorse McCain, as early as Wednesday — in Los Angeles or Simi Valley.
Huckabee comes in Fourth. He won’t leave. As I and some others said almost from the start, he is vying to be Veep and will continue to try to hold down Romney’s numbers in future primaries. Romney is running against McCain-Huckabee, which will be difficult for him.
Looking at the exits, it seems clear to me that if John McCain edges Mitt Romney tonight, it will be because of the effect of Mike Huckabee splitting the base conservative vote with Romney. You can see it on the abortion questions, the church-going questions, and others. If Huck wasn’t in the race, or was closer to Ron Paul in support, Romney’s total would tick up several points.
The old Rudy Giuliani scenario was to count on multiple GOP candidates splitting the conservative vote and giving him time to gather momentum, most likely with a win in Florida. It turns out that this was a reasonable scenario, just not for Rudy. It would further make sense if, as some are reporting, the mayor will be endorsing the senator soon.
If McCain wins tonight, Mitt can hang in as the Anyone-But-Mac guy. But it would seem clear that, for a significant number of GOP voters, McCain’s “narrative” outpunches his record on amnesty and everything else. If you can’t get out the truth about him in the early single-state primaries, you aren’t going to be able to do it on Super-Duper Tuesday.
The only reason to stay in would be if McCain does something to self-destruct. He tends to get a bit careless, as in 2000, when he attacked “the religious right”. If he were to do something similar on Pre-Super-Duper Monday, Mitt might have a shot at the south. But, absent that, I think we’d be looking at a run of respectable second-place finishes. I think McCain is a weak frontrunner, but a weak frontrunner with high name recognition versus a weak challenger with less name recognition can do well enough to win the nomination.
AP and Fox News call Florida for McCain.
A close second place isn’t any reason for Mitt Romney to hang his head in shame over.
But here’s where it really hurts. We’ve had three major McCain-Romney showdowns – New Hampshire, Michigan, and now Florida. McCain won in New Hampshire, but hey, he won there in 2000, it was home turf for him. Romney won Michigan, but hey, it was a state where his dad is fondly remembered. Now, on pretty much neutral turf, with a diverse set of key demographics, with a lot of voters, a lot of population centers, a lot of driving issues… McCain comes out on top.
And Romney had an 8-to-1 advantage in television advertising.
If the story of Giuliani is endorsing McCain is true, you figure New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut slip into the McCain pile next Tuesday.
Romney’s chances aren’t dead, but his path ahead is rocky and difficult.
With Rudy endorsing McCain, how likely is it that the ticket will be McCain/Rudy now?
See author page
John McShame will put a democrat in the white house. If ignorance is bliss he must be a happy man.
It’s an absolute betrayal by Rudy Giuliani and a slap in the face of all those who supported his early candidacy for him to endorse McCain.
Unforgiveable!
Amongst people who back up their personal opinions with real money McCain has been the strongest candidate for some time. Intrade.com
I have given up. On Feb 5 I will be writing in Fred Thompson and in November hold my nose for McCain. Maybe he will finally talk to the Republicans and not hold hands with the Democrats while running for the President, I doubt it. The MSM will gang up on him and eventually we will have Billary II in the White House
John Ryan: You’re an empty hat.
Giuliani’s stragedy was the one that was all-but-officially endorsed by the “R”NC, one that was supposed to take the power of the nomination away from the early single-staters. Unfortunately, they didn’t count on four things:
– Hillary Clinton not being inevitable.
– Florida being a “petulant” early state that refused to take its marching orders from the national “headquarters”.
– Giuliani being an even worse campaigner than Fred Thompson, and neither taking advantage of semi-home turf in New Hampshire nor reinforcing his early lead in Nevada.
– The independent portion of the rank-and-file finding another single center-left candidate to rally around before Florida.
“…’And I will have to vote for McCain…”
Welcome aboard the Straight Talk Victory Express!!
Too soon to write off Romney entirely, in my opinion. But it looks like an uphill battle for him at this point.
I know this is not going to make any friends here, and I share your disapointment. But this is the reality and I posted this at Captain’s Quarters just a bit ago:
Let’s see here…….two out of sixty-three comments here are facing reality while the rest are stunned and in denial over the events that took place in Florida. What scares me the most are the “conservatives” here that proclaim they will sit out if MAC is the Repub nominee. In the words of the one we are supposed to despise the most, “GIVE ME A BREAK”
Get a grip folks…….John McCain will defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election. John McCain is a conservative. (And, yes he has flaws we can deal with).
For those of you that plan to sit out the general election if McCain is the candidate——you we’re worthless going in. And you are not focused on the big picture, which is defeating the democratic nominee. Would I prefer Mitt Romney.? No, I preferred Fred Thompson, but the last man standing is who I will support.
Let Hillary, Bill, and Obama continue to fracture their party to the point where they will be so weak that the eventual winner will be defeated. But I will not contribute to the same scenario as a Republican. Get some sleep and get over it.
Rov
Sigh — I’m depressed.
I will not sit out the election, but “John McCain” and “Straight Talk” do not go together. However, this time I will not use absentee voting if possible since the last two Presidential elections, my absentee ballot, along with many others in the US Military, was not counted.
Someday I hope a conservative wins the primaries, but it does not appear so this time. Though as much as I do not think McCain is conservative and flips on issues to be liked, he is better than anything the socialist democrats have to offer and sitting out elections is akin to saying “when good people do nothing”.
I would hold my nose and vote for McCain for no other reason than it would cancel a vote for the Beast.
Can you ban John Ryan? All he does is plug that stupid site. He’s little more than a spam bot.
The Republican party has committed suicide. You can tell me to hold my nose and vote for Mcinsane, but save your breath. There wont be a pennies difference between the parties. If you want a Democrap in the White House than vote for the real one not the pretender. No my friends I will never vote for that man.
Just an additional thought. Why do we allow people not in our party or with our mind set to elect our nominees. These open primaries are disaster for us, and the reason they where created. We sit and watch as we are led in the direction the elites want us to go, and do nothing about it. I read the Bible and was a little dubious of the ease of accepting the anti Christ it tells. Well I see perfectly now. Like lambs we are led to the slaughter, and we go willingly. This is not the world I want, but who am I.
This is from today’s L.A. Times:
“John McCain now has a pathway to the Republican presidential nomination. The question is whether he can put his fractured party back together.
The Arizona senator, long the bane of the GOP establishment, showed in Florida that he could begin cobbling together a new Republican coalition — attracting enough support from all corners of the party base to give him a plurality in the biggest and most diverse state to vote so far in the 2008 campaign.
He took about a quarter of conservatives, secured nearly a third of evangelicals, dominated among his typical base of self-described moderates, and won easily among voters who care about authenticity, experience and electability.
In winning Florida, McCain threw off a major critique of his candidacy: He prevailed in an all-Republican primary that excluded the more moderate independents who had ensured McCain’s wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina.”
I hope conservatives will be able to pull together. I doubt Romney has much chance on Super Tuesday. McCain will probably wrap up.
Then we’ll need to unite, start healing the party, and get ready to defeat the Democrats in November.
Mcvain is nothing more than a democrat. I am not voting for him. I don’t give a SHIT that “he is supposedly better than billary or obama”. There is NO difference between them other than they at least are open and honest about their liberalism. Better 4 years of a dhimmi with a chance to regain the Presidency than 4 years of a rino who will ensure dhimmi’s in power for the next umpteen years. I do take this mcvain inevitability being spewed by the lame ass media with a grain of salt. These were the same morons who were laying that BULLSHIT on thick in regards to billary. They’ve been wrong over and over again and would love nothing more than both candidates be liberal. Means the liberals win no matter which candidate gets elected. Romney is no dummy and has the money to get down and dirty. I hope he starts running ads showing just how liberal mcvain really is. A few clips of him ranting and raving wouldn’t hurt either. He needs to take advantage of all the problems those of us who are true conservatives have with the turn coat. And again, my biggest problem with mcvain is his stance on the ILLEGAL INVASION. While the lame ass media is trying to downplay the significance of it as an issue, it is the ISSUE for me. Until WE stop the flow of illegal aliens and close our borders, the economy, GWOT, etc., are all secondary simply because addressing them first is like pissing in the wind.
One wonders what the result would have been had the democrats primary actually have mattered.
Such vitriol…
I felt just as much toward President Bush. I believe that the struggle in the party now is completely his fault. His divisiness was supposed to tear the lame Democratic party apart and instead it has split the Reagan Coalition into fractured Fiscal vs Values vs Defense Conservatives largely because he was a terrible president on all three fronts. Bush blew the Fiscals out of the water by signing off without concern on bridges to nowhere and every spending bill that ever made it to his desk. He grew the size of Government more than any president before him. He blew it for the Values Cons by not sending Pro-Life judges to the SCOTUS but Big Business interest choices. He blew the Defense Cons off by hurting our military by not planning for a war just because he wanted his own little Falkland Islands Victory and when his pals like Rummy clearly had no idea what they were doing he kept them around until after the 06 elections as a slap in the face to the Congressional Candidates who had been carrying his water all those years before.
Bush is not, was not and never will be a Conservative. If you could back that guy and can not back McCain then maybe George breaking the GOP will end up being a good thing for the fringe 10% as you go on to create your own party of former Carter leftists to create the NeoCon party.
You may now call me a crack-pot but know my guy is going to be the next president of the United States…
A McCain supporter who hates Bush…..shocker!
One more reason to dislike the man and his fanbois
Lame…
If McCain wins the nomination and picks Huckabee as his VP choice that will give us two solid reasons not to vote in November.
One more reason to dislike the man and his fanbois
You may now call me a crack-pot but know my guy is going to be the next president of the United States…
True…
Theresa, MSgt (ret), USAF said:
Hillary Clinton or Obama WILL appoint liberal judges to the Supreme Court
Hillary Clinton or Obama WILL withdraw our troops no matter what the ramifications are for an early exit. (Hence, 4000 US souls will have died in vain.)
Hillary Clinton or Obama WILL raise your taxes and increase entitlements that will place a massive burden on our children and grandchildren.
Hillary Clinton or Obama WILL open the boarders to all of their potential voter block and will supply these people with unlimited resources at the taxpayer’s expense.
THIS IS A DISCRIPTION OF A LIBERAL DEMOCRAT
When John McCain was told he would be released from a Viet Cong prison, McCain said he would not go until every man was freed to go with him. He was locked up again until that day happened. McCain WILL NOT forsake our military and will fight on any shore to protect this nation.
John McCain WILL NOT appoint liberal judges.
John McCain WILL NOT increase our taxes or support uncontrollable spending.
John McCain WILL NOT open our boarders (despite his soft stance on immigration) and WILL NOT supply unlimited resources at the taxpayer’s expense.
THIS IS NOT A DISCRIPTION OF A LIBERAL DEMOCRAT AND YES, THERESA—-THERE IS A DIFFERENCE
If all of you are so sure that Romney will be as strong on these principals as McCain, by all means vote for him. (I may also). BUT (Theresa), if John McCain is the Republican nominee, who will you vote for? If you sit out or vote for a Democrat, everything you just wrote here is hypocritical and moot.
Respectfully,
Rovin
Not having voted in any of the Republican primaries, I will not comment as to which of the Republican presidential candidates I would actually support (there is one, and he is not Guiliani).
However I will predict that not one single Conservative who promises to ‘stay home” will do so in November. He/she will not even “hold his/her nose”. The McCain vote will be enthusiastic and include declarations that McCain is the greatest human being ever to run for president, at least since the last Republican nominee.
That is what it means to be Conservative: Loyal to The Party, no matter what, to the end.
Some Democrats have the same affliction, however, as everyone recalls, there actually were “Reagan Democrats”. A reversal of such voting on the part of Republicans is absolutely impossible, no matter whom the Democrats nominated: Now or ever. It is unthinkable for a Conservative to disobey the Party, ever, when it comes to voting for office.
Remember, the Republican Party is the one that requires Virginia primary voters to sign a pledge to vote Republican in the Fall, no matter who is nominated. So I have proof of my declaration.
“However I will predict that not one single Conservative who promises to ’stay home” will do so in November. He/she will not even “hold his/her nose”. The McCain vote will be enthusiastic and include declarations that McCain is the greatest human being ever to run for president, at least since the last Republican nominee.”
Prove it you sycophantic retard.
“Remember, the Republican Party is the one that requires Virginia primary voters to sign a pledge to vote Republican in the Fall, no matter who is nominated. So I have proof of my declaration.”
Prove that they actually do that too idiot.
Folks are spreading the blame of the dilution of conservative principles around, mainly at GWB. There are 2 people folks forget about, Karl Rove and Mel Martinez, who endorsed McCain. Besides being in Congress Martinez was the “titular” head of the GOP.
Tom
Everyone keeps harping on mcvain’s POW days as if that single incident completely absolves him of all the backstabbing he’s done since then. He uses his POW status like al sharpton uses the race card. The man is an ego maniac on par with billy boob klintoon.
My biggest problem with juan mcvain is his support of the illegal alien invasion. He has on his staff an individual (juan hernandez) who is actively working to destroy the sovereignty of the US. He aligned himself with teddy the communist kennedy and called those of us who want our borders shut down and illegals deported racists and bigots. He ranted and raved that calling for ENGLISH to be the official language of this country is insulting to spanish speakers. WTF Rovin? He cares nothing for the conservative principals of the Republican party or that the majority of AMERICANS, on both sides of the great divide, WANT THAT SOUTHERN BORDER SHUT DOWN AND BENEFITS DENIED. Hell the only reason illegals can afford to take jobs below minimum wage is because they suck the welfare teat and suck it hard. And old juan mcvain thinks that’s just peachy, wanting to give them more, and doesn’t think enforcing our immigration laws is necessary, cause you know, mexicans are special (sarcasm off). He must be getting big dollars from the mexican government along with the “free help” of juan hernandez. He’s nothing more than a self serving, back stabbing old school politico who doesn’t give a DAMN about this country. I’ll be voting but will leave the block unchecked if he manages to become the republican nominee. If we are going to go down in flames, let billary or osama/obama be at the stick. At least then the Republicans will have a chance to undo the damage in 4 years.
Those who think that there’s not a dime’s worth of difference between McCain and the Democrats should take a look at this graph comparing the spending proposals of the candidates (here). First, it should give you a good idea of why I (still) support Ron Paul; but second, for those who find Paul unacceptable, it should disabuse you of the idea that McCain is no better than the Dems in any way.
And another thing Rovin, billary and osama/obama making statements on the stump that they are going to “withdraw all our troops when they take office” is nothing but bullshit. Fact is we are going to be in Iraq and Afghanistan for the foreseeable future, regardless of which moron is the President. They will become just like Korea, Japan, Germany, UK, Greece, Iceland, Bosnia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, etc, etc. Permanent bases until the local government asks us to leave. And the Iraqi’s and Afghanis aren’t stupid. They see the long term benefit not only defensively, but economically as well. Both billary and osama/obama are blowing sunshine up the asses of the party faithful with their talk of withdrawal. Sorta like queen piglosi and dirty harry reids promise to impeach President Bush.
Steve,
You are off your meds again and it shows. Your projectionism is sad and trite. You scream about “party loyalty” as you insult conservatives but it is just fine.. no DEMANDED of the left. You and many of the dems will vote leftist even though the dems have fully disenfranchised two states in the primary thus far. That alone screams volumes about the left.
Rovin: As I reported at Flopping Aces last November, McCain told me in our meeting that if I disagreed with him on issues X, Y, or Z that I should not vote for him. “I’m not your candidate” were his exact words and he also repeatedly instructed me to “tell your blogging friends.”
I did not vote for him in the SC primary. I will vote for him in the general election if he is the nominee. And I won’t need to bother supporting him in SC where he will win in November.
But since I have been told directly and in person by McCain that my support is not wanted, I won’t be much motivated to offer the same level of support to the candidate on my blog that I would if the nominee at least expressed a desire to support the conservative principles I hold.
McCain’s support among conservatives like me is notoriously weak and he is apparently happy with that. But perhaps someone should remind him that the moderates and liberals who are currently voting for him do NOT come out and do the groundwork that is essential to success in the general election.
Moderates as a rule do not really care who wins. So, does anyone believe that they will get out there and make the phone calls, put up the yard signs, go door to door and give money to the party and the candidate?
The situation in Fla. was perfect for Mcinsane. The Democrats didn’t compete, many Dems changed their registrations to vote Mcnuts, also southern polling places broke the law by allowing unregistered people to vote. Were being had and were sitting still for it.
One more thing for the record. I would love to smack the side of McCains head at let him know how discusted I am with his immigration policys. He did get a rude awakening last year when the legislation went down in flames. He’s been chewed on and spit out over McCain/Fien-lead and his gang of 14. (WE did manage to seat two good justice’s during his tenure, but I’ll not give him credit for that) Maybe our best hope Mike is (if he is nominated) that the old buzzard still listens enough to change X, Y, and Z. And no one could blame you for not offering support under those circmstances.
jain and others – the fallacy of Dems lining up to vote for McCain is just that. It really makes you look foolish to continue to say the same thing when the very article that Curt linked to last night claimed that there were more Dems registered in the last year than Republicans. What you are claiming – without a shred of proof to back it up – j u s t i s n o t T R U E !! There were more Democrats voting than ever in a primary – so where did those Dems crossing over come from?
The fact is that there are many, many Republicans that want a more moderate choice than they have been presented with in the last seven years. My proof of that is a little thing called the Republican Primary!
And your insane rantings about unregistered voters being allowed to ruin the chances of some other candidate are hilarious. McCain won by 100,000 votes for crying out loud! It was a butt whooping in the most important Primary so far.
In a choice between McCain and anyone else the fringe wing of my party has offered no one.
McCain = Juan Hernandez = Soros
Hillary = Soros
Obama = Soros
This coin has three sides and they are all heads.
Coincidence?
Curt’s analysis is spot on. And a McCain-Huckabee scenario would be the worst as far as I’m concerned.
Igor = Crack Cocaine
Centfla:
What percent of McCain’s votes came from those who identified themselves as conservatives?
He doesn’t care Mike, he isn’t a conservative either so the more liberals who love his guy the better.
Ahh Curt, telling someone what they don’t realize about themselves… How enlightening, while Mike asks what others are calling themselves… Which of these two things actually matter?
Scoreboard fellas.
Re: “You are off your meds again and it shows. Your projectionism is sad and trite. You scream about “party loyalty” as you insult conservatives but it is just fine.. no DEMANDED of the left”
I’m sorry if my prediction offended you. It will prove 100% accurate though.
“I’m sorry if my prediction offended you. It will prove 100% accurate though.”
Considering the number of people here who have said the exact opposite of what you claim and they are conservatives, you are again wrong. Stop projecting your own party’s methods onto others you worthless tool.
Steve,
Every hateful piece of projectionist bile you spout at conservatives offends me.
As I said, I will suport the republicans over ANYTHING the socialist dems put forward. Considering the leftist base and their control over the dems, that is all the more reason to NOT vote democrat.
Maybe someday the dems will move to the center and dump their hard core base. But conservatives have move MORE than enough and given up far too much.
Re: “Considering the number of people here who have said the exact opposite of what you claim and they are conservatives, you are again wrong. Stop projecting your own party’s methods onto others you worthless tool.”
I know what they SAID. I’m predicting what they will DO, and WHY.
And please do not try to deflect this as a “Democratic Rule”. Recall that I mentioned “Reagan Democrats”, and that no such Republican equivalent would ever be permitted.
Evidence of the above in the Virginia Republican Party loyalty oath:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/28/AR2007112802448.html
“Evidence of the above in the Virginia Republican Party loyalty oath:”
Which is likely just an effort to make sure that people voting in the Republican primary actually are REPUBLICANS. Big fucking deal. You attempt to make it seem like this insidious act when all it is meant to do is prevent stuff like what happens in Florida where the independents still go and vote for McCain in the Republican Primary.
“And please do not try to deflect this as a “Democratic Rule”. Recall that I mentioned “Reagan Democrats”, and that no such Republican equivalent would ever be permitted.”
Proving your idiocy again. You’re an elitist moron. You always prescribe these great “virtues” to democrats but immediately declare conservatives are completely incapable of the same. You’re a sycophantic retard.
CentFla, read a little something for me:
Meet the open borders family: McCain, Hernandez, Soros, and the “Reform Institute”
http://michellemalkin.com/2008/01/25/meet-the-open-borders-family-mccain-hernandez-soros-and-the-reform-institute/
And if you want to know about Hil’s and Barry’s Soros connections, slightly more direct, just let me know.