In the wake of demonstrations crowding hundreds of thousands onto the streets of Teheran, the world conjures up visions of the 1979 Islamic revolution. No such event is occurring today. The demonstrations are not revolutionary, but they will bring change.
If we were witnessing a revolution, the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with the rest of the vast network of mullahs, would order the army to wreak havoc on the demonstrating public. There is no overt demand for change in the theological administration of the country. There is, however, a relatively peaceful and powerful request for alternate voices in governance, and for a lifting of oppressive measures.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s opponent Mir-Hossein Mousavi has indicated that he would seek to improve relations with the West and enhance the role of women, however, he should not be mistaken for a reformist. Had he been elected, change within Iran would have been minimal. Mousavi is a supporter of the ruling ayatollahs, and is unlikely to appear confrontational to the well entrenched rulers.
Many Iranians seek progress, but ayatollahs and religion will not easily surrender suzerainty over social, economic, and political life in Iran. Unless the violence on the streets escalates the demonstrations into visibly bloody confrontations that are filmed, and disseminated on YouTube, Khamenei will remain firmly in control for the foreseeable future. He will carefully manage Ahmadinejad’s newfound vigor following his landslide victory, and navigate around the Iranian President’s calls for cleaning up corruption among the powerful clerics. Read the rest of this entry »
The U.N.’s chief nuclear watchdog, Mohamed El Baradei (not exactly a guy in the tank for Bush), in an interview with Al-Arabiya TV, said, quite explicitly, that Iran will be able to produce a nuclear weapon in six months to a year. Via lgf. Read the rest of this entry »
In terms of protecting the American people in the Global War on Terror, George W. Bush is pitching a no-hitter. We hear that our global enemy, al-Qaeda, has effectively been defeated and there is ample news that the war in Iraq is a smashing victory.
Less than a year after his agency warned of new threats from a resurgent al-Qaeda, CIA Director Michael V. Hayden now portrays the terrorist movement as essentially defeated in Iraq and Saudi Arabia and on the defensive throughout much of the rest of the world, including in its presumed haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Read the rest of this entry »
“I voted against preconditions before I voted for them. In between, I got my rookie ass handed to me.”
Barack Obama has done a complete reversal on his signature foreign policy issue – talking to America’s enemies without preconditions. This policy was designed to provide a sharp contrast with President Bush’s “Cowboy Diplomacy.” Senator Obama’s proposal was so radical, even Hillary Clinton didn’t buy into it. From Reuters.
U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama is distancing himself from expectations he would meet Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and taking a more cautious stand on talking to other U.S. adversaries.
With criticism from Republicans turning harsher as Obama moves closer to winning the Democratic nomination battle against rival Hillary Clinton, the Illinois senator has shifted — but not abandoned — his position.
Iran’s alleged research into designing nuclear warheads remains a matter of serious concern and needs “substantive explanations”, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Monday.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) also said in its latest report on Iran that Tehran had 3,500 uranium enrichment centrifuges working at its Natanz underground nuclear facility, a slightly higher number than earlier this year. Read the rest of this entry »
The Telegraph is reporting today the Mahdi Army used Iranian money to recruit unemployed men and pay them up to $300 (£150) a month to carry out attacks against British soldiers. The leaked report details activities of British troops under the command of Major Christopher Job, of the 2nd Lancashire Regiment, between November 2006 and March 2007.
In the report, Major Job discloses that in the course of five months his base was attacked 350 times. Old State Building, which is in the centre of Basra, is the most-attacked British base in recent history.
In an attempt to discover who was behind the attacks, the officer says he established a network of informers, who supplied him with detailed intelligence on the actions of the insurgents and who was behind their funding. Read the rest of this entry »
Just further proof that we need someone in the White House who can deal with a nuclear armed country like Iran. Watch the video, towards the end you will hear the Iranian commander tell the American warship “you will explode in a minute.”
An Iranian confrontation with U.S. Navy ships in the Persian Gulf was a “provocative act,” President Bush said Tuesday, hours before he was to leave for the Mideast on an eight-day visit.
“It is a dangerous situation,” he said at a White House news conference. “They should not have done it, pure and simple. … I don’t know what … their thinking was. But I’m telling you what I think it was. I think it was a provocative act. And my message today, to the Iranians, is they shouldn’t have done what they did.”
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New video from the U.S. Navy out after the president’s news conference shows how tense the situation became Sunday for sailors aboard three U.S. warships in international waters in the Strait of Hormuz. At least five Iranian fast boats closed in quickly. A radio transmission believed to have come from one of the Iranian boats said, “I am coming to you.”
Commanders aboard the USS Port Royal, the USS Hopper and the USS Ingraham were ramping up defensive operations when the radio back and forth happened with the Iranians.
“Inbound small craft, you are approaching a coalition warship operating in international waters. Your identity is not known and your intentions are unclear.Request you alter course immediately to remain clear,” the Navy warned.
The response from the speed boat :”You will explode in a couple of minutes.”
The Iranian fleet “maneuvered aggressively” and then vanished as the American ship commanders were preparing to open fire, said Vice Adm. Kevin Cosgriff. No shots were fired.
In a four-minute, 20-second video released Tuesday by the Pentagon, the small boats — including a bright blue one — can be seen racing near the wake the U.S. ships and crossing close to each other.
The audio and video recordings were made separately, and initially covered much of the more than 20 minute confrontation, but were pulled together and combined by the Navy, the officials said.
In Tehran, Iran’s Foreign Ministry suggested the Iranian boats had not recognized the U.S. vessels. Spokesman Mohammed Ali Hosseini played down the incident. “That is something normal that takes place every now and then for each party,” he told the state news agency IRNA.
Cosgriff disputed Iranian claims that the incident was a routine encounter, saying Iran’s “provocative” actions were “deadly serious” to the U.S. military.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said that its high-speed boats never threatened the U.S. vessels during the encounter, insisting it only asked them to identify themselves, then let them continue into the Gulf. An IRGC commander defended his force’s right to identify ships in the sensitive waterway.
Cosgriff, the commander of U.S. 5th Fleet, which patrols the Gulf and is based in nearby Bahrain, said the American vessels had already been identified by Iranian authorities earlier in the day before the confrontation occurred.
“The group had been successfully queried by an Iranian ship, possibly a Revolutionary Guards ship, and two or three Iranian (shore) stations and an Omani station,” Cosgriff told The Associated Press in a telephone interview Tuesday.
The U.S. commander also pointed out that the American ships were clearly marked and the incident took place during the day when they could be seen. “I can’t help but conclude that it was provocative,” Cosgriff said.
The Pentagon has said the U.S. ships were on the verge of opening fire on the Iranian boats when they fled.
Two of the Iranian boats went to the ship’s left side, three to the right, he said. The two on the left “were more energetic and made a number of runs toward the lead ship, the USS Hopper.”
This is what the Democrat version of the NIE has wrought. An Iranian regime more bold and daring then they have been in some time.
Also, what the hell were the commanders of our ships thinking? Letting these crafts get within 200 yards of our ships? What the hell!
I’m sure they were afraid of starting an international incident but come on, and some point you have to take action….not after its too late. This just gives them more ammunition in believing we don’t have the fortitude to go to war with them.
The key behavioral factor in extinguishing undesirable behavior is never to reinforce the behavior you are trying to extinguish. This fact is essential to understand, particularly when dealing with bullies who hail from a shame-phobic culture. The desire to preserve honor and avoid shame to the exclusion of all else is one of the primary foundations of the culture, and it has the side-effect of giving the individual carte blanche to engage in wrong-doing when they believe they have the upper hand.
In fact, any and all attempts to placate or reason with them will only result in their behavior escalating. That is because they sense weakness; and your weakness presents them with the opportunity to maximize both their own honor (such as it is) and your shame.
Bullies and thugs will not suddenly develop respect for your profound desire for peace and your non-violent, even appeasing, intentions–no matter how sincerely you express them. On the contrary, they conclude that you are weak and that there will be no consequences if they continue to push you around.
No matter how you look at it–either from a behavioral or a psychological perspective–it seems clear that things are only going to be going from bad to worse in the immediate future. And make no mistake about it, Iran will do something like this again. And the next time they will be interested in seeing how much further they can go with their antics–Can they kill an American or two without reprisal? How about kidnap some sailors right off the ship? They already know they can send explosives to Iraq and detain Americans without too much outrage or reprisals.
As Peters says at the beginning of his article, our tepid response to the Iranian attempt to humiliate our Navy has ensured that Iranian provocations will escalate.
Iranians kidnap British sailors, and nothing is done. They rush our ships while throwing objects into the water, nothing is done.
The Commander of these ships screwed up big time in my opinion.
