What Happens to the Democratic Party if Clinton Loses?

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Michael Barone:

There’s been lots of speculation about the fate of the Republican party if (as most of the prognosticators expect and hope) Donald Trump loses. There’s been less speculation, though recent polling suggests it may be in order, about the fate of the Democratic party if Hillary Clinton loses.

Certainly there’s reason to think — or fear — that the Republican party will change. Republicans likely won’t supply the bulk of support for free-trade agreements as they increasingly have for 40 years. Prominent Republicans probably won’t press for mass legalization of illegal immigrants, as they did in 2006, 2007, and 2013.

If Trump loses, the Republican electorate will have become more downscale and elderly — a continuation of a process that’s been in train since the middle 1990s. The long-term migration of voters southward along Interstate 95 will have made the East Coast just about as solidly Democratic as the West Coast, leaving a Republican rump in the interior South and the Great Plains.

Anti-Trump Republicans hope the Trump effect will just go away, and will note that a defeated Trump will not leave behind much in the nature of an institutional apparatus, as the defeated Barry Goldwater arguably did in 1964. But the argument for going back to pre-Trump positions is weakened by the fact that Republicans have lost four of the six presidential elections between 1992 and 2012.

But what if Hillary Clinton loses? The political map in that case will look quite different, with Democratic states confined to the Northeast, West Coast, and a few splotches in between. The presidential Democratic party, like the congressional Democratic party, will be concentrated in heavily Democratic central cities, some sympathetic suburbs, and scattered university towns.

The shock for Democrats if Clinton loses will likely be more severe than for Republicans if Trump loses. “Imagine the best candidate in your party losing to the weakest candidate in the other party,” speculates Dan McLaughlin, writing for National Review, “after years of telling yourself that your party had unlocked the demographic code to a permanent majority.”

One option for Democrats would be to moderate their policies, as the New Democrats urged in the 1980s and Bill Clinton did in the 1990s. After all, that proved pretty successful. But the current Democratic electorate has little stomach for going back to that strategy.

Two decades ago, lots of self-described moderates and even conservatives voted in Democratic primaries. Not so these days. The slump in Democratic primary and caucus turnout, from 38 million in 2008 to 31 million in 2016, was due to a sharp decline in turnout by self-described moderates. Hillary Clinton’s move from her husband’s 1990s triangulation to her near-total acceptance this year of Bernie Sanders’s left-wing platform was a rational response to changes in the Democratic primary electorate.

Some Democrats will blame a Clinton loss on her particular problems — lies about her illicit secret e-mail server, doubts about her health — and if she loses it’s not likely she’ll run again at age 73. So who will?

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really too bad the bitch is dead, it will end the clinton party, and the multi -plastic surgery daughter will fade into the past.

Should Hillary lose, the Democrat party will have to come to its senses and moderate rather than continue to pander to diverse interest groups that merely hope to get power and take over.

Should the Democrats win, through an overwhelming majority in the Supreme Court, illegal immigrants will be granted amnesty and given the right to vote, any and all legal challenges will be defeated and perpetual Democrat rule will ensue.

Should Trump win, with a different majority in the Court to block challenges, the 14th Amendment needs to be permanently clarified to prevent amnesty of illegal immigrants and forever block the practice of “anchor babies”. Illegal immigration should remain illegal and not provide any such benefit or gain.

pre-Trump positions is weakened by the fact that Republicans have lost four of the six presidential elections between 1992 and 2012

That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Dims lost 5 of the 7 elections between 88 and 04. and 7 of 10 between 68 and 04 and were then successful at winning in 08.

@MOS #8541: In case you missed it, Chelsea is ready to jump in and lead the country. With all of her accomplishments she’d make a wonderful President. /s

@Oblamo binLyen:

Chelsea is ready to jump in and lead the country. With all of her accomplishments

Hell yeah,

@Oblamo binLyen: Here’s Chelsea’s problem now… her mommy and daddy have now irrevocably tied her to the corrupt foundation that is causing mommy so many problems right now.

Although, in fairness, Chelsea has as many diplomatic and legislative successes and achievements as mommy does.

Look for Michelle Obama to toss her hat into the ring. She doesn’t need any experience since she’s married to the first half black President.