Trump and Clinton in dead heat in three swing states

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  • FLORIDA: Clinton 43 – Trump 42; Sanders 44 – Trump 42

  • OHIO: Clinton 39 – Trump 43; Sanders 43 – Trump 41

  • PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 43 – Trump 42; Sanders 47 – Trump 41

In a race marked by wide gender, age and racial gaps, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in the key presidential Swing States of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont runs stronger against the likely Republican nominee, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability ratings among voters in each state, compared to Sanders’ split score, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

The presidential matchups show:

  • Florida – Clinton at 43 percent, with 42 percent for Trump and Sanders at 44 percent to Trump’s 42 percent;

  • Ohio – Trump edges Clinton 43 – 39 percent, while Sanders gets 43 percent to Trump’s 41 percent;

  • Pennsylvania – Clinton at 43 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, while Sanders leads Trump 47 – 41 percent.

Quinnipiac Poll

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Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability ratings among voters in each state….

Note the key word: ”voters.”
But Donald Trump has invigorated a new voter, those who were previously non-voters!
It is called the Monster Vote.
It causes an increase of 10% of the approximately 120 million voters who never vote in elections. And those new voters are exactly what you see showing up at Donald Trump primary campaign rallies.

Examples from this past primary season:
1: In 2012 Georgia had 901,470 votes in the Republican primary. The % increase in the South is +45%, we add another 405,661 votes to give us a predicted total of 1.3 million votes in Georgia for the 2016 Republican primary vote.

The predicted republican primary turnout was 1,300,000 (1.3 million) in Georgia, estimating the increase at 45% based on an added monster vote.
Actual republican turnout in Georgia was 1,295,964 (1.295 million) the increase was 44.7% http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/GA-R

2: In 2008 slightly less than 22 million voted in the Republican primary.
In 2012 just over 19 million voted in the primary.

The monster vote predicted a Republican voter turnout model of about 29,500,000 for 2016 (an increase of almost 50%).
Actual Republican Voter turnout (so far) 26,561,719 (an increase almost 50%). http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R

3: In 2008 more than 38 million Democrats voted in the primary (38,111,341). There was no Democrat primary in 2012.

The monster vote predicted a Democrat voter turnout model of 28,450,721 in the 2016 primary (a decrease of around 30%)
Actual Democrat Voter turnout so far 22,355,221 (a decrease of around 30%) http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D

So, what about polls that include those non-voters who are now showing up and voting…..Trump?

4: In 2008 21.9 million Republicans voted in the primary and 58.1 million voted in the general election (265% increase).

In 2012 19.2 million primary -vs- 59.2 million in the general (308% increase).

Barack Obama won in ’08 with 66.5 million / McCain 58.1.

Barack Obama won in ’12 with 62.3 million / Romney 59.2

Based on the current trend there is a projected monster vote of 73,275,000 who will vote in the General Election this fall.
That’s a landslide for Donald Trump.

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Trump got only 38% of the vote in GA You are projecting that all those in the GA GOP primary who did not vote for Trumps are now going to show up and vote for him in Nov?
Eric Erickson has said he will not vote for Trump How many other conservatives will not ?

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@john: Eric Erikson?
A month before the McCain/Obama election Eric Erikson pulled his support for McCain!
Is he a Republican?
Who did he vote for if not McCain?
And, how many listen to him and follow him?
One, two, three?

BTW, I was cold toward McCain, myself.
But not, like Eric E., because he couldn’t win a debate against Obama.
I was peeved that he’d even considered running as VP on a John F Kerry-McCain ticket.
Definitely not something a Conservative would do.
Not even a Moderate, actually.

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